Language:English
Nieciecza v Lechia Gdańsk
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Nieciecza (Local)
Prediction 25.02%4.00fair odd
EV -1.16%
Edge -0.295%
Kelly -0.394%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.95
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.67%25.09%24.93%26.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.693.703.9530.30%27.10%27.03%25.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Lechia Gdańsk (Visit)
Prediction 53.25%1.88fair odd
EV -4.15%
Edge -2.31%
Kelly -5.19%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.82%53.25%53.18%54.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.721.731.8061.73%58.01%57.80%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 21.73%4.60fair odd
EV +0.825%
Edge +0.178%
Kelly +0.227%
Growth +0.002%
assuming max odds 4.64
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.42%21.66%21.88%25.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.304.184.204.6430.30%23.94%23.81%21.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nieciecza (Local): 25.02%; Lechia Gdańsk (Visit): 53.25%; Draw: 21.73%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.60. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.64, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.825%.
Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.68I 27.17%NM 25.75%EV -7.92%E -2.15%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.83%EV -6.28%E -3.57%K -8.27%G +0.000% | 4.64I 21.55%NM 20.42%EV +0.825%E +0.178%K +0.227%G +0.002% | 5.5% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.82%EV -8.67%E -2.38%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.24%EV -5.75%E -3.25%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.94%EV -2.22%E -0.493%K -0.633%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -7.42%E -2.01%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.28%EV -8.94%E -5.23%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -2.22%E -0.493%K -0.633%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -7.42%E -2.01%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.16%EV -8.94%E -5.23%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.81%EV -3.30%E -0.742%K -0.958%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.90%EV -11.17%E -3.15%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.45%EV -8.41%E -4.89%K -11.68%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.66%EV -3.30%E -0.742%K -0.958%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-23 15:28 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.66%EV -12.42%E -3.55%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.13%EV -4.68%E -2.62%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.21%EV -4.39%E -0.998%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.66%EV -12.42%E -3.55%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.13%EV -4.68%E -2.62%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.21%EV -4.39%E -0.998%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.66%EV -12.42%E -3.55%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.13%EV -4.68%E -2.62%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.21%EV -4.39%E -0.998%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -9.92%E -2.76%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.51%EV -8.41%E -4.89%K -11.68%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -4.39%E -0.998%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -12.42%E -3.55%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.52%EV -6.81%E -3.89%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.22%EV -5.91%E -1.37%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -9.92%E -2.76%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.33%EV -8.41%E -4.89%K -11.68%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.19%EV -5.91%E -1.37%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.79%EV -3.67%E -0.952%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.02%EV -4.15%E -2.31%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.19%EV -6.56%E -1.53%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -2.41%E -0.619%K -0.833%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.75%EV -6.81%E -3.89%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%EV -7.65%E -1.80%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.35%EV -8.67%E -2.38%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.88%EV -6.81%E -3.89%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.77%EV -7.65%E -1.80%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV -1.16%E -0.295%K -0.394%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.77%EV -6.81%E -3.89%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV -1.16%E -0.295%K -0.394%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.77%EV -6.81%E -3.89%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV -1.16%E -0.295%K -0.394%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.77%EV -6.81%E -3.89%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV -1.16%E -0.295%K -0.394%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.77%EV -6.81%E -3.89%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.98%EV -2.41%E -0.619%K -0.833%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.75%EV -7.35%E -4.22%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.27%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -2.41%E -0.619%K -0.833%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.89%EV -7.88%E -4.55%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -2.41%E -0.619%K -0.833%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.89%EV -7.88%E -4.55%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-23 15:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -2.41%E -0.619%K -0.833%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.89%EV -7.88%E -4.55%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -2.41%E -0.619%K -0.833%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.89%EV -7.88%E -4.55%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -2.41%E -0.619%K -0.833%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.89%EV -7.88%E -4.55%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -12.42%E -3.55%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -6.81%E -3.89%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -12.42%E -3.55%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -6.81%E -3.89%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -12.42%E -3.55%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -6.81%E -3.89%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.32%EV -9.92%E -2.76%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.99%EV -8.41%E -4.89%K -11.68%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.70%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.93%EV -12.42%E -3.55%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.46%EV -7.88%E -4.55%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.61%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.16%EV -17.43%E -5.28%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 53.29%EV -13.74%E -8.48%K -22.16%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.55%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 15.8% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -6.17%E -1.64%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.39%EV -8.41%E -4.89%K -11.68%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.13%EV -9.82%E -2.37%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -6.17%E -1.64%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.39%EV -8.41%E -4.89%K -11.68%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.13%EV -9.82%E -2.37%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -9.92%E -2.76%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.99%EV -5.75%E -3.25%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -10.91%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.86%EV -3.67%E -0.952%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.73%EV -8.94%E -5.23%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%EV -10.91%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.75%EV -7.42%E -2.01%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.92%EV -7.88%E -4.55%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.33%EV -10.91%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.03%EV -4.92%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.71%EV -9.48%E -5.57%K -13.54%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.27%EV -10.91%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-23 15:28 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.87%EV -4.92%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.00%EV -10.54%E -6.28%K -15.50%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.13%EV -10.91%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.87%EV -4.92%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.00%EV -10.54%E -6.28%K -15.50%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.13%EV -10.91%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.52%EV -7.42%E -2.01%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.36%EV -9.48%E -5.57%K -13.54%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.12%EV -10.91%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -6.17%E -1.64%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -7.88%E -4.55%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -13.08%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.04%EV -9.92%E -2.76%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.42%EV -8.41%E -4.89%K -11.68%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.54%EV -13.08%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.67%EV -4.92%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.85%EV -11.07%E -6.63%K -16.53%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -13.08%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.75%EV -6.17%E -1.64%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 53.98%EV -12.14%E -7.36%K -18.68%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.27%EV -13.08%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.63I 27.55%NM 24.35%EV -9.17%E -2.53%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 53.56%EV -12.14%E -7.36%K -18.68%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.09%EV -13.08%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-05-23 15:28 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.97%EV -14.93%E -4.39%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 51.95%EV -9.48%E -5.57%K -13.54%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.08%EV -13.08%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.38%EV -13.67%E -3.96%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 52.74%EV -11.61%E -6.99%K -17.59%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.89%EV -13.08%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.77%EV -7.42%E -2.01%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 53.96%EV -13.20%E -8.10%K -20.96%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.27%EV -14.17%E -3.59%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.24%EV -7.42%E -2.01%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.76%EV -9.48%E -5.57%K -13.54%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.00%EV -15.25%E -3.91%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.24%EV -7.42%E -2.01%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.76%EV -9.48%E -5.57%K -13.54%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.00%EV -15.25%E -3.91%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 25.59%EV -17.43%E -5.28%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 48.82%EV -7.88%E -4.55%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 25.59%EV -28.29%E -8.57%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 18.4% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.86% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.82% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.32% | 0.4% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.86% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.82% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.32% | 0.4% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.75% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.59% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66% | 0.9% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.00% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.41% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.59% | 1.2% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.42% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 53.76% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.82% | 2.2% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Kalshi◎ | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.25% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.32% | 4.76I 21.01%NM 20.43% | 2.8% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |