Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Casa Pia v Benfica

Kickoff: 2026-04-06 19:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Casa Pia (Local)

Prediction 7.26%13.76fair odd
EV +8.97%
Edge +0.598%
Kelly +0.641%
Growth +0.058%

assuming max odds 15.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.16%7.32%7.22%8.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.5013.0113.0015.009.52%7.68%7.69%6.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Benfica (Visit)

Prediction 77.82%1.29fair odd
EV -1.95%
Edge -1.54%
Kelly -7.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.10%77.71%77.78%79.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.151.201.201.2686.96%83.61%83.33%79.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 14.91%6.70fair odd
EV +5.89%
Edge +0.830%
Kelly +0.966%
Growth +0.057%

assuming max odds 7.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.36%14.97%14.99%17.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.256.326.257.1019.05%15.81%16.00%14.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Casa Pia (Local): 7.26%; Benfica (Visit): 77.82%; Draw: 14.91%. For Casa Pia (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 13.76. 19 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 15.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.97%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.23%EV +8.97%E +0.598%K +0.641%G +0.058%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.83%EV -8.95%E -7.65%K -52.65%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.94%EV -0.074%E -0.011%K -0.013%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-06 19:15
PlayUp🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.21%EV +8.97%E +0.598%K +0.641%G +0.058%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.60%EV -6.62%E -5.51%K -33.08%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -14.24%E -2.48%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-06 19:35
Paddy Power🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.20%EV +8.97%E +0.598%K +0.641%G +0.058%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.49%EV -8.95%E -7.65%K -52.65%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV -3.06%E -0.470%K -0.556%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-06 19:25
SportsBet🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.16%EV +8.97%E +0.598%K +0.641%G +0.058%1.16I 86.21%NM 79.63%EV -9.73%E -8.39%K -60.80%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.21%EV -3.06%E -0.470%K -0.556%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-06 19:25
NordicBet🎯14.50I 6.90%NM 6.48%EV +5.34%E +0.368%K +0.396%G +0.021%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.61%EV -5.84%E -4.82%K -27.79%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.92%EV -12.01%E -2.03%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-06 19:39
Betsson🎯14.50I 6.90%NM 6.48%EV +5.34%E +0.368%K +0.396%G +0.021%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.61%EV -5.84%E -4.82%K -27.79%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.92%EV -12.01%E -2.03%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-06 19:40
1xBet🎯14.20I 7.04%NM 6.83%EV +3.16%E +0.223%K +0.239%G +0.008%1.22I 81.97%NM 79.51%EV -5.06%E -4.15%K -22.99%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 13.66%EV +5.89%E +0.830%K +0.966%G +0.057%3.1%2026-04-06 19:35
Coolbet🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV +1.71%E +0.122%K +0.131%G +0.002%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.58%EV -5.84%E -4.82%K -27.79%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.63%EV -3.06%E -0.470%K -0.556%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-06 19:25
Svenska Spel🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.75%EV +1.71%E +0.122%K +0.131%G +0.002%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.72%EV -6.62%E -5.51%K -33.08%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -3.06%E -0.470%K -0.556%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-06 19:30
ATG (SE)🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.75%EV +1.71%E +0.122%K +0.131%G +0.002%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.72%EV -6.62%E -5.51%K -33.08%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -3.06%E -0.470%K -0.556%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-06 19:30
Fanatics🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV +1.71%E +0.122%K +0.131%G +0.002%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.82%EV -8.17%E -6.93%K -45.40%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV +4.40%E +0.629%K +0.733%G +0.032%6.2%2026-04-06 19:30
Betclic (FR)🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV +1.71%E +0.122%K +0.131%G +0.002%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.83%EV -5.84%E -4.82%K -27.79%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.44%EV -9.02%E -1.48%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-06 18:08
Grosvenor🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.69%EV +1.71%E +0.122%K +0.131%G +0.002%1.19I 84.03%NM 78.68%EV -7.39%E -6.21%K -38.91%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV -4.55%E -0.711%K -0.842%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-06 19:40
Casumo🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.69%EV +1.71%E +0.122%K +0.131%G +0.002%1.19I 84.03%NM 78.68%EV -7.39%E -6.21%K -38.91%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV -4.55%E -0.711%K -0.842%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-06 19:40
betPARX🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.69%EV +1.71%E +0.122%K +0.131%G +0.002%1.19I 84.03%NM 78.68%EV -7.39%E -6.21%K -38.91%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV -4.55%E -0.711%K -0.842%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-06 19:40
Bally Bet🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.69%EV +1.71%E +0.122%K +0.131%G +0.002%1.19I 84.03%NM 78.68%EV -7.39%E -6.21%K -38.91%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV -4.55%E -0.711%K -0.842%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-06 19:40
Sky Bet🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.68%EV +1.71%E +0.122%K +0.131%G +0.002%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.95%EV -8.95%E -7.65%K -52.65%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV +4.40%E +0.629%K +0.733%G +0.032%6.9%2026-04-06 19:24
TABtouch🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.64%EV +1.71%E +0.122%K +0.131%G +0.002%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.82%EV -8.17%E -6.93%K -45.40%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.53%EV -4.55%E -0.711%K -0.842%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-06 19:40
FanDuel🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.61%EV +1.71%E +0.122%K +0.131%G +0.002%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.14%EV -8.95%E -7.65%K -52.65%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -3.06%E -0.470%K -0.556%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-06 19:29
DraftKings🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV -5.56%E -0.427%K -0.463%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.31%EV -6.62%E -5.51%K -33.08%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.46%EV -3.06%E -0.470%K -0.556%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-06 19:35
Unibet (FR)🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -5.56%E -0.427%K -0.463%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 78.79%EV -7.39%E -6.21%K -38.91%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.99%EV -0.074%E -0.011%K -0.013%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-06 19:19
Betr (AU)🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.19%EV -5.56%E -0.427%K -0.463%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.86%EV -6.62%E -5.51%K -33.08%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.95%EV -6.79%E -1.09%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-06 19:25
Bet Right🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.18%EV -5.56%E -0.427%K -0.463%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 78.46%EV -7.39%E -6.21%K -38.91%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -3.06%E -0.470%K -0.556%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-06 19:25
BetRivers🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.17%EV -5.56%E -0.427%K -0.463%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 78.28%EV -7.39%E -6.21%K -38.91%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.56%EV -4.55%E -0.711%K -0.842%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-06 19:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV -5.56%E -0.427%K -0.463%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 78.01%EV -7.39%E -6.21%K -38.91%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.85%EV -6.79%E -1.09%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-06 19:25
Unibet🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.09%EV -5.56%E -0.427%K -0.463%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.15%EV -8.17%E -6.93%K -45.40%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.75%EV -6.79%E -1.09%K -1.29%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-06 19:40
Unibet (NL)🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.09%EV -5.56%E -0.427%K -0.463%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.15%EV -8.17%E -6.93%K -45.40%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.75%EV -6.79%E -1.09%K -1.29%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-06 19:40
Unibet (SE)🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.09%EV -5.56%E -0.427%K -0.463%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.15%EV -8.17%E -6.93%K -45.40%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.75%EV -6.79%E -1.09%K -1.29%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-06 19:40
LiveScore Bet🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.05%EV -5.56%E -0.427%K -0.463%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 78.30%EV -8.95%E -7.65%K -52.65%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.66%EV -6.79%E -1.09%K -1.29%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-06 19:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.05%EV -5.56%E -0.427%K -0.463%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 78.30%EV -8.95%E -7.65%K -52.65%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.66%EV -6.79%E -1.09%K -1.29%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-06 19:40
Bet Victor🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.00%EV -5.56%E -0.427%K -0.463%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 77.82%EV -8.95%E -7.65%K -52.65%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -10.51%E -1.75%K -2.10%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-06 19:29
PMU (FR)🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.00%EV -5.56%E -0.427%K -0.463%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 78.44%EV -9.73%E -8.39%K -60.80%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.56%EV -6.79%E -1.09%K -1.29%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-06 19:40
Virgin Bet🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.00%EV -5.56%E -0.427%K -0.463%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 78.44%EV -9.73%E -8.39%K -60.80%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.56%EV -6.79%E -1.09%K -1.29%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-06 19:40
LeoVegas🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 6.93%EV -5.56%E -0.427%K -0.463%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 78.31%EV -10.51%E -9.14%K -70.04%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.76%EV -9.02%E -1.48%K -1.77%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-06 19:40
GTbets🎯12.82I 7.80%NM 7.61%EV -6.86%E -0.535%K -0.581%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 77.46%EV -1.95%E -1.54%K -7.48%G +0.000%6.54I 15.29%NM 14.92%EV -2.46%E -0.376%K -0.444%G +0.000%2.5%2026-04-06 19:35
Pinnacle🎯12.75I 7.84%NM 7.42%EV -7.37%E -0.578%K -0.627%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.20%EV -5.84%E -4.82%K -27.79%G +0.000%6.58I 15.20%NM 14.38%EV -1.86%E -0.283%K -0.334%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-06 19:30
LowVig.ag🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.74%EV -9.19%E -0.735%K -0.799%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 78.03%EV -3.50%E -2.82%K -14.59%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.23%EV +1.42%E +0.209%K +0.244%G +0.003%3.4%2026-04-06 19:40
