Language:English
Nieciecza v Legia Warszawa
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Nieciecza (Local)
Prediction 19.51%5.12fair odd
EV +1.46%
Edge +0.282%
Kelly +0.349%
Growth +0.005%
assuming max odds 5.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.95%19.44%19.55%20.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.304.704.695.2023.26%21.30%21.34%19.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Legia Warszawa (Visit)
Prediction 57.02%1.75fair odd
EV -2.50%
Edge -1.46%
Kelly -3.52%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.71
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.73%57.05%56.94%58.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.621.621.7165.36%61.89%61.92%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 23.47%4.26fair odd
EV -1.42%
Edge -0.338%
Kelly -0.444%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.78%23.51%23.52%24.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.883.904.2028.57%25.78%25.64%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nieciecza (Local): 19.51%; Legia Warszawa (Visit): 57.02%; Draw: 23.47%. For Nieciecza (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.12. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.46%.
Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.95%EV +1.46%E +0.282%K +0.349%G +0.005% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 58.71%EV -9.34%E -5.88%K -15.84%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -6.12%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-10 15:28 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 5.19I 19.27%NM 18.48%EV +1.27%E +0.245%K +0.303%G +0.004% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.43%EV -4.78%E -2.86%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 3.98I 25.13%NM 24.10%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-10 15:29 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.39%EV -0.487%E -0.095%K -0.119%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.55%EV -7.06%E -4.33%K -11.21%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -8.46%E -2.17%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-10 15:29 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.39%EV -0.487%E -0.095%K -0.119%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.55%EV -7.06%E -4.33%K -11.21%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -8.46%E -2.17%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-10 15:29 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.15%EV -2.44%E -0.488%K -0.609%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.04%EV -5.92%E -3.59%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.80%EV -1.42%E -0.338%K -0.444%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-10 15:29 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.94%EV -2.44%E -0.488%K -0.609%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.39%EV -5.92%E -3.59%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.67%EV -6.12%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-10 15:28 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.29%EV -2.44%E -0.488%K -0.609%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.26%EV -10.48%E -6.68%K -18.39%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.45%EV -8.46%E -2.17%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-10 15:29 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.60%EV -3.41%E -0.690%K -0.864%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.18%EV -8.20%E -5.10%K -13.45%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.23%EV -10.81%E -2.84%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-10 15:21 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.88%EV -4.39%E -0.896%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 56.77%EV -7.06%E -4.33%K -11.21%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -10.81%E -2.84%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-10 15:29 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.58%EV -6.34%E -1.32%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.62%EV -5.35%E -3.22%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.80%EV -7.29%E -1.85%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-10 15:29 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.58%EV -6.34%E -1.32%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.62%EV -5.35%E -3.22%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.80%EV -7.29%E -1.85%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-10 15:29 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.32%EV -6.34%E -1.32%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 56.90%EV -7.06%E -4.33%K -11.21%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.78%EV -8.46%E -2.17%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-10 15:28 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.12%EV -6.34%E -1.32%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.35%EV -8.77%E -5.48%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -8.46%E -2.17%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-10 15:29 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.94%EV -6.34%E -1.32%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.48%EV -8.20%E -5.10%K -13.45%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.58%EV -13.16%E -3.56%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-10 15:29 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.74%EV -7.32%E -1.54%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.82%EV -5.92%E -3.59%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -6.12%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-10 15:29 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.53%EV -7.32%E -1.54%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.27%EV -7.63%E -4.71%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -6.12%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-10 15:29 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.46%EV -7.32%E -1.54%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.42%EV -8.20%E -5.10%K -13.45%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -6.12%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-10 15:29 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.96%EV -7.32%E -1.54%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.35%EV -10.48%E -6.68%K -18.39%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.69%EV -10.81%E -2.84%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-05-10 15:29 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.05%EV -8.29%E -1.76%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.09%EV -4.21%E -2.51%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.86%EV -7.29%E -1.85%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-10 15:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.78%EV -8.29%E -1.76%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.69%EV -6.49%E -3.96%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.54%EV -7.29%E -1.85%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-10 15:26 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.78%EV -8.29%E -1.76%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.69%EV -6.49%E -3.96%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.54%EV -7.29%E -1.85%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-10 15:29 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.78%EV -8.29%E -1.76%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.69%EV -6.49%E -3.96%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.54%EV -7.29%E -1.85%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-10 15:29 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.65%EV -8.29%E -1.76%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 56.67%EV -7.06%E -4.33%K -11.21%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.68%EV -8.46%E -2.17%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-10 15:29 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.67I 21.41%NM 20.34%EV -8.88%E -1.90%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.55%EV -2.50%E -1.46%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 3.94I 25.38%NM 24.11%EV -7.52%E -1.91%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-10 15:29 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.02%EV -9.27%E -1.99%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.42%EV -5.92%E -3.59%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.57%EV -7.29%E -1.85%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-10 15:29 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.02%EV -9.27%E -1.99%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.42%EV -5.92%E -3.59%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.57%EV -7.29%E -1.85%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-10 15:29 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.25%EV -10.24%E -2.23%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.46%EV -5.92%E -3.59%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -6.12%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-10 15:29 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.04%EV -10.24%E -2.23%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.91%EV -7.63%E -4.71%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -6.12%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-10 15:29 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.99%EV -10.24%E -2.23%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 56.42%EV -7.06%E -4.33%K -11.21%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.58%EV -8.46%E -2.17%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-10 15:29 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.85%EV -10.24%E -2.23%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.73%EV -8.20%E -5.10%K -13.45%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -8.46%E -2.17%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-10 15:28 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.79%EV -10.24%E -2.23%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.56%EV -8.20%E -5.10%K -13.45%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.65%EV -9.64%E -2.50%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-10 15:29 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.79%EV -10.24%E -2.23%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.56%EV -8.20%E -5.10%K -13.45%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.65%EV -9.64%E -2.50%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-10 15:29 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.66%EV -10.24%E -2.23%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.53%EV -8.77%E -5.48%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.80%EV -10.81%E -2.84%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-05-10 15:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.66%EV -10.24%E -2.23%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.53%EV -8.77%E -5.48%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.80%EV -10.81%E -2.84%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-05-10 15:29 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.39%EV -10.24%E -2.23%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.82%EV -10.48%E -6.68%K -18.39%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.79%EV -11.98%E -3.20%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-10 15:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.25%EV -12.19%E -2.71%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.96%EV -8.77%E -5.48%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -6.12%E -1.53%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-10 15:29 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.81%EV -12.19%E -2.71%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 56.42%EV -9.91%E -6.27%K -17.09%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.77%EV -11.98%E -3.20%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-05-10 15:29 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.67%EV -12.19%E -2.71%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 56.73%EV -11.05%E -7.09%K -19.74%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.60%EV -11.98%E -3.20%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-05-10 15:29 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.64%EV -12.19%E -2.71%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 57.40%EV -12.19%E -7.92%K -22.58%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 22.96%EV -9.64%E -2.50%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-05-10 15:24 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.60%EV -12.19%E -2.71%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 56.55%EV -11.05%E -7.09%K -19.74%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.84%EV -13.16%E -3.56%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-05-10 15:29 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.13%EV -12.19%E -2.71%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 56.27%EV -12.76%E -8.34%K -24.08%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.60%EV -17.85%E -5.10%K -7.14%G +0.000% | 16.2% | 2026-05-10 15:29 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.52%EV -14.15%E -3.21%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.73%EV -5.92%E -3.59%K -9.11%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.74%EV -14.33%E -3.93%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-10 15:29 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.64%EV -15.51%E -3.58%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 55.85%EV -8.77%E -5.48%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.52%EV -10.81%E -2.84%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-10 15:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.64%EV -15.51%E -3.58%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 55.85%EV -8.77%E -5.48%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.52%EV -10.81%E -2.84%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-10 15:29 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.36%EV -15.51%E -3.58%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.14%EV -10.48%E -6.68%K -18.39%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.50%EV -11.98%E -3.20%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-05-10 15:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.46%EV -16.10%E -3.74%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 56.39%EV -11.05%E -7.09%K -19.74%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.15%EV -10.81%E -2.84%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-05-10 15:29 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.18% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.44% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.38% | 1.9% | 2026-05-10 15:29 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.18% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.44% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.38% | 1.9% | 2026-05-10 15:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.18% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.44% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.38% | 1.9% | 2026-05-10 15:29 |
| Matchbook◎ | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.18% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.44% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.38% | 1.9% | 2026-05-10 15:29 |
| Smarkets◎ | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.12% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.59% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.30% | 2.2% | 2026-05-10 15:29 |