Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Benfica v Académico de Viseu

Início: 2026-08-09 19:30 UTC

Final: Benfica 2–2 Académico de Viseu

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

45 casas de apostas (16 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Benfica (Local)

Previsão 85.00%1.18odd justa
EV -3.94%
Vantagem -3.49%
Kelly -30.34%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.13

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
82.63%84.83%85.11%86.76%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.061.091.091.1394.34%91.46%91.74%88.50%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Académico de Viseu (Visitante)

Previsão 4.65%21.49odd justa
EV +20.98%
Vantagem +0.807%
Kelly +0.839%
Crescimento +0.176%

pressupondo odds máximas de 26.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
3.58%4.84%4.64%7.27%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
12.5020.2320.0026.008.00%4.94%5.00%3.85%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 10.34%9.67odd justa
EV +8.59%
Vantagem +0.818%
Kelly +0.905%
Crescimento +0.078%

pressupondo odds máximas de 10.50

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
9.09%10.33%10.26%11.86%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
7.909.079.0010.5012.66%11.03%11.11%9.52%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Benfica (Local): 85.00%; Académico de Viseu (Visitante): 4.65%; Empate: 10.34%. Para Académico de Viseu (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 21.49. 15 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 26.00, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +20.98%.

Odds das casas de apostas (45 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
SportsBet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.22%EV -7.34%E -6.74%K -81.61%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.61%EV +20.98%E +0.807%K +0.839%G +0.176%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.16%EV -4.33%E -0.469%K -0.525%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-09 19:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.34%EV -6.49%E -5.90%K -64.95%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.61%EV +20.98%E +0.807%K +0.839%G +0.176%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.04%EV -12.09%E -1.42%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-09 19:25
Paddy Power🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.09%EV -8.19%E -7.59%K -102.44%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.58%EV +20.98%E +0.807%K +0.839%G +0.176%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.33%EV -6.92%E -0.769%K -0.865%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-09 19:15
Coolbet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.64%EV -5.64%E -5.09%K -51.32%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.80%EV +16.33%E +0.653%K +0.680%G +0.111%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.56%EV -6.92%E -0.769%K -0.865%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-09 18:58
Betsson🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -5.64%E -5.09%K -51.32%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.75%EV +16.33%E +0.653%K +0.680%G +0.111%7.90I 12.66%NM 11.86%EV -18.30%E -2.32%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 19:05
NordicBet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -5.64%E -5.09%K -51.32%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.75%EV +16.33%E +0.653%K +0.680%G +0.111%7.90I 12.66%NM 11.86%EV -18.30%E -2.32%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-09 19:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.76%EV -6.49%E -5.90%K -64.95%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.15%EV +7.02%E +0.305%K +0.319%G +0.022%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.09%EV +8.59%E +0.818%K +0.905%G +0.078%4.8%2026-08-09 16:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.76%EV -6.49%E -5.90%K -64.95%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.15%EV +7.02%E +0.305%K +0.319%G +0.022%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.09%EV +8.59%E +0.818%K +0.905%G +0.078%4.8%2026-08-09 16:25
Betr (AU)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.47%EV -6.49%E -5.90%K -64.95%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.09%EV +7.02%E +0.305%K +0.319%G +0.022%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -6.92%E -0.769%K -0.865%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-09 19:25
PlayUp🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.25%EV -5.64%E -5.09%K -51.32%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.07%EV +7.02%E +0.305%K +0.319%G +0.022%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.69%EV -17.26%E -2.16%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-09 19:00
Sky Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.58%EV -8.19%E -7.59%K -102.44%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.07%EV +7.02%E +0.305%K +0.319%G +0.022%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV +3.42%E +0.342%K +0.380%G +0.013%6.9%2026-08-09 19:15
FanDuel🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.06%EV -7.34%E -6.74%K -81.61%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.03%EV +7.02%E +0.305%K +0.319%G +0.022%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.91%EV -12.09%E -1.42%K -1.61%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-09 19:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 85.29%EV -9.05%E -8.45%K -129.21%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.97%EV +7.02%E +0.305%K +0.319%G +0.022%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.74%EV -12.09%E -1.42%K -1.61%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-09 19:15
