La escuela de los momios

Casa Pia v Benfica

Inicio: 2026-04-06 19:45 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Casa Pia (Local)

Predicción 7.26%13.76momio equitativo
EV +8.97%
Ventaja +0.598%
Kelly +0.641%
Crecimiento +0.058%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 15.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
6.16%7.32%7.22%8.64%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
10.5013.0113.0015.009.52%7.68%7.69%6.67%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Benfica (Visitante)

Predicción 77.82%1.29momio equitativo
EV -1.95%
Ventaja -1.54%
Kelly -7.48%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.26

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
74.10%77.71%77.78%79.95%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.151.201.201.2686.96%83.61%83.33%79.37%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 14.91%6.70momio equitativo
EV +5.89%
Ventaja +0.830%
Kelly +0.966%
Crecimiento +0.057%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 7.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
13.36%14.97%14.99%17.78%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
5.256.326.257.1019.05%15.81%16.00%14.08%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Tipico (DE)15.00I 6.67%NM 6.23%EV +8.97%E +0.598%K +0.641%G +0.058%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.83%EV -8.95%E -7.65%K -52.65%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.94%EV -0.074%E -0.011%K -0.013%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-06 19:15
PlayUp15.00I 6.67%NM 6.21%EV +8.97%E +0.598%K +0.641%G +0.058%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.60%EV -6.62%E -5.51%K -33.08%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -14.24%E -2.48%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-06 19:35
Paddy Power15.00I 6.67%NM 6.20%EV +8.97%E +0.598%K +0.641%G +0.058%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.49%EV -8.95%E -7.65%K -52.65%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV -3.06%E -0.470%K -0.556%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-06 19:25
SportsBet15.00I 6.67%NM 6.16%EV +8.97%E +0.598%K +0.641%G +0.058%1.16I 86.21%NM 79.63%EV -9.73%E -8.39%K -60.80%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.21%EV -3.06%E -0.470%K -0.556%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-06 19:25
NordicBet14.50I 6.90%NM 6.48%EV +5.34%E +0.368%K +0.396%G +0.021%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.61%EV -5.84%E -4.82%K -27.79%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.92%EV -12.01%E -2.03%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-06 19:39
Betsson14.50I 6.90%NM 6.48%EV +5.34%E +0.368%K +0.396%G +0.021%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.61%EV -5.84%E -4.82%K -27.79%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.92%EV -12.01%E -2.03%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-06 19:40
1xBet14.20I 7.04%NM 6.83%EV +3.16%E +0.223%K +0.239%G +0.008%1.22I 81.97%NM 79.51%EV -5.06%E -4.15%K -22.99%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 13.66%EV +5.89%E +0.830%K +0.966%G +0.057%3.1%2026-04-06 19:35
Coolbet14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV +1.71%E +0.122%K +0.131%G +0.002%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.58%EV -5.84%E -4.82%K -27.79%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.63%EV -3.06%E -0.470%K -0.556%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-06 19:25
Svenska Spel14.00I 7.14%NM 6.75%EV +1.71%E +0.122%K +0.131%G +0.002%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.72%EV -6.62%E -5.51%K -33.08%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -3.06%E -0.470%K -0.556%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-06 19:30
ATG (SE)14.00I 7.14%NM 6.75%EV +1.71%E +0.122%K +0.131%G +0.002%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.72%EV -6.62%E -5.51%K -33.08%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -3.06%E -0.470%K -0.556%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-06 19:30
Fanatics14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV +1.71%E +0.122%K +0.131%G +0.002%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.82%EV -8.17%E -6.93%K -45.40%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.45%EV +4.40%E +0.629%K +0.733%G +0.032%6.2%2026-04-06 19:30
Betclic (FR)14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV +1.71%E +0.122%K +0.131%G +0.002%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.83%EV -5.84%E -4.82%K -27.79%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.44%EV -9.02%E -1.48%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-06 18:08
Grosvenor14.00I 7.14%NM 6.69%EV +1.71%E +0.122%K +0.131%G +0.002%1.19I 84.03%NM 78.68%EV -7.39%E -6.21%K -38.91%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV -4.55%E -0.711%K -0.842%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-06 19:40
Casumo14.00I 7.14%NM 6.69%EV +1.71%E +0.122%K +0.131%G +0.002%1.19I 84.03%NM 78.68%EV -7.39%E -6.21%K -38.91%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV -4.55%E -0.711%K -0.842%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-06 19:40
betPARX14.00I 7.14%NM 6.69%EV +1.71%E +0.122%K +0.131%G +0.002%1.19I 84.03%NM 78.68%EV -7.39%E -6.21%K -38.91%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV -4.55%E -0.711%K -0.842%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-06 19:40
Bally Bet14.00I 7.14%NM 6.69%EV +1.71%E +0.122%K +0.131%G +0.002%1.19I 84.03%NM 78.68%EV -7.39%E -6.21%K -38.91%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV -4.55%E -0.711%K -0.842%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-06 19:40
Sky Bet14.00I 7.14%NM 6.68%EV +1.71%E +0.122%K +0.131%G +0.002%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.95%EV -8.95%E -7.65%K -52.65%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV +4.40%E +0.629%K +0.733%G +0.032%6.9%2026-04-06 19:24
