Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

CF Estrela v Sporting Lisbon

Início: 2026-08-08 19:30 UTC

Final: CF Estrela 2–2 Sporting Lisbon

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

56 casas de apostas (20 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

CF Estrela (Local)

Previsão 10.43%9.59odd justa
EV +4.32%
Vantagem +0.432%
Kelly +0.481%
Crescimento +0.021%

pressupondo odds máximas de 10.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
9.35%10.51%10.42%12.73%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
7.009.129.5010.0014.29%10.97%10.53%10.00%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Sporting Lisbon (Visitante)

Previsão 71.22%1.40odd justa
EV -3.85%
Vantagem -2.85%
Kelly -11.00%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.35

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
69.05%71.16%71.31%73.64%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.221.291.301.3581.97%77.40%76.92%74.07%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 18.35%5.45odd justa
EV +0.904%
Vantagem +0.164%
Kelly +0.201%
Crescimento +0.002%

pressupondo odds máximas de 5.50

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
17.00%18.33%18.27%19.70%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
4.605.135.105.5021.74%19.48%19.61%18.18%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: CF Estrela (Local): 10.43%; Sporting Lisbon (Visitante): 71.22%; Empate: 18.35%. Para CF Estrela (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 9.59. 13 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 10.00, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +4.32%.

Odds das casas de apostas (56 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
Coolbet🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.51%EV +4.32%E +0.432%K +0.481%G +0.021%1.30I 76.92%NM 73.19%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.71%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.30%EV +0.904%E +0.164%K +0.201%G +0.002%5.1%2026-08-08 19:00
Betr (AU)🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.44%EV +4.32%E +0.432%K +0.481%G +0.021%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.59%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.71%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -3.68%E -0.702%K -0.867%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-08 19:15
Fanatics🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.38%EV +4.32%E +0.432%K +0.481%G +0.021%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.74%EV -8.12%E -6.30%K -28.02%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.87%EV -3.68%E -0.702%K -0.867%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-08 19:19
Casumo🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV +4.32%E +0.432%K +0.481%G +0.021%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.64%EV -9.55%E -7.52%K -35.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.00%EV +0.904%E +0.164%K +0.201%G +0.002%6.9%2026-08-08 19:15
Svenska Spel🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV +4.32%E +0.432%K +0.481%G +0.021%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.64%EV -9.55%E -7.52%K -35.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.00%EV +0.904%E +0.164%K +0.201%G +0.002%6.9%2026-08-08 19:15
betPARX🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV +4.32%E +0.432%K +0.481%G +0.021%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.64%EV -9.55%E -7.52%K -35.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.00%EV +0.904%E +0.164%K +0.201%G +0.002%6.9%2026-08-08 19:14
ATG (SE)🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV +4.32%E +0.432%K +0.481%G +0.021%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.64%EV -9.55%E -7.52%K -35.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.00%EV +0.904%E +0.164%K +0.201%G +0.002%6.9%2026-08-08 19:14
Grosvenor🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV +4.32%E +0.432%K +0.481%G +0.021%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.64%EV -9.55%E -7.52%K -35.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.00%EV +0.904%E +0.164%K +0.201%G +0.002%6.9%2026-08-08 19:14
Bally Bet🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV +4.32%E +0.432%K +0.481%G +0.021%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.64%EV -9.55%E -7.52%K -35.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.00%EV +0.904%E +0.164%K +0.201%G +0.002%6.9%2026-08-08 19:14
Betsson🎯9.80I 10.20%NM 9.50%EV +2.24%E +0.228%K +0.254%G +0.006%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.27%EV -9.55%E -7.52%K -35.37%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.23%EV -0.931%E -0.172%K -0.212%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-08 19:25
NordicBet🎯9.80I 10.20%NM 9.50%EV +2.24%E +0.228%K +0.254%G +0.006%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.27%EV -9.55%E -7.52%K -35.37%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.23%EV -0.931%E -0.172%K -0.212%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-08 19:25
SportsBet🎯9.75I 10.26%NM 9.57%EV +1.72%E +0.176%K +0.196%G +0.003%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.77%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.71%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.66%EV -8.27%E -1.65%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 19:15
Pinnacle🎯9.67I 10.34%NM 9.92%EV +0.882%E +0.091%K +0.102%G +0.001%1.33I 75.19%NM 72.09%EV -5.28%E -3.97%K -15.99%G +0.000%5.33I 18.76%NM 17.99%EV -2.22%E -0.416%K -0.512%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-08 19:15
BetOnline.ag🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 10.12%EV -0.891%E -0.094%K -0.105%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 71.74%EV -4.56%E -3.41%K -13.42%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.14%EV -2.77%E -0.522%K -0.643%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-08 19:25
LowVig.ag🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 10.12%EV -0.891%E -0.094%K -0.105%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 71.74%EV -4.56%E -3.41%K -13.42%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.14%EV -2.77%E -0.522%K -0.643%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-08 19:25
Bet Right🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV -0.891%E -0.094%K -0.105%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.38%EV -8.12%E -6.30%K -28.02%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV -3.68%E -0.702%K -0.867%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-08 19:00
