La escuela de los momios

FC Porto v Tondela

Inicio: 2026-04-19 19:34 UTC

Final: FC Porto 2–0 Tondela

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

FC Porto (Local)

Predicción 81.98%1.22momio equitativo
EV -4.08%
Ventaja -3.49%
Kelly -24.00%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.17

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
79.91%81.94%82.01%85.02%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.101.141.151.1790.91%87.39%86.96%85.47%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Tondela (Visitante)

Predicción 4.86%20.57momio equitativo
EV +16.69%
Ventaja +0.695%
Kelly +0.725%
Crecimiento +0.121%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 24.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
4.05%4.98%4.71%6.67%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
14.0018.1317.0024.007.14%5.52%5.88%4.17%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 13.15%7.60momio equitativo
EV +18.39%
Ventaja +2.04%
Kelly +2.30%
Crecimiento +0.423%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 9.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
10.49%13.08%13.27%14.59%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
6.407.087.009.0015.63%14.12%14.29%11.11%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
Sky Bet1.11I 90.09%NM 85.02%EV -9.00%E -8.11%K -81.80%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.49%EV +2.10%E +0.100%K +0.105%G +0.002%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.49%EV +18.39%E +2.04%K +2.30%G +0.423%6.0%2026-04-19 19:30
Tipico (DE)1.11I 90.09%NM 84.10%EV -9.00%E -8.11%K -81.80%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.91%EV -7.62%E -0.401%K -0.424%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.98%EV +11.82%E +1.39%K +1.58%G +0.186%7.1%2026-04-19 19:30
SportsBet1.11I 90.09%NM 83.92%EV -9.00%E -8.11%K -81.80%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.44%EV +2.10%E +0.100%K +0.105%G +0.002%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.64%EV +5.24%E +0.655%K +0.748%G +0.039%7.4%2026-04-19 19:30
Paddy Power1.11I 90.09%NM 83.92%EV -9.00%E -8.11%K -81.80%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.44%EV +2.10%E +0.100%K +0.105%G +0.002%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.64%EV +5.24%E +0.655%K +0.748%G +0.039%7.4%2026-04-19 19:30
FanDuel1.10I 90.91%NM 84.04%EV -9.82%E -8.93%K -98.18%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.40%EV +2.10%E +0.100%K +0.105%G +0.002%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.56%EV +5.24%E +0.655%K +0.748%G +0.039%8.2%2026-04-19 19:30
1xBet1.16I 86.21%NM 83.79%EV -4.90%E -4.22%K -30.62%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 4.05%EV +16.69%E +0.695%K +0.725%G +0.121%7.99I 12.52%NM 12.16%EV +5.11%E +0.639%K +0.731%G +0.037%2.9%2026-04-19 19:29
Coral1.17I 85.47%NM 81.64%EV -4.08%E -3.49%K -24.00%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.62%EV -17.35%E -1.02%K -1.08%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.74%EV -1.34%E -0.179%K -0.206%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-19 19:31
Ladbrokes (UK)1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.08%E -3.49%K -24.00%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.32%EV -27.07%E -1.80%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.64%EV -1.34%E -0.179%K -0.206%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-19 19:30
BetMGM1.16I 86.21%NM 81.33%EV -4.90%E -4.22%K -30.62%G +0.000%15.50I 6.45%NM 6.09%EV -24.64%E -1.59%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.58%EV -1.34%E -0.179%K -0.206%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-19 19:30
William Hill1.14I 87.72%NM 82.51%EV -6.54%E -5.74%K -46.71%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.95%EV -7.62%E -0.401%K -0.424%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.54%EV -1.34%E -0.179%K -0.206%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-19 19:31
Fanatics1.13I 88.50%NM 83.02%EV -7.36%E -6.51%K -56.61%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.47%EV +2.10%E +0.100%K +0.105%G +0.002%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.51%EV -1.34%E -0.179%K -0.206%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-19 19:31
LowVig.ag1.15I 86.96%NM 81.33%EV -5.72%E -4.97%K -38.13%G +0.000%15.50I 6.45%NM 6.03%EV -24.64%E -1.59%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.64%EV -2.65%E -0.359%K -0.415%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-19 19:30
BetOnline.ag1.15I 86.96%NM 81.33%EV -5.72%E -4.97%K -38.13%G +0.000%15.50I 6.45%NM 6.03%EV -24.64%E -1.59%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.64%EV -2.65%E -0.359%K -0.415%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-19 19:30
Marathon Bet1.12I 89.29%NM 83.01%EV -8.18%E -7.30%K -68.16%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.43%EV +2.10%E +0.100%K +0.105%G +0.002%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.56%EV -2.65%E -0.359%K -0.415%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-19 19:29
Pinnacle1.16I 86.21%NM 82.86%EV -4.90%E -4.22%K -30.62%G +0.000%23.32I 4.29%NM 4.12%EV +13.38%E +0.574%K +0.599%G +0.080%7.38I 13.55%NM 13.02%EV -2.92%E -0.395%K -0.457%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-19 19:29
Unibet (FR)1.14I 87.72%NM 82.23%EV -6.54%E -5.74%K -46.71%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.93%EV -7.62%E -0.401%K -0.424%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 12.84%EV -3.97%E -0.544%K -0.630%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-19 19:29
Coolbet1.17I 85.47%NM 82.35%EV -4.08%E -3.49%K -24.00%G +0.000%21.80I 4.59%NM 4.42%EV +5.99%E +0.275%K +0.288%G +0.017%7.28I 13.74%NM 13.23%EV -4.23%E -0.581%K -0.674%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-19 19:29