TABtouch14.00I 7.14%NM 6.64%EV +1.71%E +0.122%K +0.131%G +0.002%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.82%EV -8.17%E -6.93%K -45.40%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.53%EV -4.55%E -0.711%K -0.842%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-06 19:40
FanDuel14.00I 7.14%NM 6.61%EV +1.71%E +0.122%K +0.131%G +0.002%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.14%EV -8.95%E -7.65%K -52.65%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -3.06%E -0.470%K -0.556%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-06 19:29
DraftKings13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV -5.56%E -0.427%K -0.463%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.31%EV -6.62%E -5.51%K -33.08%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.46%EV -3.06%E -0.470%K -0.556%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-06 19:35
Unibet (FR)13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -5.56%E -0.427%K -0.463%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 78.79%EV -7.39%E -6.21%K -38.91%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.99%EV -0.074%E -0.011%K -0.013%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-06 19:19
Betr (AU)13.00I 7.69%NM 7.19%EV -5.56%E -0.427%K -0.463%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.86%EV -6.62%E -5.51%K -33.08%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.95%EV -6.79%E -1.09%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-06 19:25
Bet Right13.00I 7.69%NM 7.18%EV -5.56%E -0.427%K -0.463%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 78.46%EV -7.39%E -6.21%K -38.91%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -3.06%E -0.470%K -0.556%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-06 19:25
BetRivers13.00I 7.69%NM 7.17%EV -5.56%E -0.427%K -0.463%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 78.28%EV -7.39%E -6.21%K -38.91%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.56%EV -4.55%E -0.711%K -0.842%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-06 19:30
PointsBet (AU)13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV -5.56%E -0.427%K -0.463%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 78.01%EV -7.39%E -6.21%K -38.91%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.85%EV -6.79%E -1.09%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-06 19:25
Unibet13.00I 7.69%NM 7.09%EV -5.56%E -0.427%K -0.463%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.15%EV -8.17%E -6.93%K -45.40%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.75%EV -6.79%E -1.09%K -1.29%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-06 19:40
Unibet (NL)13.00I 7.69%NM 7.09%EV -5.56%E -0.427%K -0.463%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.15%EV -8.17%E -6.93%K -45.40%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.75%EV -6.79%E -1.09%K -1.29%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-06 19:40
Unibet (SE)13.00I 7.69%NM 7.09%EV -5.56%E -0.427%K -0.463%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.15%EV -8.17%E -6.93%K -45.40%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.75%EV -6.79%E -1.09%K -1.29%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-06 19:40
LiveScore Bet13.00I 7.69%NM 7.05%EV -5.56%E -0.427%K -0.463%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 78.30%EV -8.95%E -7.65%K -52.65%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.66%EV -6.79%E -1.09%K -1.29%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-06 19:40
LeoVegas (SE)13.00I 7.69%NM 7.05%EV -5.56%E -0.427%K -0.463%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 78.30%EV -8.95%E -7.65%K -52.65%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.66%EV -6.79%E -1.09%K -1.29%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-06 19:40
Bet Victor13.00I 7.69%NM 7.00%EV -5.56%E -0.427%K -0.463%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 77.82%EV -8.95%E -7.65%K -52.65%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -10.51%E -1.75%K -2.10%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-06 19:29
PMU (FR)13.00I 7.69%NM 7.00%EV -5.56%E -0.427%K -0.463%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 78.44%EV -9.73%E -8.39%K -60.80%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.56%EV -6.79%E -1.09%K -1.29%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-06 19:40
Virgin Bet13.00I 7.69%NM 7.00%EV -5.56%E -0.427%K -0.463%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 78.44%EV -9.73%E -8.39%K -60.80%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.56%EV -6.79%E -1.09%K -1.29%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-06 19:40
LeoVegas13.00I 7.69%NM 6.93%EV -5.56%E -0.427%K -0.463%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 78.31%EV -10.51%E -9.14%K -70.04%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.76%EV -9.02%E -1.48%K -1.77%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-06 19:40
GTbets12.82I 7.80%NM 7.61%EV -6.86%E -0.535%K -0.581%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 77.46%EV -1.95%E -1.54%K -7.48%G +0.000%6.54I 15.29%NM 14.92%EV -2.46%E -0.376%K -0.444%G +0.000%2.5%2026-04-06 19:35
Pinnacle12.75I 7.84%NM 7.42%EV -7.37%E -0.578%K -0.627%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.20%EV -5.84%E -4.82%K -27.79%G +0.000%6.58I 15.20%NM 14.38%EV -1.86%E -0.283%K -0.334%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-06 19:30
LowVig.ag12.50I 8.00%NM 7.74%EV -9.19%E -0.735%K -0.799%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 78.03%EV -3.50%E -2.82%K -14.59%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.23%EV +1.42%E +0.209%K +0.244%G +0.003%3.4%2026-04-06 19:40
