Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

CF Estrela v Sporting Lisbon

Kickoff: 2026-08-08 19:30 UTC

Final: CF Estrela 2–2 Sporting Lisbon

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

CF Estrela (Local)

Prediction 10.43%9.59fair odd
EV +4.32%
Edge +0.432%
Kelly +0.481%
Growth +0.021%

assuming max odds 10.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.35%10.51%10.42%12.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.009.129.5010.0014.29%10.97%10.53%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sporting Lisbon (Visit)

Prediction 71.22%1.40fair odd
EV -3.85%
Edge -2.85%
Kelly -11.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.05%71.16%71.31%73.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.291.301.3581.97%77.40%76.92%74.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 18.35%5.45fair odd
EV +0.904%
Edge +0.164%
Kelly +0.201%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.00%18.33%18.27%19.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.605.135.105.5021.74%19.48%19.61%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: CF Estrela (Local): 10.43%; Sporting Lisbon (Visit): 71.22%; Draw: 18.35%. For CF Estrela (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.59. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 10.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.32%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.51%EV +4.32%E +0.432%K +0.481%G +0.021%1.30I 76.92%NM 73.19%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.71%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.30%EV +0.904%E +0.164%K +0.201%G +0.002%5.1%2026-08-08 19:00
Betr (AU)🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.44%EV +4.32%E +0.432%K +0.481%G +0.021%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.59%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.71%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -3.68%E -0.702%K -0.867%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-08 19:15
Fanatics🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV +4.32%E +0.432%K +0.481%G +0.021%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.74%EV -8.12%E -6.30%K -28.02%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.87%EV -3.68%E -0.702%K -0.867%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-08 19:19
Casumo🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV +4.32%E +0.432%K +0.481%G +0.021%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.64%EV -9.55%E -7.52%K -35.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.00%EV +0.904%E +0.164%K +0.201%G +0.002%6.9%2026-08-08 19:15
Svenska Spel🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV +4.32%E +0.432%K +0.481%G +0.021%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.64%EV -9.55%E -7.52%K -35.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.00%EV +0.904%E +0.164%K +0.201%G +0.002%6.9%2026-08-08 19:15
betPARX🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV +4.32%E +0.432%K +0.481%G +0.021%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.64%EV -9.55%E -7.52%K -35.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.00%EV +0.904%E +0.164%K +0.201%G +0.002%6.9%2026-08-08 19:14
ATG (SE)🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV +4.32%E +0.432%K +0.481%G +0.021%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.64%EV -9.55%E -7.52%K -35.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.00%EV +0.904%E +0.164%K +0.201%G +0.002%6.9%2026-08-08 19:14
Grosvenor🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV +4.32%E +0.432%K +0.481%G +0.021%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.64%EV -9.55%E -7.52%K -35.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.00%EV +0.904%E +0.164%K +0.201%G +0.002%6.9%2026-08-08 19:14
Bally Bet🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV +4.32%E +0.432%K +0.481%G +0.021%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.64%EV -9.55%E -7.52%K -35.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.00%EV +0.904%E +0.164%K +0.201%G +0.002%6.9%2026-08-08 19:14
Betsson🎯9.80I 10.20%NM 9.50%EV +2.24%E +0.228%K +0.254%G +0.006%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.27%EV -9.55%E -7.52%K -35.37%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.23%EV -0.931%E -0.172%K -0.212%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-08 19:25
NordicBet🎯9.80I 10.20%NM 9.50%EV +2.24%E +0.228%K +0.254%G +0.006%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.27%EV -9.55%E -7.52%K -35.37%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.23%EV -0.931%E -0.172%K -0.212%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-08 19:25
SportsBet🎯9.75I 10.26%NM 9.57%EV +1.72%E +0.176%K +0.196%G +0.003%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.77%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.71%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.66%EV -8.27%E -1.65%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 19:15
Pinnacle🎯9.67I 10.34%NM 9.92%EV +0.882%E +0.091%K +0.102%G +0.001%1.33I 75.19%NM 72.09%EV -5.28%E -3.97%K -15.99%G +0.000%5.33I 18.76%NM 17.99%EV -2.22%E -0.416%K -0.512%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-08 19:15
BetOnline.ag🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 10.12%EV -0.891%E -0.094%K -0.105%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 71.74%EV -4.56%E -3.41%K -13.42%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.14%EV -2.77%E -0.522%K -0.643%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-08 19:25
LowVig.ag🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 10.12%EV -0.891%E -0.094%K -0.105%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 71.74%EV -4.56%E -3.41%K -13.42%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.14%EV -2.77%E -0.522%K -0.643%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-08 19:25
Bet Right🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV -0.891%E -0.094%K -0.105%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.38%EV -8.12%E -6.30%K -28.02%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV -3.68%E -0.702%K -0.867%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-08 19:00
Paddy Power🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.80%EV -0.891%E -0.094%K -0.105%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.59%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.71%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.61%EV -8.27%E -1.65%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-08 19:10
