CF Estrela v Sporting Lisbon

2026-08-08 19:30 UTC — Primeira Liga - Portugal

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

76%

16%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

CF Estrela (Local)

Prediction 8.36%11.97fair odd

EV +0.260%

Edge +0.022%

Kelly +0.024%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 12.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

7.94%8.37%8.37%10.83%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

7.7510.5911.0012.0012.90%9.44%9.09%8.33%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sporting Lisbon (Visit)

Prediction 75.73%1.32fair odd

EV -5.33%

Edge -4.27%

Kelly -21.33%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

72.38%75.67%75.82%76.99%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.161.221.211.2586.21%82.21%82.64%80.00%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 15.91%6.28fair odd

EV -0.552%

Edge -0.088%

Kelly -0.105%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

14.91%15.96%15.81%16.95%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

5.005.725.756.2520.00%17.47%17.39%16.00%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
Coolbet	12.00I 8.33%NM 7.94%EV +0.260%E +0.022%K +0.024%G +0.000%	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.82%EV -6.09%E -4.91%K -25.38%G +0.000%	6.25I 16.00%NM 15.24%EV -0.552%E -0.088%K -0.105%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-07-27 11:50
Betr (AU)	11.50I 8.70%NM 8.20%EV -3.92%E -0.341%K -0.373%G +0.000%	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.07%EV -6.09%E -4.91%K -25.38%G +0.000%	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.72%EV -4.53%E -0.755%K -0.906%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-27 11:50
Fanatics	11.50I 8.70%NM 8.20%EV -3.92%E -0.341%K -0.373%G +0.000%	1.24I 80.65%NM 76.07%EV -6.09%E -4.91%K -25.38%G +0.000%	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.72%EV -4.53%E -0.755%K -0.906%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-27 13:01
SportsBet	11.50I 8.70%NM 8.10%EV -3.92%E -0.341%K -0.373%G +0.000%	1.21I 82.64%NM 76.99%EV -8.36%E -6.91%K -39.82%G +0.000%	6.25I 16.00%NM 14.91%EV -0.552%E -0.088%K -0.105%G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-07-27 11:50
888sport	11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%EV -8.09%E -0.736%K -0.809%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 74.58%EV -5.33%E -4.27%K -21.33%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -12.49%E -2.27%K -2.77%G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-07-27 12:55
888sport (SE)	11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%EV -8.09%E -0.736%K -0.809%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 74.58%EV -5.33%E -4.27%K -21.33%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -12.49%E -2.27%K -2.77%G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-07-27 12:55
Mr Green (SE)	11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%EV -8.09%E -0.736%K -0.809%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 74.58%EV -5.33%E -4.27%K -21.33%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -12.49%E -2.27%K -2.77%G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-07-27 12:55
Bet Right	11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -8.09%E -0.736%K -0.809%G +0.000%	1.23I 81.30%NM 75.43%EV -6.85%E -5.57%K -29.77%G +0.000%	5.75I 17.39%NM 16.14%EV -8.51%E -1.48%K -1.79%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-07-27 11:49
FanDuel	11.00I 9.09%NM 8.39%EV -8.09%E -0.736%K -0.809%G +0.000%	1.21I 82.64%NM 76.24%EV -8.36%E -6.91%K -39.82%G +0.000%	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.37%EV -4.53%E -0.755%K -0.906%G +0.000%	8.4%	2026-07-27 11:48
Paddy Power	11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -8.09%E -0.736%K -0.809%G +0.000%	1.20I 83.33%NM 76.39%EV -9.12%E -7.60%K -45.60%G +0.000%	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -4.53%E -0.755%K -0.906%G +0.000%	9.1%	2026-07-27 11:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)	11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -8.09%E -0.736%K -0.809%G +0.000%	1.20I 83.33%NM 76.39%EV -9.12%E -7.60%K -45.60%G +0.000%	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -4.53%E -0.755%K -0.906%G +0.000%	9.1%	2026-07-27 11:50
BoyleSports	11.00I 9.09%NM 8.32%EV -8.09%E -0.736%K -0.809%G +0.000%	1.22I 81.97%NM 75.03%EV -7.61%E -6.23%K -34.57%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -12.49%E -2.27%K -2.77%G +0.000%	9.2%	2026-07-27 10:49
Betclic (FR)	10.25I 9.76%NM 8.89%EV -14.36%E -1.40%K -1.55%G +0.000%	1.21I 82.64%NM 75.27%EV -8.36%E -6.91%K -39.82%G +0.000%	5.75I 17.39%NM 15.84%EV -8.51%E -1.48%K -1.79%G +0.000%	9.8%	2026-07-27 10:49
Sky Bet	9.50I 10.53%NM 9.40%EV -20.63%E -2.17%K -2.43%G +0.000%	1.20I 83.33%NM 74.38%EV -9.12%E -7.60%K -45.60%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 16.23%EV -12.49%E -2.27%K -2.77%G +0.000%	12.0%	2026-07-27 11:50
Unibet (FR)	9.50I 10.53%NM 9.28%EV -20.63%E -2.17%K -2.43%G +0.000%	1.19I 84.03%NM 74.09%EV -9.88%E -8.30%K -51.99%G +0.000%	5.30I 18.87%NM 16.63%EV -15.67%E -2.96%K -3.64%G +0.000%	13.4%	2026-07-27 10:50
Winamax (DE)	8.50I 11.76%NM 10.26%EV -28.98%E -3.41%K -3.86%G +0.000%	1.18I 84.75%NM 73.89%EV -10.63%E -9.01%K -59.08%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 15.85%EV -12.49%E -2.27%K -2.77%G +0.000%	14.7%	2026-07-27 10:50
Winamax (FR)	7.75I 12.90%NM 10.83%EV -35.25%E -4.55%K -5.22%G +0.000%	1.16I 86.21%NM 72.38%EV -12.15%E -10.47%K -75.93%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 16.79%EV -20.44%E -4.09%K -5.11%G +0.000%	19.1%	2026-07-27 10:45

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.