Pinnacle🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 86.60%EV -5.64%E -5.09%K -51.32%G +0.000%22.81I 4.38%NM 4.21%EV +6.14%E +0.269%K +0.281%G +0.017%10.46I 9.56%NM 9.19%EV +8.18%E +0.782%K +0.865%G +0.071%4.0%2026-08-09 19:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.42%EV -8.19%E -7.59%K -102.44%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.24%EV +2.37%E +0.108%K +0.113%G +0.003%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.33%EV +3.42%E +0.342%K +0.380%G +0.013%7.1%2026-08-09 19:15
Bet Right🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.62%EV -6.49%E -5.90%K -64.95%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.43%EV -2.28%E -0.109%K -0.114%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.95%EV -12.09%E -1.42%K -1.61%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-09 19:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.62%EV -6.49%E -5.90%K -64.95%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.43%EV -2.28%E -0.109%K -0.114%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.95%EV -12.09%E -1.42%K -1.61%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-09 19:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.53%EV -7.34%E -6.74%K -81.61%G +0.000%20.50I 4.88%NM 4.55%EV -4.61%E -0.225%K -0.236%G +0.000%9.40I 10.64%NM 9.92%EV -2.78%E -0.296%K -0.331%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-09 19:25
DraftKings🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.84%EV -6.49%E -5.90%K -64.95%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.72%EV -6.94%E -0.347%K -0.365%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.44%EV +3.42%E +0.342%K +0.380%G +0.013%5.9%2026-08-09 19:25
Casumo🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.53%EV -7.34%E -6.74%K -81.61%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.66%EV -6.94%E -0.347%K -0.365%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.81%EV -1.75%E -0.184%K -0.206%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-09 17:30
Grosvenor🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.53%EV -7.34%E -6.74%K -81.61%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.66%EV -6.94%E -0.347%K -0.365%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.81%EV -1.75%E -0.184%K -0.206%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-09 17:30
betPARX🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.53%EV -7.34%E -6.74%K -81.61%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.66%EV -6.94%E -0.347%K -0.365%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.81%EV -1.75%E -0.184%K -0.206%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-09 16:25
Bally Bet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.53%EV -7.34%E -6.74%K -81.61%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.66%EV -6.94%E -0.347%K -0.365%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.81%EV -1.75%E -0.184%K -0.206%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-09 16:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.39%EV -3.94%E -3.49%K -30.34%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.02%EV -11.59%E -0.610%K -0.644%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.60%EV -6.92%E -0.769%K -0.865%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-09 19:00
Coral🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.39%EV -3.94%E -3.49%K -30.34%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.02%EV -11.59%E -0.610%K -0.644%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.60%EV -6.92%E -0.769%K -0.865%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-09 19:00
Fanatics🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.09%EV -5.64%E -5.09%K -51.32%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.97%EV -11.59%E -0.610%K -0.644%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -1.75%E -0.184%K -0.206%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-09 19:25
Bovada🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.42%EV -6.49%E -5.90%K -64.95%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.95%EV -11.59%E -0.610%K -0.644%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.64%EV +0.836%E +0.086%K +0.096%G +0.001%6.4%2026-08-09 19:13
betfred_uk🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 84.35%EV -7.34%E -6.74%K -81.61%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.84%EV -11.59%E -0.610%K -0.644%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -12.09%E -1.42%K -1.61%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-09 19:25
Unibet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 85.09%EV -9.05%E -8.45%K -129.21%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.79%EV -11.59%E -0.610%K -0.644%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%EV -6.92%E -0.769%K -0.865%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-09 16:25