BetOnline.ag🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.74%EV -9.19%E -0.735%K -0.799%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 78.03%EV -3.50%E -2.82%K -14.59%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.23%EV +1.42%E +0.209%K +0.244%G +0.003%3.4%2026-04-06 19:40
NetBet (FR)🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.26%EV -9.19%E -0.735%K -0.799%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 77.60%EV -8.95%E -7.65%K -52.65%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.13%EV -10.51%E -1.75%K -2.10%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-06 18:59
Coral🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.89%EV -12.82%E -1.07%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.56%EV -5.06%E -4.15%K -22.99%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV -3.06%E -0.470%K -0.556%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-06 15:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.89%EV -12.82%E -1.07%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.56%EV -5.06%E -4.15%K -22.99%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV -3.06%E -0.470%K -0.556%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-06 15:05
BetUS🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -12.82%E -1.07%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.70%EV -5.84%E -4.82%K -27.79%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.46%EV -3.06%E -0.470%K -0.556%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-06 19:39
Everygame🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.74%EV -12.82%E -1.07%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.40%EV -6.62%E -5.51%K -33.08%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -6.79%E -1.09%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-06 18:50
888sport🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV -12.82%E -1.07%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -6.62%E -5.51%K -33.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -10.51%E -1.75%K -2.10%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-06 19:35
William Hill🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV -12.82%E -1.07%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -6.62%E -5.51%K -33.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -10.51%E -1.75%K -2.10%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-06 19:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV -12.82%E -1.07%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -6.62%E -5.51%K -33.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -10.51%E -1.75%K -2.10%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-06 19:35
888sport (SE)🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV -12.82%E -1.07%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -6.62%E -5.51%K -33.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -10.51%E -1.75%K -2.10%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-06 19:35
Betway🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV -12.82%E -1.07%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -6.62%E -5.51%K -33.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -10.51%E -1.75%K -2.10%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-06 18:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯11.50I 8.70%NM 8.15%EV -16.45%E -1.43%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.85%EV -5.06%E -4.15%K -22.99%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.00%EV -6.79%E -1.09%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-06 15:00
Neds🎯11.50I 8.70%NM 8.15%EV -16.45%E -1.43%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.85%EV -5.06%E -4.15%K -22.99%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.00%EV -6.79%E -1.09%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-06 15:05
BetMGM🎯11.50I 8.70%NM 8.15%EV -16.45%E -1.43%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.85%EV -5.06%E -4.15%K -22.99%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.00%EV -6.79%E -1.09%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-06 15:05
Marathon Bet🎯11.50I 8.70%NM 8.12%EV -16.45%E -1.43%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 74.10%EV -1.95%E -1.54%K -7.48%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.78%EV -21.70%E -4.13%K -5.11%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-06 17:00
Winamax (DE)🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -20.09%E -1.83%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.30%EV -6.62%E -5.51%K -33.08%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -3.06%E -0.470%K -0.556%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-06 19:20
BoyleSports🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -20.09%E -1.83%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.39%EV -6.62%E -5.51%K -33.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -10.51%E -1.75%K -2.10%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-06 19:40
Winamax (FR)🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 8.64%EV -23.72%E -2.26%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 76.24%EV -7.39%E -6.21%K -38.91%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.12%EV -10.51%E -1.75%K -2.10%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-06 19:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)19.50I 5.13%NM 5.09%1.23I 81.30%NM 80.72%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.18%0.7%2026-04-06 19:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)19.00I 5.26%NM 5.22%1.23I 81.30%NM 80.62%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.17%0.8%2026-04-06 19:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)19.00I 5.26%NM 5.22%1.23I 81.30%NM 80.62%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.17%0.8%2026-04-06 19:40
Matchbook19.00I 5.26%NM 5.22%1.23I 81.30%NM 80.62%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.17%0.8%2026-04-06 19:40
Smarkets18.48I 5.41%NM 5.30%1.22I 81.97%NM 80.29%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.41%2.1%2026-04-06 19:40
Kalshi16.67I 6.00%NM 5.75%1.23I 81.30%NM 77.94%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.30%4.3%2026-04-06 19:40