Bovada1.14I 87.72%NM 82.36%EV -6.54%E -5.74%K -46.71%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.69%EV -2.76%E -0.138%K -0.145%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.95%EV -4.63%E -0.638%K -0.740%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-19 19:28
BetUS1.14I 87.72%NM 82.36%EV -6.54%E -5.74%K -46.71%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.69%EV -2.76%E -0.138%K -0.145%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.95%EV -4.63%E -0.638%K -0.740%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-19 19:29
Neds1.16I 86.21%NM 80.46%EV -4.90%E -4.22%K -30.62%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.67%EV -31.93%E -2.28%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.87%EV -4.63%E -0.638%K -0.740%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-19 19:29
Ladbrokes (AU)1.16I 86.21%NM 80.46%EV -4.90%E -4.22%K -30.62%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.67%EV -31.93%E -2.28%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.87%EV -4.63%E -0.638%K -0.740%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-19 19:29
ATG (SE)1.17I 85.47%NM 80.91%EV -4.08%E -3.49%K -24.00%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.57%EV -17.35%E -1.02%K -1.08%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.52%EV -7.92%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-19 19:30
Svenska Spel1.17I 85.47%NM 80.91%EV -4.08%E -3.49%K -24.00%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.57%EV -17.35%E -1.02%K -1.08%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.52%EV -7.92%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-19 19:30
888sport1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -5.72%E -4.97%K -38.13%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.49%EV +2.10%E +0.100%K +0.105%G +0.002%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -7.92%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-19 19:29
888sport (SE)1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -5.72%E -4.97%K -38.13%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.49%EV +2.10%E +0.100%K +0.105%G +0.002%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -7.92%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-19 19:29
Mr Green (SE)1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -5.72%E -4.97%K -38.13%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.49%EV +2.10%E +0.100%K +0.105%G +0.002%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -7.92%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-19 19:29
Casumo1.16I 86.21%NM 80.76%EV -4.90%E -4.22%K -30.62%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.86%EV -22.21%E -1.39%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -7.92%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-19 19:30
Grosvenor1.16I 86.21%NM 80.76%EV -4.90%E -4.22%K -30.62%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.86%EV -22.21%E -1.39%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -7.92%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-19 19:31
Bally Bet1.16I 86.21%NM 80.76%EV -4.90%E -4.22%K -30.62%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.86%EV -22.21%E -1.39%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -7.92%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-19 19:30
betPARX1.16I 86.21%NM 80.76%EV -4.90%E -4.22%K -30.62%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.86%EV -22.21%E -1.39%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -7.92%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-19 19:30
BoyleSports1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -6.54%E -5.74%K -46.71%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.46%EV +2.10%E +0.100%K +0.105%G +0.002%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -7.92%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-19 19:30
Unibet (UK)1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -6.54%E -5.74%K -46.71%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.46%EV +2.10%E +0.100%K +0.105%G +0.002%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -7.92%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-19 19:31
DraftKings1.15I 86.96%NM 80.90%EV -5.72%E -4.97%K -38.13%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.81%EV -22.21%E -1.39%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.29%EV -7.92%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-19 19:30
Betway1.14I 87.72%NM 81.31%EV -6.54%E -5.74%K -46.71%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.45%EV -17.35%E -1.02%K -1.08%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -7.92%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-19 19:30
Bet Victor1.12I 89.29%NM 81.57%EV -8.18%E -7.30%K -68.16%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.37%EV -17.35%E -1.02%K -1.08%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -7.92%E -1.13%K -1.32%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-19 19:29
Everygame1.15I 86.96%NM 81.62%EV -5.72%E -4.97%K -38.13%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.47%EV +2.10%E +0.100%K +0.105%G +0.002%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.91%EV -11.21%E -1.66%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-19 19:29
Betclic (FR)1.15I 86.96%NM 81.13%EV -5.72%E -4.97%K -38.13%G +0.000%18.50I 5.41%NM 5.04%EV -10.06%E -0.544%K -0.575%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.82%EV -11.21%E -1.66%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-19 19:25
Unibet1.15I 86.96%NM 80.50%EV -5.72%E -4.97%K -38.13%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.79%EV -22.21%E -1.39%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.71%EV -11.21%E -1.66%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-19 19:30