Paddy Power🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.80%EV -0.891%E -0.094%K -0.105%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.59%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.71%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.61%EV -8.27%E -1.65%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-08 19:10
888sport🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.80%EV -0.891%E -0.094%K -0.105%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.59%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.71%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.61%EV -8.27%E -1.65%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-08 19:14
888sport (SE)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.80%EV -0.891%E -0.094%K -0.105%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.59%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.71%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.61%EV -8.27%E -1.65%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-08 19:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.80%EV -0.891%E -0.094%K -0.105%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.59%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.71%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.61%EV -8.27%E -1.65%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-08 19:14
William Hill🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.80%EV -0.891%E -0.094%K -0.105%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.59%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.71%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.61%EV -8.27%E -1.65%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-08 19:15
PlayUp🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.77%EV -0.891%E -0.094%K -0.105%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.54%EV -8.84%E -6.90%K -31.56%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.69%EV -3.68%E -0.702%K -0.867%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-08 19:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.77%EV -0.891%E -0.094%K -0.105%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.54%EV -8.84%E -6.90%K -31.56%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.69%EV -3.68%E -0.702%K -0.867%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-08 19:00
betfred_uk🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.74%EV -0.891%E -0.094%K -0.105%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 71.75%EV -8.12%E -6.30%K -28.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -8.27%E -1.65%K -2.07%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 19:14
TABtouch🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.55%EV -0.891%E -0.094%K -0.105%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 73.17%EV -11.69%E -9.42%K -48.69%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.28%EV -3.68%E -0.702%K -0.867%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-08 18:34
BetRivers🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.55%EV -0.891%E -0.094%K -0.105%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 73.17%EV -11.69%E -9.42%K -48.69%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.28%EV -3.68%E -0.702%K -0.867%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-08 18:34
Unibet🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.53%EV -0.891%E -0.094%K -0.105%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 73.05%EV -11.69%E -9.42%K -48.69%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.42%EV -4.60%E -0.885%K -1.10%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-08 19:14
Unibet (SE)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.53%EV -0.891%E -0.094%K -0.105%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 73.05%EV -11.69%E -9.42%K -48.69%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.42%EV -4.60%E -0.885%K -1.10%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-08 19:14
Unibet (NL)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.53%EV -0.891%E -0.094%K -0.105%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 73.05%EV -11.69%E -9.42%K -48.69%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.42%EV -4.60%E -0.885%K -1.10%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-08 19:15
Virgin Bet🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.48%EV -0.891%E -0.094%K -0.105%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 73.21%EV -12.40%E -10.08%K -53.90%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.32%EV -4.60%E -0.885%K -1.10%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-08 18:34
LiveScore Bet🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.48%EV -0.891%E -0.094%K -0.105%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 73.21%EV -12.40%E -10.08%K -53.90%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.32%EV -4.60%E -0.885%K -1.10%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-08 18:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.48%EV -0.891%E -0.094%K -0.105%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 73.21%EV -12.40%E -10.08%K -53.90%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.32%EV -4.60%E -0.885%K -1.10%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-08 18:35
DraftKings🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -6.11%E -0.679%K -0.763%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.73%EV -5.28%E -3.97%K -15.99%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -8.27%E -1.65%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-08 19:14
Bovada🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.44%EV -6.11%E -0.679%K -0.763%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.15%EV -5.99%E -4.54%K -18.71%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.42%EV -6.43%E -1.26%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-08 19:23
BetUS🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.44%EV -6.11%E -0.679%K -0.763%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.15%EV -5.99%E -4.54%K -18.71%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.42%EV -6.43%E -1.26%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-08 19:24
Tipico (DE)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -6.11%E -0.679%K -0.763%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.71%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.71%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.93%EV -4.60%E -0.885%K -1.10%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-08 19:19
Sky Bet🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -6.11%E -0.679%K -0.763%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.20%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.71%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.51%EV -8.27%E -1.65%K -2.07%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 19:15
