L’École des cotes

FC Porto v Tondela

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-19 19:34 UTC

Score final : FC Porto 2–0 Tondela

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

56 opérateurs (18 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

FC Porto (Local)

Prévision 81.98%1.22cote équitable
EV -4.08%
Avantage -3.49%
Kelly -24.00%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.17

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
79.91%81.94%82.01%85.02%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.101.141.151.1790.91%87.39%86.96%85.47%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Tondela (Visiteur)

Prévision 4.86%20.57cote équitable
EV +16.69%
Avantage +0.695%
Kelly +0.725%
Croissance +0.121%

avec la cote maximale 24.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
4.05%4.98%4.71%6.67%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
14.0018.1317.0024.007.14%5.52%5.88%4.17%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 13.15%7.60cote équitable
EV +18.39%
Avantage +2.04%
Kelly +2.30%
Croissance +0.423%

avec la cote maximale 9.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
10.49%13.08%13.27%14.59%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
6.407.087.009.0015.63%14.12%14.29%11.11%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (56 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nul ▼MargeMise à jour
Sky Bet1.11I 90.09%NM 85.02%EV -9.00%E -8.11%K -81.80%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.49%EV +2.10%E +0.100%K +0.105%G +0.002%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.49%EV +18.39%E +2.04%K +2.30%G +0.423%6.0%2026-04-19 19:30
Tipico (DE)1.11I 90.09%NM 84.10%EV -9.00%E -8.11%K -81.80%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.91%EV -7.62%E -0.401%K -0.424%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.98%EV +11.82%E +1.39%K +1.58%G +0.186%7.1%2026-04-19 19:30
SportsBet1.11I 90.09%NM 83.92%EV -9.00%E -8.11%K -81.80%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.44%EV +2.10%E +0.100%K +0.105%G +0.002%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.64%EV +5.24%E +0.655%K +0.748%G +0.039%7.4%2026-04-19 19:30
Paddy Power1.11I 90.09%NM 83.92%EV -9.00%E -8.11%K -81.80%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.44%EV +2.10%E +0.100%K +0.105%G +0.002%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.64%EV +5.24%E +0.655%K +0.748%G +0.039%7.4%2026-04-19 19:30
FanDuel1.10I 90.91%NM 84.04%EV -9.82%E -8.93%K -98.18%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.40%EV +2.10%E +0.100%K +0.105%G +0.002%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.56%EV +5.24%E +0.655%K +0.748%G +0.039%8.2%2026-04-19 19:30
1xBet1.16I 86.21%NM 83.79%EV -4.90%E -4.22%K -30.62%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 4.05%EV +16.69%E +0.695%K +0.725%G +0.121%7.99I 12.52%NM 12.16%EV +5.11%E +0.639%K +0.731%G +0.037%2.9%2026-04-19 19:29
Coral1.17I 85.47%NM 81.64%EV -4.08%E -3.49%K -24.00%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.62%EV -17.35%E -1.02%K -1.08%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.74%EV -1.34%E -0.179%K -0.206%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-19 19:31
Ladbrokes (UK)1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.08%E -3.49%K -24.00%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.32%EV -27.07%E -1.80%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.64%EV -1.34%E -0.179%K -0.206%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-19 19:30
BetMGM1.16I 86.21%NM 81.33%EV -4.90%E -4.22%K -30.62%G +0.000%15.50I 6.45%NM 6.09%EV -24.64%E -1.59%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.58%EV -1.34%E -0.179%K -0.206%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-19 19:30
William Hill1.14I 87.72%NM 82.51%EV -6.54%E -5.74%K -46.71%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.95%EV -7.62%E -0.401%K -0.424%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.54%EV -1.34%E -0.179%K -0.206%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-19 19:31
Fanatics1.13I 88.50%NM 83.02%EV -7.36%E -6.51%K -56.61%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.47%EV +2.10%E +0.100%K +0.105%G +0.002%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.51%EV -1.34%E -0.179%K -0.206%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-19 19:31
LowVig.ag1.15I 86.96%NM 81.33%EV -5.72%E -4.97%K -38.13%G +0.000%15.50I 6.45%NM 6.03%EV -24.64%E -1.59%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.64%EV -2.65%E -0.359%K -0.415%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-19 19:30
BetOnline.ag1.15I 86.96%NM 81.33%EV -5.72%E -4.97%K -38.13%G +0.000%15.50I 6.45%NM 6.03%EV -24.64%E -1.59%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.64%EV -2.65%E -0.359%K -0.415%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-19 19:30
Marathon Bet1.12I 89.29%NM 83.01%EV -8.18%E -7.30%K -68.16%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.43%EV +2.10%E +0.100%K +0.105%G +0.002%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.56%EV -2.65%E -0.359%K -0.415%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-19 19:29
Pinnacle1.16I 86.21%NM 82.86%EV -4.90%E -4.22%K -30.62%G +0.000%23.32I 4.29%NM 4.12%EV +13.38%E +0.574%K +0.599%G +0.080%7.38I 13.55%NM 13.02%EV -2.92%E -0.395%K -0.457%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-19 19:29
Unibet (FR)1.14I 87.72%NM 82.23%EV -6.54%E -5.74%K -46.71%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.93%EV -7.62%E -0.401%K -0.424%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 12.84%EV -3.97%E -0.544%K -0.630%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-19 19:29
Coolbet1.17I 85.47%NM 82.35%EV -4.08%E -3.49%K -24.00%G +0.000%21.80I 4.59%NM 4.42%EV +5.99%E +0.275%K +0.288%G +0.017%7.28I 13.74%NM 13.23%EV -4.23%E -0.581%K -0.674%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-19 19:29
