La escuela de los momiosEspañol
Nieciecza v Lechia Gdańsk
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Nieciecza (Local)
Predicción 25.02%4.00momio equitativo
EV -1.16%
Ventaja -0.295%
Kelly -0.394%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.95
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.67%25.09%24.93%26.66%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.303.693.703.9530.30%27.10%27.03%25.32%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Lechia Gdańsk (Visitante)
Predicción 53.25%1.88momio equitativo
EV -4.15%
Ventaja -2.31%
Kelly -5.19%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.80
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
48.82%53.25%53.18%54.28%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.621.721.731.8061.73%58.01%57.80%55.56%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 21.73%4.60momio equitativo
EV +0.825%
Ventaja +0.178%
Kelly +0.227%
Crecimiento +0.002%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.64
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.42%21.66%21.88%25.59%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.304.184.204.6430.30%23.94%23.81%21.55%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (50 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate ▼ | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 3.68I 27.17%NM 25.75%EV -7.92%E -2.15%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.83%EV -6.28%E -3.57%K -8.27%G +0.000% | 4.64I 21.55%NM 20.42%EV +0.825%E +0.178%K +0.227%G +0.002% | 5.5% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| DraftKings | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.82%EV -8.67%E -2.38%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.24%EV -5.75%E -3.25%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.94%EV -2.22%E -0.493%K -0.633%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| FanDuel | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -7.42%E -2.01%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.28%EV -8.94%E -5.23%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -2.22%E -0.493%K -0.633%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Marathon Bet | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -7.42%E -2.01%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.16%EV -8.94%E -5.23%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.81%EV -3.30%E -0.742%K -0.958%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Bovada | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.90%EV -11.17%E -3.15%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.45%EV -8.41%E -4.89%K -11.68%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.66%EV -3.30%E -0.742%K -0.958%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-23 15:28 |
| LowVig.ag | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.66%EV -12.42%E -3.55%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.13%EV -4.68%E -2.62%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.21%EV -4.39%E -0.998%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| BetOnline.ag | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.66%EV -12.42%E -3.55%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.13%EV -4.68%E -2.62%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.21%EV -4.39%E -0.998%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| BetUS | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.66%EV -12.42%E -3.55%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.13%EV -4.68%E -2.62%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.21%EV -4.39%E -0.998%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Tipico (DE) | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -9.92%E -2.76%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.51%EV -8.41%E -4.89%K -11.68%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -4.39%E -0.998%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Betway | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -12.42%E -3.55%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.52%EV -6.81%E -3.89%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.22%EV -5.91%E -1.37%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| SportsBet | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -9.92%E -2.76%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.33%EV -8.41%E -4.89%K -11.68%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.19%EV -5.91%E -1.37%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Coolbet | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.79%EV -3.67%E -0.952%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.02%EV -4.15%E -2.31%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.19%EV -6.56%E -1.53%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Unibet (UK) | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -2.41%E -0.619%K -0.833%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.75%EV -6.81%E -3.89%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%EV -7.65%E -1.80%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| 1xBet | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.35%EV -8.67%E -2.38%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.88%EV -6.81%E -3.89%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.77%EV -7.65%E -1.80%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Unibet | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV -1.16%E -0.295%K -0.394%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.77%EV -6.81%E -3.89%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Unibet (SE) | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV -1.16%E -0.295%K -0.394%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.77%EV -6.81%E -3.89%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Unibet (NL) | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV -1.16%E -0.295%K -0.394%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.77%EV -6.81%E -3.89%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| ATG (SE) | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV -1.16%E -0.295%K -0.394%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.77%EV -6.81%E -3.89%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| BetMGM | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.98%EV -2.41%E -0.619%K -0.833%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.75%EV -7.35%E -4.22%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.27%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Grosvenor | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -2.41%E -0.619%K -0.833%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.89%EV -7.88%E -4.55%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| BetRivers | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -2.41%E -0.619%K -0.833%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.89%EV -7.88%E -4.55%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-23 15:25 |