Unibet (NL)1.15I 86.96%NM 80.50%EV -5.72%E -4.97%K -38.13%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.79%EV -22.21%E -1.39%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.71%EV -11.21%E -1.66%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-19 19:30
TABtouch1.15I 86.96%NM 80.50%EV -5.72%E -4.97%K -38.13%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.79%EV -22.21%E -1.39%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.71%EV -11.21%E -1.66%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-19 19:30
Unibet (SE)1.15I 86.96%NM 80.50%EV -5.72%E -4.97%K -38.13%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.79%EV -22.21%E -1.39%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.71%EV -11.21%E -1.66%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-19 19:30
LiveScore Bet1.14I 87.72%NM 80.64%EV -6.54%E -5.74%K -46.71%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.75%EV -22.21%E -1.39%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.62%EV -11.21%E -1.66%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-19 19:31
LeoVegas (SE)1.14I 87.72%NM 80.64%EV -6.54%E -5.74%K -46.71%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.75%EV -22.21%E -1.39%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.62%EV -11.21%E -1.66%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-19 19:30
Winamax (DE)1.14I 87.72%NM 80.33%EV -6.54%E -5.74%K -46.71%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -27.07%E -1.80%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.57%EV -11.21%E -1.66%K -1.95%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-19 19:30
Betr (AU)1.17I 85.47%NM 80.08%EV -4.08%E -3.49%K -24.00%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.51%EV -17.35%E -1.02%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.41%EV -14.49%E -2.23%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-19 19:29
PlayUp1.15I 86.96%NM 81.19%EV -5.72%E -4.97%K -38.13%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.45%EV +2.10%E +0.100%K +0.105%G +0.002%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -14.49%E -2.23%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-19 19:30
PointsBet (AU)1.15I 86.96%NM 80.35%EV -5.72%E -4.97%K -38.13%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.44%EV -17.35%E -1.02%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.22%EV -14.49%E -2.23%K -2.64%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-19 19:29
Bet Right1.15I 86.96%NM 80.08%EV -5.72%E -4.97%K -38.13%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.76%EV -22.21%E -1.39%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -14.49%E -2.23%K -2.64%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-19 19:29
betfred_uk1.14I 87.72%NM 79.91%EV -6.54%E -5.74%K -46.71%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.07%EV -27.07%E -1.80%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.02%EV -14.49%E -2.23%K -2.64%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-19 19:29
Virgin Bet1.13I 88.50%NM 80.36%EV -7.36%E -6.51%K -56.61%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.68%EV -22.21%E -1.39%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.97%EV -14.49%E -2.23%K -2.64%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-19 19:31
PMU (FR)1.13I 88.50%NM 80.36%EV -7.36%E -6.51%K -56.61%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.68%EV -22.21%E -1.39%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.97%EV -14.49%E -2.23%K -2.64%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-19 19:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.11I 90.09%NM 81.55%EV -9.00%E -8.11%K -81.80%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.53%EV -2.76%E -0.138%K -0.145%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.93%EV -14.49%E -2.23%K -2.64%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-19 19:30
Winamax (FR)1.13I 88.50%NM 80.05%EV -7.36%E -6.51%K -56.61%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.03%EV -27.07%E -1.80%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.92%EV -14.49%E -2.23%K -2.64%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-19 19:30
LeoVegas1.12I 89.29%NM 80.50%EV -8.18%E -7.30%K -68.16%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.63%EV -22.21%E -1.39%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.87%EV -14.49%E -2.23%K -2.64%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-19 19:30
Betsson1.15I 86.96%NM 81.17%EV -5.72%E -4.97%K -38.13%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.24%EV +6.96%E +0.316%K +0.332%G +0.023%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.59%EV -15.81%E -2.47%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-19 19:31
NordicBet1.15I 86.96%NM 81.17%EV -5.72%E -4.97%K -38.13%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.24%EV +6.96%E +0.316%K +0.332%G +0.023%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.59%EV -15.81%E -2.47%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-19 19:31
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.16I 86.21%NM 85.85%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.56%9.40I 10.64%NM 10.59%0.4%2026-04-19 19:31
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.16I 86.21%NM 85.54%27.00I 3.70%NM 3.68%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.79%0.8%2026-04-19 19:30
Matchbook1.16I 86.21%NM 85.54%27.00I 3.70%NM 3.68%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.79%0.8%2026-04-19 19:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.16I 86.21%NM 85.45%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.54%9.00I 11.11%NM 11.01%0.9%2026-04-19 19:31
Smarkets1.15I 86.96%NM 85.45%27.03I 3.70%NM 3.64%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.92%1.8%2026-04-19 19:31
Kalshi1.15I 86.96%NM 85.29%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.92%9.09I 11.00%NM 10.79%2.0%2026-04-19 19:30