The School of Odds

Benfica v Académico de Viseu

2026-08-09 19:30 UTC — Primeira Liga - Portugal

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Benfica (Local)

Prediction 87.37%1.14fair odd
EV -5.64%
Edge -5.22%
Kelly -70.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
81.78%87.37%87.37%88.83%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.031.061.061.0897.09%94.43%94.34%92.59%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Académico de Viseu (Visit)

Prediction 2.95%33.93fair odd
EV +6.09%
Edge +0.169%
Kelly +0.174%
Growth +0.011%

assuming max odds 36.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.62%2.95%2.95%5.26%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
16.0028.7030.0036.006.25%3.48%3.33%2.78%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 9.68%10.33fair odd
EV +6.47%
Edge +0.588%
Kelly +0.647%
Growth +0.042%

assuming max odds 11.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.56%9.68%9.68%12.96%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
6.509.539.7511.0015.38%10.50%10.26%9.09%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
FanDuel1.07I 93.46%NM 88.73%EV -6.51%E -6.08%K -92.99%G +0.000%36.00I 2.78%NM 2.64%EV +6.09%E +0.169%K +0.174%G +0.011%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.63%EV +6.47%E +0.588%K +0.647%G +0.042%5.3%2026-07-26 06:48
SportsBet1.07I 93.46%NM 88.59%EV -6.51%E -6.08%K -92.99%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.79%EV +0.192%E +0.006%K +0.006%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.62%EV +6.47%E +0.588%K +0.647%G +0.042%5.5%2026-07-26 06:49
Paddy Power1.06I 94.34%NM 88.83%EV -7.38%E -6.97%K -123.06%G +0.000%36.00I 2.78%NM 2.62%EV +6.09%E +0.169%K +0.174%G +0.011%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV +6.47%E +0.588%K +0.647%G +0.042%6.2%2026-07-26 06:48
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.06I 94.34%NM 88.83%EV -7.38%E -6.97%K -123.06%G +0.000%36.00I 2.78%NM 2.62%EV +6.09%E +0.169%K +0.174%G +0.011%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV +6.47%E +0.588%K +0.647%G +0.042%6.2%2026-07-26 06:49
Betr (AU)1.08I 92.59%NM 87.50%EV -5.64%E -5.22%K -70.45%G +0.000%31.00I 3.23%NM 3.05%EV -8.65%E -0.279%K -0.288%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.45%EV -3.21%E -0.321%K -0.357%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-26 06:49
Bet Right1.07I 93.46%NM 86.99%EV -6.51%E -6.08%K -92.99%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.21%EV -14.54%E -0.501%K -0.519%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.80%EV -8.05%E -0.847%K -0.947%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-26 06:49
Sky Bet1.05I 95.24%NM 86.03%EV -8.26%E -7.86%K -165.14%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.93%EV -32.22%E -1.40%K -1.46%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.04%EV -12.89%E -1.43%K -1.61%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-26 06:49
Betclic (FR)1.06I 94.34%NM 86.02%EV -7.38%E -6.97%K -123.06%G +0.000%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.26%EV -17.49%E -0.625%K -0.648%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.73%EV -17.73%E -2.09%K -2.36%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-26 06:49
Winamax (DE)1.04I 96.15%NM 83.89%EV -9.13%E -8.78%K -228.27%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 4.85%EV -46.96%E -2.61%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.26%EV -24.99%E -3.22%K -3.70%G +0.000%14.6%2026-07-26 06:49
Winamax (FR)1.03I 97.09%NM 81.78%EV -10.00%E -9.71%K -333.49%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.26%EV -52.85%E -3.30%K -3.52%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 12.96%EV -37.09%E -5.71%K -6.74%G +0.000%18.7%2026-07-26 06:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.04I 96.15%NM 82.51%21.01I 4.76%NM 4.08%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.41%16.5%2026-07-26 06:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.07I 93.46%NM 69.28%5.50I 18.18%NM 13.48%4.30I 23.26%NM 17.24%34.9%2026-07-26 06:49
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.07I 93.46%NM 69.28%5.50I 18.18%NM 13.48%4.30I 23.26%NM 17.24%34.9%2026-07-26 06:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.07I 93.46%NM 69.28%5.50I 18.18%NM 13.48%4.30I 23.26%NM 17.24%34.9%2026-07-26 06:49