BetOnline.ag12.50I 8.00%NM 7.74%EV -9.19%E -0.735%K -0.799%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 78.03%EV -3.50%E -2.82%K -14.59%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.23%EV +1.42%E +0.209%K +0.244%G +0.003%3.4%2026-04-06 19:40
NetBet (FR)12.50I 8.00%NM 7.26%EV -9.19%E -0.735%K -0.799%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 77.60%EV -8.95%E -7.65%K -52.65%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.13%EV -10.51%E -1.75%K -2.10%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-06 18:59
Coral12.00I 8.33%NM 7.89%EV -12.82%E -1.07%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.56%EV -5.06%E -4.15%K -22.99%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV -3.06%E -0.470%K -0.556%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-06 15:05
Ladbrokes (UK)12.00I 8.33%NM 7.89%EV -12.82%E -1.07%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.56%EV -5.06%E -4.15%K -22.99%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV -3.06%E -0.470%K -0.556%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-06 15:05
BetUS12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -12.82%E -1.07%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.70%EV -5.84%E -4.82%K -27.79%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.46%EV -3.06%E -0.470%K -0.556%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-06 19:39
Everygame12.00I 8.33%NM 7.74%EV -12.82%E -1.07%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.40%EV -6.62%E -5.51%K -33.08%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -6.79%E -1.09%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-06 18:50
888sport12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV -12.82%E -1.07%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -6.62%E -5.51%K -33.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -10.51%E -1.75%K -2.10%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-06 19:35
William Hill12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV -12.82%E -1.07%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -6.62%E -5.51%K -33.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -10.51%E -1.75%K -2.10%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-06 19:40
Mr Green (SE)12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV -12.82%E -1.07%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -6.62%E -5.51%K -33.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -10.51%E -1.75%K -2.10%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-06 19:35
888sport (SE)12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV -12.82%E -1.07%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -6.62%E -5.51%K -33.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -10.51%E -1.75%K -2.10%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-06 19:35
Betway12.00I 8.33%NM 7.69%EV -12.82%E -1.07%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -6.62%E -5.51%K -33.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -10.51%E -1.75%K -2.10%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-06 18:50
Ladbrokes (AU)11.50I 8.70%NM 8.15%EV -16.45%E -1.43%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.85%EV -5.06%E -4.15%K -22.99%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.00%EV -6.79%E -1.09%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-06 15:00
Neds11.50I 8.70%NM 8.15%EV -16.45%E -1.43%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.85%EV -5.06%E -4.15%K -22.99%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.00%EV -6.79%E -1.09%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-06 15:05
BetMGM11.50I 8.70%NM 8.15%EV -16.45%E -1.43%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.85%EV -5.06%E -4.15%K -22.99%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.00%EV -6.79%E -1.09%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-06 15:05
Marathon Bet11.50I 8.70%NM 8.12%EV -16.45%E -1.43%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 74.10%EV -1.95%E -1.54%K -7.48%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.78%EV -21.70%E -4.13%K -5.11%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-06 17:00
Winamax (DE)11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -20.09%E -1.83%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.30%EV -6.62%E -5.51%K -33.08%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -3.06%E -0.470%K -0.556%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-06 19:20
BoyleSports11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -20.09%E -1.83%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.39%EV -6.62%E -5.51%K -33.08%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -10.51%E -1.75%K -2.10%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-06 19:40
Winamax (FR)10.50I 9.52%NM 8.64%EV -23.72%E -2.26%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 76.24%EV -7.39%E -6.21%K -38.91%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.12%EV -10.51%E -1.75%K -2.10%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-06 19:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)19.50I 5.13%NM 5.09%1.23I 81.30%NM 80.72%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.18%0.7%2026-04-06 19:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)19.00I 5.26%NM 5.22%1.23I 81.30%NM 80.62%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.17%0.8%2026-04-06 19:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)19.00I 5.26%NM 5.22%1.23I 81.30%NM 80.62%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.17%0.8%2026-04-06 19:40
Matchbook19.00I 5.26%NM 5.22%1.23I 81.30%NM 80.62%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.17%0.8%2026-04-06 19:40
Smarkets18.48I 5.41%NM 5.30%1.22I 81.97%NM 80.29%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.41%2.1%2026-04-06 19:40
Kalshi16.67I 6.00%NM 5.75%1.23I 81.30%NM 77.94%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.30%4.3%2026-04-06 19:40