FanDuel🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.27%EV -6.11%E -0.679%K -0.763%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 71.62%EV -8.12%E -6.30%K -28.02%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.12%EV -6.43%E -1.26%K -1.57%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-08 19:13
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 9.91%EV -6.11%E -0.679%K -0.763%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 71.32%EV -10.97%E -8.78%K -43.89%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.77%EV -12.86%E -2.71%K -3.43%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-08 19:20
PMU (FR)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 9.86%EV -6.11%E -0.679%K -0.763%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 72.74%EV -13.11%E -10.75%K -59.59%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.40%EV -6.43%E -1.26%K -1.57%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-08 19:14
Unibet (UK)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.06%EV -11.32%E -1.33%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.14%EV -4.56%E -3.41%K -13.42%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.80%EV -8.27%E -1.65%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-08 19:19
Betway🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.01%EV -11.32%E -1.33%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.30%EV -3.85%E -2.85%K -11.00%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.70%EV -12.86%E -2.71%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 19:14
BoyleSports🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -11.32%E -1.33%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.77%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.71%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -8.27%E -1.65%K -2.07%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-08 18:49
betano_uk🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.74%EV -11.32%E -1.33%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.24%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.71%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -11.94%E -2.49%K -3.14%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-08 18:49
Bet Victor🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.74%EV -11.32%E -1.33%K -1.51%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.24%EV -7.41%E -5.70%K -24.71%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -11.94%E -2.49%K -3.14%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-08 18:50
Marathon Bet🎯8.40I 11.90%NM 11.10%EV -12.37%E -1.47%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 70.62%EV -5.99%E -4.54%K -18.71%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.28%EV -6.43%E -1.26%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-08 19:25
NetBet (FR)🎯8.25I 12.12%NM 10.71%EV -13.93%E -1.69%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 70.09%EV -10.26%E -8.14%K -39.47%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.20%EV -15.61%E -3.39%K -4.34%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-08 19:25
Coral🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.83%EV -16.54%E -2.07%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.13%EV -3.85%E -2.85%K -11.00%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.03%EV -3.68%E -0.702%K -0.867%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-08 18:55
Neds🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.73%EV -16.54%E -2.07%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.50%EV -3.85%E -2.85%K -11.00%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -8.27%E -1.65%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-08 18:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.73%EV -16.54%E -2.07%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.50%EV -3.85%E -2.85%K -11.00%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -8.27%E -1.65%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-08 18:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.73%EV -16.54%E -2.07%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.50%EV -3.85%E -2.85%K -11.00%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -8.27%E -1.65%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-08 18:55
BetMGM🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.73%EV -16.54%E -2.07%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.50%EV -3.85%E -2.85%K -11.00%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -8.27%E -1.65%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-08 18:58
Unibet (FR)🎯7.90I 12.66%NM 11.42%EV -17.58%E -2.23%K -2.55%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 69.97%EV -8.12%E -6.30%K -28.02%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 18.61%EV -11.02%E -2.27%K -2.86%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-08 19:10
Betclic (FR)🎯7.75I 12.90%NM 11.76%EV -19.15%E -2.47%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 69.05%EV -5.99%E -4.54%K -18.71%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.19%EV -12.86%E -2.71%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-08 19:10
Winamax (DE)🎯7.25I 13.79%NM 12.57%EV -24.36%E -3.36%K -3.90%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 69.56%EV -6.70%E -5.11%K -21.61%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.87%EV -6.43%E -1.26%K -1.57%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-08 19:10
Winamax (FR)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.73%EV -26.97%E -3.85%K -4.50%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 69.08%EV -8.12%E -6.30%K -28.02%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.19%EV -10.10%E -2.06%K -2.59%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-08 19:09
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎11.00I 9.09%NM 9.02%1.36I 73.53%NM 72.94%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.04%0.8%2026-08-08 19:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎11.00I 9.09%NM 9.02%1.36I 73.53%NM 72.94%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.04%0.8%2026-08-08 19:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎11.00I 9.09%NM 9.02%1.36I 73.53%NM 72.94%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.04%0.8%2026-08-08 19:10
Matchbook◎11.00I 9.09%NM 9.02%1.36I 73.53%NM 72.94%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.04%0.8%2026-08-08 19:00
Kalshi◎11.11I 9.00%NM 8.91%1.35I 74.07%NM 73.30%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.80%1.1%2026-08-08 19:20
Smarkets◎10.50I 9.52%NM 9.36%1.35I 74.07%NM 72.78%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.86%1.8%2026-08-08 19:15