Bovada1.14I 87.72%NM 82.36%EV -6.54%E -5.74%K -46.71%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.69%EV -2.76%E -0.138%K -0.145%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.95%EV -4.63%E -0.638%K -0.740%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-19 19:28
BetUS1.14I 87.72%NM 82.36%EV -6.54%E -5.74%K -46.71%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.69%EV -2.76%E -0.138%K -0.145%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.95%EV -4.63%E -0.638%K -0.740%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-19 19:29
Neds1.16I 86.21%NM 80.46%EV -4.90%E -4.22%K -30.62%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.67%EV -31.93%E -2.28%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.87%EV -4.63%E -0.638%K -0.740%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-19 19:29
Ladbrokes (AU)1.16I 86.21%NM 80.46%EV -4.90%E -4.22%K -30.62%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.67%EV -31.93%E -2.28%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.87%EV -4.63%E -0.638%K -0.740%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-19 19:29
ATG (SE)1.17I 85.47%NM 80.91%EV -4.08%E -3.49%K -24.00%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.57%EV -17.35%E -1.02%K -1.08%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.52%EV -7.92%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-19 19:30
Svenska Spel1.17I 85.47%NM 80.91%EV -4.08%E -3.49%K -24.00%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.57%EV -17.35%E -1.02%K -1.08%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.52%EV -7.92%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-19 19:30
888sport1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -5.72%E -4.97%K -38.13%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.49%EV +2.10%E +0.100%K +0.105%G +0.002%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -7.92%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-19 19:29
888sport (SE)1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -5.72%E -4.97%K -38.13%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.49%EV +2.10%E +0.100%K +0.105%G +0.002%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -7.92%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-19 19:29
Mr Green (SE)1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -5.72%E -4.97%K -38.13%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.49%EV +2.10%E +0.100%K +0.105%G +0.002%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -7.92%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-19 19:29
Casumo1.16I 86.21%NM 80.76%EV -4.90%E -4.22%K -30.62%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.86%EV -22.21%E -1.39%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -7.92%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-19 19:30
Grosvenor1.16I 86.21%NM 80.76%EV -4.90%E -4.22%K -30.62%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.86%EV -22.21%E -1.39%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -7.92%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-19 19:31
Bally Bet1.16I 86.21%NM 80.76%EV -4.90%E -4.22%K -30.62%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.86%EV -22.21%E -1.39%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -7.92%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-19 19:30
betPARX1.16I 86.21%NM 80.76%EV -4.90%E -4.22%K -30.62%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.86%EV -22.21%E -1.39%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -7.92%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-19 19:30
BoyleSports1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -6.54%E -5.74%K -46.71%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.46%EV +2.10%E +0.100%K +0.105%G +0.002%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -7.92%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-19 19:30
Unibet (UK)1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -6.54%E -5.74%K -46.71%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.46%EV +2.10%E +0.100%K +0.105%G +0.002%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -7.92%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-19 19:31
DraftKings1.15I 86.96%NM 80.90%EV -5.72%E -4.97%K -38.13%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.81%EV -22.21%E -1.39%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.29%EV -7.92%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-19 19:30
Betway1.14I 87.72%NM 81.31%EV -6.54%E -5.74%K -46.71%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.45%EV -17.35%E -1.02%K -1.08%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -7.92%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-19 19:30
Bet Victor1.12I 89.29%NM 81.57%EV -8.18%E -7.30%K -68.16%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.37%EV -17.35%E -1.02%K -1.08%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -7.92%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-19 19:29
Everygame1.15I 86.96%NM 81.62%EV -5.72%E -4.97%K -38.13%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.47%EV +2.10%E +0.100%K +0.105%G +0.002%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.91%EV -11.21%E -1.66%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-19 19:29
Betclic (FR)1.15I 86.96%NM 81.13%EV -5.72%E -4.97%K -38.13%G +0.000%18.50I 5.41%NM 5.04%EV -10.06%E -0.544%K -0.575%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.82%EV -11.21%E -1.66%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-19 19:25
Unibet1.15I 86.96%NM 80.50%EV -5.72%E -4.97%K -38.13%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.79%EV -22.21%E -1.39%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.71%EV -11.21%E -1.66%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-19 19:30