| Casumo | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -2.41%E -0.619%K -0.833%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.89%EV -7.88%E -4.55%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Svenska Spel | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -2.41%E -0.619%K -0.833%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.89%EV -7.88%E -4.55%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| betPARX | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -2.41%E -0.619%K -0.833%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.89%EV -7.88%E -4.55%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| 888sport | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -12.42%E -3.55%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -6.81%E -3.89%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| 888sport (SE) | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -12.42%E -3.55%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -6.81%E -3.89%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -12.42%E -3.55%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.17%EV -6.81%E -3.89%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Winamax (DE) | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.32%EV -9.92%E -2.76%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.99%EV -8.41%E -4.89%K -11.68%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.70%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Paddy Power | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.93%EV -12.42%E -3.55%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.46%EV -7.88%E -4.55%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.61%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| BoyleSports | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.16%EV -17.43%E -5.28%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 53.29%EV -13.74%E -8.48%K -22.16%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.55%EV -8.74%E -2.08%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 15.8% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| NordicBet | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -6.17%E -1.64%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.39%EV -8.41%E -4.89%K -11.68%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.13%EV -9.82%E -2.37%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Betsson | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -6.17%E -1.64%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.39%EV -8.41%E -4.89%K -11.68%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.13%EV -9.82%E -2.37%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Fanatics | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -9.92%E -2.76%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.99%EV -5.75%E -3.25%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -10.91%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| TABtouch | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.86%EV -3.67%E -0.952%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.73%EV -8.94%E -5.23%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%EV -10.91%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Codere (IT) | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.75%EV -7.42%E -2.01%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.92%EV -7.88%E -4.55%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.33%EV -10.91%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Bet Victor | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.03%EV -4.92%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.71%EV -9.48%E -5.57%K -13.54%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.27%EV -10.91%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-23 15:28 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.87%EV -4.92%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.00%EV -10.54%E -6.28%K -15.50%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.13%EV -10.91%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| LiveScore Bet | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.87%EV -4.92%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.00%EV -10.54%E -6.28%K -15.50%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.13%EV -10.91%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| PlayUp | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.52%EV -7.42%E -2.01%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.36%EV -9.48%E -5.57%K -13.54%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.12%EV -10.91%E -2.66%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| betfred_uk | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -6.17%E -1.64%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -7.88%E -4.55%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -13.08%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Betr (AU) | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.04%EV -9.92%E -2.76%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 52.42%EV -8.41%E -4.89%K -11.68%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.54%EV -13.08%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Virgin Bet | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.67%EV -4.92%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.85%EV -11.07%E -6.63%K -16.53%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -13.08%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| LeoVegas | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.75%EV -6.17%E -1.64%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 53.98%EV -12.14%E -7.36%K -18.68%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.27%EV -13.08%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Betclic (FR) | 3.63I 27.55%NM 24.35%EV -9.17%E -2.53%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 53.56%EV -12.14%E -7.36%K -18.68%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.09%EV -13.08%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-05-23 15:28 |
| Sky Bet | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.97%EV -14.93%E -4.39%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 51.95%EV -9.48%E -5.57%K -13.54%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.08%EV -13.08%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Winamax (FR) | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.38%EV -13.67%E -3.96%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 52.74%EV -11.61%E -6.99%K -17.59%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.89%EV -13.08%E -3.27%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| PMU (FR) | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.77%EV -7.42%E -2.01%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 53.96%EV -13.20%E -8.10%K -20.96%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.27%EV -14.17%E -3.59%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Coral | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.24%EV -7.42%E -2.01%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.76%EV -9.48%E -5.57%K -13.54%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.00%EV -15.25%E -3.91%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-23 15:29 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.24%EV -7.42%E -2.01%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.76%EV -9.48%E -5.57%K -13.54%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.00%EV -15.25%E -3.91%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 3.30I 30.30%NM 25.59%EV -17.43%E -5.28%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 48.82%EV -7.88%E -4.55%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 25.59%EV -28.29%E -8.57%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 18.4% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (6)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.86% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.82% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.32% | 0.4% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.86% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.82% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.32% | 0.4% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Matchbook | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.75% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.59% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66% | 0.9% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.00% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.41% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.59% | 1.2% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Smarkets | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.42% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 53.76% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.82% | 2.2% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |
| Kalshi | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.25% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.32% | 4.76I 21.01%NM 20.43% | 2.8% | 2026-05-23 15:30 |