BetRivers🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 85.09%EV -9.05%E -8.45%K -129.21%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.79%EV -11.59%E -0.610%K -0.644%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%EV -6.92%E -0.769%K -0.865%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-09 17:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 85.09%EV -9.05%E -8.45%K -129.21%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.79%EV -11.59%E -0.610%K -0.644%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%EV -6.92%E -0.769%K -0.865%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-09 16:25
TABtouch🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 85.09%EV -9.05%E -8.45%K -129.21%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.79%EV -11.59%E -0.610%K -0.644%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%EV -6.92%E -0.769%K -0.865%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-09 17:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 85.09%EV -9.05%E -8.45%K -129.21%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.79%EV -11.59%E -0.610%K -0.644%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%EV -6.92%E -0.769%K -0.865%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-09 16:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 85.21%EV -9.90%E -9.33%K -164.92%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.75%EV -11.59%E -0.610%K -0.644%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.04%EV -6.92%E -0.769%K -0.865%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-09 17:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 85.21%EV -9.90%E -9.33%K -164.92%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.75%EV -11.59%E -0.610%K -0.644%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.04%EV -6.92%E -0.769%K -0.865%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-09 17:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 85.21%EV -9.90%E -9.33%K -164.92%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.75%EV -11.59%E -0.610%K -0.644%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.04%EV -6.92%E -0.769%K -0.865%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-09 17:25
BetMGM🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.90%EV -3.94%E -3.49%K -30.34%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.27%EV -16.24%E -0.902%K -0.955%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.83%EV -9.51%E -1.09%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-09 18:58
Neds🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.50%EV -4.79%E -4.28%K -39.96%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV -20.90%E -1.23%K -1.31%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -12.09%E -1.42%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-09 18:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.50%EV -4.79%E -4.28%K -39.96%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV -20.90%E -1.23%K -1.31%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -12.09%E -1.42%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-09 18:55
BetUS🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.99%EV -5.64%E -5.09%K -51.32%G +0.000%16.50I 6.06%NM 5.65%EV -23.22%E -1.41%K -1.50%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -6.92%E -0.769%K -0.865%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-09 19:15
NetBet (FR)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 84.22%EV -9.90%E -9.33%K -164.92%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.58%EV -25.55%E -1.60%K -1.70%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.20%EV -9.51%E -1.09%K -1.23%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-09 19:25
Betway🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.52%EV -5.64%E -5.09%K -51.32%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.18%EV -30.20%E -2.01%K -2.16%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.30%EV -6.92%E -0.769%K -0.865%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-09 19:14
Winamax (DE)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 83.77%EV -7.34%E -6.74%K -81.61%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.09%EV -30.20%E -2.01%K -2.16%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.15%EV -6.92%E -0.769%K -0.865%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-09 19:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 83.40%EV -8.19%E -7.59%K -102.44%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.00%EV -30.20%E -2.01%K -2.16%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.60%EV -12.09%E -1.42%K -1.61%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-09 19:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 82.63%EV -6.49%E -5.90%K -64.95%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.27%EV -41.84%E -3.35%K -3.64%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.10%EV -6.92%E -0.769%K -0.865%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-09 19:09
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (5)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.13I 88.50%NM 88.17%36.00I 2.78%NM 2.77%11.00I 9.09%NM 9.06%0.4%2026-08-09 19:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.13I 88.50%NM 88.17%36.00I 2.78%NM 2.77%11.00I 9.09%NM 9.06%0.4%2026-08-09 19:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.13I 88.50%NM 87.69%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.30%11.00I 9.09%NM 9.01%0.9%2026-08-09 19:25
Matchbook1.13I 88.50%NM 87.69%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.30%11.00I 9.09%NM 9.01%0.9%2026-08-09 19:25
Smarkets1.12I 89.29%NM 87.68%28.99I 3.45%NM 3.39%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.93%1.8%2026-08-09 19:25