888sport🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.80%EV -0.891%E -0.094%K -0.105%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.59%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.71%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.61%EV -8.27%E -1.65%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-08 19:14
888sport (SE)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.80%EV -0.891%E -0.094%K -0.105%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.59%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.71%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.61%EV -8.27%E -1.65%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-08 19:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.80%EV -0.891%E -0.094%K -0.105%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.59%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.71%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.61%EV -8.27%E -1.65%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-08 19:14
William Hill🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.80%EV -0.891%E -0.094%K -0.105%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.59%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.71%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.61%EV -8.27%E -1.65%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-08 19:15
PlayUp🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.77%EV -0.891%E -0.094%K -0.105%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.54%EV -8.84%E -6.90%K -31.56%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.69%EV -3.68%E -0.702%K -0.867%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-08 19:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.77%EV -0.891%E -0.094%K -0.105%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.54%EV -8.84%E -6.90%K -31.56%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.69%EV -3.68%E -0.702%K -0.867%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-08 19:00
betfred_uk🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.74%EV -0.891%E -0.094%K -0.105%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 71.75%EV -8.12%E -6.30%K -28.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -8.27%E -1.65%K -2.07%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 19:14
TABtouch🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.55%EV -0.891%E -0.094%K -0.105%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 73.17%EV -11.69%E -9.42%K -48.69%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.28%EV -3.68%E -0.702%K -0.867%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-08 18:34
BetRivers🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.55%EV -0.891%E -0.094%K -0.105%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 73.17%EV -11.69%E -9.42%K -48.69%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.28%EV -3.68%E -0.702%K -0.867%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-08 18:34
Unibet🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.53%EV -0.891%E -0.094%K -0.105%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 73.05%EV -11.69%E -9.42%K -48.69%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.42%EV -4.60%E -0.885%K -1.10%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-08 19:14
Unibet (SE)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.53%EV -0.891%E -0.094%K -0.105%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 73.05%EV -11.69%E -9.42%K -48.69%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.42%EV -4.60%E -0.885%K -1.10%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-08 19:14
Unibet (NL)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.53%EV -0.891%E -0.094%K -0.105%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 73.05%EV -11.69%E -9.42%K -48.69%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.42%EV -4.60%E -0.885%K -1.10%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-08 19:15
Virgin Bet🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.48%EV -0.891%E -0.094%K -0.105%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 73.21%EV -12.40%E -10.08%K -53.90%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.32%EV -4.60%E -0.885%K -1.10%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-08 18:34
LiveScore Bet🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.48%EV -0.891%E -0.094%K -0.105%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 73.21%EV -12.40%E -10.08%K -53.90%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.32%EV -4.60%E -0.885%K -1.10%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-08 18:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.48%EV -0.891%E -0.094%K -0.105%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 73.21%EV -12.40%E -10.08%K -53.90%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.32%EV -4.60%E -0.885%K -1.10%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-08 18:35
DraftKings🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -6.11%E -0.679%K -0.763%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.73%EV -5.28%E -3.97%K -15.99%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -8.27%E -1.65%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-08 19:14
Bovada🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.44%EV -6.11%E -0.679%K -0.763%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.15%EV -5.99%E -4.54%K -18.71%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.42%EV -6.43%E -1.26%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-08 19:23
BetUS🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.44%EV -6.11%E -0.679%K -0.763%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.15%EV -5.99%E -4.54%K -18.71%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.42%EV -6.43%E -1.26%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-08 19:24
Tipico (DE)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -6.11%E -0.679%K -0.763%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.71%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.71%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.93%EV -4.60%E -0.885%K -1.10%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-08 19:19
Sky Bet🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -6.11%E -0.679%K -0.763%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.20%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.71%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -8.27%E -1.65%K -2.07%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 19:15
