Language:English
Legia Warszawa v Górnik Zabrze
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Legia Warszawa (Local)
Prediction 43.90%2.28fair odd
EV -1.22%
Edge -0.540%
Kelly -0.973%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.05%43.80%44.05%45.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.932.082.072.2551.81%48.14%48.31%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Górnik Zabrze (Visit)
Prediction 27.44%3.64fair odd
EV -1.48%
Edge -0.411%
Kelly -0.570%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.59
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.31%27.40%27.52%28.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.343.353.5933.33%29.96%29.85%27.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 28.65%3.49fair odd
EV -2.58%
Edge -0.760%
Kelly -1.08%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.63%28.79%28.43%30.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.193.203.4034.72%31.33%31.25%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Legia Warszawa (Local): 43.90%; Górnik Zabrze (Visit): 27.44%; Draw: 28.65%. For Legia Warszawa (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.28. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.25, with an expected value of -1.22%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.80%EV -1.22%E -0.540%K -0.973%G +0.000% | 3.59I 27.86%NM 26.82%EV -1.48%E -0.411%K -0.570%G +0.000% | 3.17I 31.55%NM 30.38%EV -9.17%E -2.89%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-11 18:14 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.34%EV -4.73%E -2.18%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -6.69%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -14.04%E -4.68%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-11 18:14 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 42.93%EV -5.17%E -2.39%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 26.96%EV -5.59%E -1.63%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 30.11%EV -11.75%E -3.82%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-11 18:13 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 42.29%EV -5.17%E -2.39%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.27%EV -8.06%E -2.41%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -14.04%E -4.68%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-11 18:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 42.29%EV -5.17%E -2.39%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.27%EV -8.06%E -2.41%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -14.04%E -4.68%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-11 18:15 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.18%EV -5.61%E -2.61%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 27.30%EV -4.50%E -1.29%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 28.52%EV -4.59%E -1.38%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-11 18:14 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.61%E -2.61%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -6.69%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -2.58%E -0.760%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-11 18:14 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.61%E -2.61%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -5.45%E -1.65%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-11 18:14 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -5.61%E -2.61%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -8.31%E -2.60%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-11 18:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -5.61%E -2.61%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -14.04%E -4.68%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-11 18:14 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -5.61%E -2.61%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -14.04%E -4.68%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-11 18:14 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -5.61%E -2.61%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -14.04%E -4.68%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-11 18:14 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -5.61%E -2.61%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -10.81%E -3.33%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -14.04%E -4.68%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-04-11 18:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.80%E -3.71%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.69%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -2.58%E -0.760%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-11 18:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -7.80%E -3.71%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -6.69%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -5.45%E -1.65%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-11 18:12 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -7.80%E -3.71%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -10.81%E -3.33%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -6.88%E -2.12%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-11 18:14 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -7.80%E -3.71%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -6.69%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -11.18%E -3.61%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-11 18:15 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.43%EV -7.80%E -3.71%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.06%EV -10.81%E -3.33%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -8.31%E -2.60%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-11 18:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -7.80%E -3.71%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.38%EV -12.18%E -3.81%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.38%EV -8.31%E -2.60%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-11 18:14 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.14%EV -8.68%E -4.17%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -3.95%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -4.02%E -1.20%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-11 18:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.14%EV -8.68%E -4.17%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -3.95%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -4.02%E -1.20%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-11 18:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.14%EV -8.68%E -4.17%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -3.95%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -4.02%E -1.20%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-11 18:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.14%EV -8.68%E -4.17%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -3.95%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%EV -4.02%E -1.20%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-11 18:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.23%EV -8.68%E -4.17%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -8.06%E -2.41%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -6.88%E -2.12%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-11 18:14 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.23%EV -8.68%E -4.17%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -8.06%E -2.41%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -6.88%E -2.12%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-11 18:14 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.90%EV -9.12%E -4.41%K -8.52%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.94%EV -5.32%E -1.54%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.16%EV -5.45%E -1.65%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-11 18:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.90%EV -9.12%E -4.41%K -8.52%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.94%EV -5.32%E -1.54%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.16%EV -5.45%E -1.65%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-11 18:11 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.90%EV -9.12%E -4.41%K -8.52%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.94%EV -5.32%E -1.54%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.16%EV -5.45%E -1.65%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-11 18:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.90%EV -9.12%E -4.41%K -8.52%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.94%EV -5.32%E -1.54%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.16%EV -5.45%E -1.65%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-11 18:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.90%EV -9.12%E -4.41%K -8.52%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.94%EV -5.32%E -1.54%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.16%EV -5.45%E -1.65%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-11 18:15 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.35%EV -9.12%E -4.41%K -8.52%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.40%EV -8.06%E -2.41%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.25%EV -6.88%E -2.12%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-11 18:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -10.00%E -4.88%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.93%EV -5.32%E -1.54%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.74%EV -4.02%E -1.20%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-11 18:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -10.00%E -4.88%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -6.69%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -5.45%E -1.65%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-11 18:14 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -10.00%E -4.88%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -3.95%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -8.31%E -2.60%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-11 18:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -10.00%E -4.88%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -5.45%E -1.65%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-11 18:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.22%EV -10.00%E -4.88%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.89%EV -10.81%E -3.33%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.89%EV -6.88%E -2.12%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-04-11 18:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.81%EV -10.00%E -4.88%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -11.18%E -3.61%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-11 18:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.44%EV -10.00%E -4.88%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.83%EV -12.18%E -3.81%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -11.18%E -3.61%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-04-11 18:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.44%EV -10.00%E -4.88%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.83%EV -12.18%E -3.81%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -11.18%E -3.61%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-04-11 18:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.06%EV -10.00%E -4.88%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.47%EV -14.92%E -4.81%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.47%EV -11.18%E -3.61%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-04-11 18:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.03%EV -10.00%E -4.88%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.57%EV -12.18%E -3.81%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.40%EV -14.04%E -4.68%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-04-11 18:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.95%EV -11.31%E -5.60%K -11.09%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.11%EV -8.06%E -2.41%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -6.88%E -2.12%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-11 18:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.95%EV -11.31%E -5.60%K -11.09%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.11%EV -8.06%E -2.41%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -6.88%E -2.12%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-11 18:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -12.19%E -6.10%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.87%EV -8.06%E -2.41%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -8.31%E -2.60%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-04-11 18:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 43.86%EV -12.19%E -6.10%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.85%EV -13.55%E -4.30%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.30%EV -11.18%E -3.61%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-04-11 18:14 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 42.35%EV -12.19%E -6.10%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.24%EV -17.67%E -5.89%K -8.83%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 29.41%EV -17.48%E -6.07%K -9.30%G +0.000% | 18.1% | 2026-04-11 18:15 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 44.69%EV -13.07%E -6.60%K -13.34%G +0.000% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 27.40%EV -11.36%E -3.52%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 3.17I 31.55%NM 27.91%EV -9.17%E -2.89%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-04-11 18:14 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 44.69%EV -13.07%E -6.60%K -13.34%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.22%EV -10.81%E -3.33%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.09%EV -9.75%E -3.09%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-04-11 18:14 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 45.20%EV -13.51%E -6.86%K -13.93%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.98%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.82%EV -8.31%E -2.60%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-04-11 18:15 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.06%EV -14.39%E -7.38%K -15.14%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.04%EV -10.81%E -3.33%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.90%EV -9.75%E -3.09%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-04-11 18:15 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 44.53%EV -15.27%E -7.91%K -16.41%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.29%EV -13.55%E -4.30%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.18%EV -12.61%E -4.13%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 16.3% | 2026-04-11 18:14 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.56% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.61% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.83% | 1.6% | 2026-04-11 18:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.56% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.61% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.83% | 1.6% | 2026-04-11 18:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.56% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.61% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.83% | 1.6% | 2026-04-11 18:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.65% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.16% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.19% | 2.3% | 2026-04-11 18:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.00% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.40% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.60% | 2.4% | 2026-04-11 18:15 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.46% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.32% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 30.21% | 6.1% | 2026-04-11 18:15 |