Unibet (NL)1.15I 86.96%NM 80.50%EV -5.72%E -4.97%K -38.13%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.79%EV -22.21%E -1.39%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.71%EV -11.21%E -1.66%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-19 19:30
TABtouch1.15I 86.96%NM 80.50%EV -5.72%E -4.97%K -38.13%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.79%EV -22.21%E -1.39%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.71%EV -11.21%E -1.66%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-19 19:30
Unibet (SE)1.15I 86.96%NM 80.50%EV -5.72%E -4.97%K -38.13%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.79%EV -22.21%E -1.39%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.71%EV -11.21%E -1.66%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-19 19:30
LiveScore Bet1.14I 87.72%NM 80.64%EV -6.54%E -5.74%K -46.71%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.75%EV -22.21%E -1.39%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.62%EV -11.21%E -1.66%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-19 19:31
LeoVegas (SE)1.14I 87.72%NM 80.64%EV -6.54%E -5.74%K -46.71%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.75%EV -22.21%E -1.39%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.62%EV -11.21%E -1.66%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-19 19:30
Winamax (DE)1.14I 87.72%NM 80.33%EV -6.54%E -5.74%K -46.71%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -27.07%E -1.80%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.57%EV -11.21%E -1.66%K -1.95%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-19 19:30
Betr (AU)1.17I 85.47%NM 80.08%EV -4.08%E -3.49%K -24.00%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.51%EV -17.35%E -1.02%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.41%EV -14.49%E -2.23%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-19 19:29
PlayUp1.15I 86.96%NM 81.19%EV -5.72%E -4.97%K -38.13%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.45%EV +2.10%E +0.100%K +0.105%G +0.002%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -14.49%E -2.23%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-19 19:30
PointsBet (AU)1.15I 86.96%NM 80.35%EV -5.72%E -4.97%K -38.13%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.44%EV -17.35%E -1.02%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.22%EV -14.49%E -2.23%K -2.64%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-19 19:29
Bet Right1.15I 86.96%NM 80.08%EV -5.72%E -4.97%K -38.13%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.76%EV -22.21%E -1.39%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -14.49%E -2.23%K -2.64%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-19 19:29
betfred_uk1.14I 87.72%NM 79.91%EV -6.54%E -5.74%K -46.71%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.07%EV -27.07%E -1.80%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.02%EV -14.49%E -2.23%K -2.64%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-19 19:29
Virgin Bet1.13I 88.50%NM 80.36%EV -7.36%E -6.51%K -56.61%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.68%EV -22.21%E -1.39%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.97%EV -14.49%E -2.23%K -2.64%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-19 19:31
PMU (FR)1.13I 88.50%NM 80.36%EV -7.36%E -6.51%K -56.61%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.68%EV -22.21%E -1.39%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.97%EV -14.49%E -2.23%K -2.64%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-19 19:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.11I 90.09%NM 81.55%EV -9.00%E -8.11%K -81.80%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.53%EV -2.76%E -0.138%K -0.145%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.93%EV -14.49%E -2.23%K -2.64%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-19 19:30
Winamax (FR)1.13I 88.50%NM 80.05%EV -7.36%E -6.51%K -56.61%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.03%EV -27.07%E -1.80%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.92%EV -14.49%E -2.23%K -2.64%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-19 19:30
LeoVegas1.12I 89.29%NM 80.50%EV -8.18%E -7.30%K -68.16%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.63%EV -22.21%E -1.39%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.87%EV -14.49%E -2.23%K -2.64%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-19 19:30
Betsson1.15I 86.96%NM 81.17%EV -5.72%E -4.97%K -38.13%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.24%EV +6.96%E +0.316%K +0.332%G +0.023%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.59%EV -15.81%E -2.47%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-19 19:31
NordicBet1.15I 86.96%NM 81.17%EV -5.72%E -4.97%K -38.13%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.24%EV +6.96%E +0.316%K +0.332%G +0.023%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.59%EV -15.81%E -2.47%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-19 19:31
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.16I 86.21%NM 85.85%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.56%9.40I 10.64%NM 10.59%0.4%2026-04-19 19:31
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.16I 86.21%NM 85.54%27.00I 3.70%NM 3.68%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.79%0.8%2026-04-19 19:30
Matchbook1.16I 86.21%NM 85.54%27.00I 3.70%NM 3.68%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.79%0.8%2026-04-19 19:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.16I 86.21%NM 85.45%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.54%9.00I 11.11%NM 11.01%0.9%2026-04-19 19:31
Smarkets1.15I 86.96%NM 85.45%27.03I 3.70%NM 3.64%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.92%1.8%2026-04-19 19:31
Kalshi1.15I 86.96%NM 85.29%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.92%9.09I 11.00%NM 10.79%2.0%2026-04-19 19:30