FanDuel🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.27%EV -6.11%E -0.679%K -0.763%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 71.62%EV -8.12%E -6.30%K -28.02%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.12%EV -6.43%E -1.26%K -1.57%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-08 19:13
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 9.91%EV -6.11%E -0.679%K -0.763%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 71.32%EV -10.97%E -8.78%K -43.89%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.77%EV -12.86%E -2.71%K -3.43%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-08 19:20
PMU (FR)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 9.86%EV -6.11%E -0.679%K -0.763%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 72.74%EV -13.11%E -10.75%K -59.59%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.40%EV -6.43%E -1.26%K -1.57%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-08 19:14
Unibet (UK)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.06%EV -11.32%E -1.33%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.14%EV -4.56%E -3.41%K -13.42%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.80%EV -8.27%E -1.65%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-08 19:19
Betway🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.01%EV -11.32%E -1.33%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.30%EV -3.85%E -2.85%K -11.00%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.70%EV -12.86%E -2.71%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 19:14
BoyleSports🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -11.32%E -1.33%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.77%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.71%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -8.27%E -1.65%K -2.07%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-08 18:49
betano_uk🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.74%EV -11.32%E -1.33%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.24%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.71%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -11.94%E -2.49%K -3.14%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-08 18:49
Bet Victor🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.74%EV -11.32%E -1.33%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.24%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.71%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -11.94%E -2.49%K -3.14%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-08 18:50
Marathon Bet🎯8.40I 11.90%NM 11.10%EV -12.37%E -1.47%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 70.62%EV -5.99%E -4.54%K -18.71%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.28%EV -6.43%E -1.26%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-08 19:25
NetBet (FR)🎯8.25I 12.12%NM 10.71%EV -13.93%E -1.69%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 70.09%EV -10.26%E -8.14%K -39.47%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.20%EV -15.61%E -3.39%K -4.34%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-08 19:25
Coral🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.83%EV -16.54%E -2.07%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.13%EV -3.85%E -2.85%K -11.00%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.03%EV -3.68%E -0.702%K -0.867%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-08 18:55
Neds🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.73%EV -16.54%E -2.07%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.50%EV -3.85%E -2.85%K -11.00%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -8.27%E -1.65%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-08 18:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.73%EV -16.54%E -2.07%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.50%EV -3.85%E -2.85%K -11.00%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -8.27%E -1.65%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-08 18:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.73%EV -16.54%E -2.07%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.50%EV -3.85%E -2.85%K -11.00%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -8.27%E -1.65%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-08 18:55
BetMGM🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.73%EV -16.54%E -2.07%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.50%EV -3.85%E -2.85%K -11.00%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -8.27%E -1.65%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-08 18:58
Unibet (FR)🎯7.90I 12.66%NM 11.42%EV -17.58%E -2.23%K -2.55%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 69.97%EV -8.12%E -6.30%K -28.02%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 18.61%EV -11.02%E -2.27%K -2.86%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-08 19:10
Betclic (FR)🎯7.75I 12.90%NM 11.76%EV -19.15%E -2.47%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 69.05%EV -5.99%E -4.54%K -18.71%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.19%EV -12.86%E -2.71%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-08 19:10
Winamax (DE)🎯7.25I 13.79%NM 12.57%EV -24.36%E -3.36%K -3.90%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 69.56%EV -6.70%E -5.11%K -21.61%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.87%EV -6.43%E -1.26%K -1.57%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-08 19:10
Winamax (FR)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.73%EV -26.97%E -3.85%K -4.50%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 69.08%EV -8.12%E -6.30%K -28.02%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.19%EV -10.10%E -2.06%K -2.59%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-08 19:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)11.00I 9.09%NM 9.02%1.36I 73.53%NM 72.94%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.04%0.8%2026-08-08 19:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)11.00I 9.09%NM 9.02%1.36I 73.53%NM 72.94%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.04%0.8%2026-08-08 19:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)11.00I 9.09%NM 9.02%1.36I 73.53%NM 72.94%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.04%0.8%2026-08-08 19:10
Matchbook11.00I 9.09%NM 9.02%1.36I 73.53%NM 72.94%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.04%0.8%2026-08-08 19:00
Kalshi11.11I 9.00%NM 8.91%1.35I 74.07%NM 73.30%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.80%1.1%2026-08-08 19:20
Smarkets10.50I 9.52%NM 9.36%1.35I 74.07%NM 72.78%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.86%1.8%2026-08-08 19:15

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