Language:English
Lech Poznań v Raków Częstochowa
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Lech Poznań (Local)
Prediction 59.75%1.67fair odd
EV -4.41%
Edge -2.75%
Kelly -7.34%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.15%59.75%59.74%62.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.471.541.531.6068.03%65.00%65.36%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Raków Częstochowa (Visit)
Prediction 18.69%5.35fair odd
EV -0.955%
Edge -0.180%
Kelly -0.222%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 5.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.43%18.65%18.68%20.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.504.925.005.3022.22%20.34%20.00%18.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 21.57%4.64fair odd
EV +0.495%
Edge +0.106%
Kelly +0.135%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 4.66
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.94%21.60%21.59%22.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.184.204.6625.64%23.93%23.81%21.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lech Poznań (Local): 59.75%; Raków Częstochowa (Visit): 18.69%; Draw: 21.57%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.64. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.66, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.495%.
Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -4.41%E -2.75%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 4.66I 21.46%NM 20.36%EV -12.92%E -2.77%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 4.66I 21.46%NM 20.36%EV +0.495%E +0.106%K +0.135%G +0.001% | 5.4% | 2026-09-06 15:25 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.41%EV -12.17%E -8.28%K -25.90%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.64%EV -2.82%E -0.543%K -0.672%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.94%EV -0.798%E -0.174%K -0.222%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-06 15:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.90%EV -4.41%E -2.75%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 5.23I 19.12%NM 18.32%EV -2.26%E -0.433%K -0.535%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.78%EV -5.11%E -1.16%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.24%EV -5.60%E -3.54%K -9.66%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.13%EV -1.89%E -0.360%K -0.445%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.63%EV -5.11%E -1.16%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-06 14:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.55%EV -5.00%E -3.15%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.94%EV -6.56%E -1.31%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.52%EV -5.11%E -1.16%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.58%EV -10.38%E -6.92%K -20.76%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.43%EV -0.955%E -0.180%K -0.222%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.99%EV -5.11%E -1.16%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-06 11:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 59.67%EV -9.18%E -6.04%K -17.66%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.72%EV -14.04%E -3.05%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.61%EV -5.11%E -1.16%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-06 15:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.01%EV -7.39%E -4.77%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -6.56%E -1.31%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.38%EV -6.19%E -1.42%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.64%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.73%EV -6.56%E -1.31%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.63%EV -6.62%E -1.53%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.26%EV -8.59%E -5.61%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.44%EV -6.56%E -1.31%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.29%EV -6.62%E -1.53%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-06 15:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.93%EV -6.79%E -4.36%K -12.13%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.33%EV -4.69%E -0.920%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.74%EV -7.27%E -1.69%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-06 15:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.24%EV -7.99%E -5.19%K -14.80%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.19%EV -4.69%E -0.920%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.57%EV -7.27%E -1.69%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.55%EV -9.18%E -6.04%K -17.66%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.05%EV -4.69%E -0.920%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.40%EV -7.27%E -1.69%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-06 11:10 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.56%EV -7.99%E -5.19%K -14.80%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.11%EV -10.30%E -2.15%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.33%EV -7.27%E -1.69%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-06 15:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.45%EV -10.38%E -6.92%K -20.76%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.82%EV -15.91%E -3.53%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.74%EV -7.27%E -1.69%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 59.73%EV -9.18%E -6.04%K -17.66%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.91%EV -10.30%E -2.15%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.36%EV -8.35%E -1.96%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 59.73%EV -9.18%E -6.04%K -17.66%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.91%EV -10.30%E -2.15%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.36%EV -8.35%E -1.96%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02%EV -2.82%E -0.543%K -0.672%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -9.42%E -2.24%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02%EV -2.82%E -0.543%K -0.672%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -9.42%E -2.24%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02%EV -2.82%E -0.543%K -0.672%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -9.42%E -2.24%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02%EV -2.82%E -0.543%K -0.672%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -9.42%E -2.24%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02%EV -2.82%E -0.543%K -0.672%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -9.42%E -2.24%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02%EV -2.82%E -0.543%K -0.672%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -9.42%E -2.24%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02%EV -2.82%E -0.543%K -0.672%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -9.42%E -2.24%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.10%EV -5.60%E -3.54%K -9.66%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -6.56%E -1.31%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.23%EV -9.42%E -2.24%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.10%EV -5.60%E -3.54%K -9.66%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -6.56%E -1.31%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.23%EV -9.42%E -2.24%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.10%EV -5.60%E -3.54%K -9.66%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -6.56%E -1.31%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.23%EV -9.42%E -2.24%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.87%EV -8.59%E -5.61%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -6.56%E -1.31%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.81%EV -9.42%E -2.24%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-06 11:10 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.87%EV -8.59%E -5.61%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -6.56%E -1.31%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.81%EV -9.42%E -2.24%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-06 15:23 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.87%EV -8.59%E -5.61%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -6.56%E -1.31%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.81%EV -9.42%E -2.24%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -10.38%E -6.92%K -20.76%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -6.56%E -1.31%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -9.42%E -2.24%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-06 11:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -10.38%E -6.92%K -20.76%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -6.56%E -1.31%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -9.42%E -2.24%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.25%EV -6.79%E -4.36%K -12.13%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.48%EV -6.56%E -1.31%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.27%EV -10.50%E -2.53%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-06 15:24 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 59.42%EV -10.98%E -7.37%K -22.40%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.25%EV -14.04%E -3.05%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 21.33%EV -10.50%E -2.53%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.93%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -6.56%E -1.31%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.57%EV -11.58%E -2.82%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-06 15:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 59.26%EV -9.18%E -6.04%K -17.66%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.77%EV -10.30%E -2.15%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.97%EV -11.58%E -2.82%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-06 14:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 59.27%EV -10.98%E -7.37%K -22.40%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.20%EV -14.04%E -3.05%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.54%EV -11.58%E -2.82%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-09-06 15:20 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 59.59%EV -12.17%E -8.28%K -25.90%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.04%EV -14.04%E -3.05%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.37%EV -11.58%E -2.82%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-09-06 15:09 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.15%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -10.30%E -2.15%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -13.74%E -3.43%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-06 15:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.15%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -10.30%E -2.15%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -13.74%E -3.43%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-06 15:10 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.15%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -10.30%E -2.15%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -13.74%E -3.43%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-06 15:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.58%EV -7.39%E -4.77%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 18.72%EV -9.36%E -1.93%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -13.74%E -3.43%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 58.85%EV -7.99%E -5.19%K -14.80%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.50%EV -8.43%E -1.72%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.66%EV -13.74%E -3.43%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 58.82%EV -9.18%E -6.04%K -17.66%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.82%EV -11.23%E -2.36%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.35%EV -13.74%E -3.43%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-06 14:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.31%EV -8.59%E -5.61%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.39%EV -14.04%E -3.05%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.30%EV -13.74%E -3.43%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.31%EV -8.59%E -5.61%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.39%EV -14.04%E -3.05%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.30%EV -13.74%E -3.43%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.14%EV -10.38%E -6.92%K -20.76%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.68%EV -11.23%E -2.36%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.18%EV -13.74%E -3.43%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-09-06 11:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.54%EV -10.38%E -6.92%K -20.76%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.51%EV -15.91%E -3.53%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.95%EV -13.74%E -3.43%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-09-06 15:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.61%EV -8.59%E -5.61%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.68%EV -10.30%E -2.15%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.70%EV -14.82%E -3.75%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-06 15:25 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.81%EV -10.38%E -6.92%K -20.76%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.57%EV -11.23%E -2.36%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.62%EV -15.89%E -4.08%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.81%EV -10.38%E -6.92%K -20.76%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.57%EV -11.23%E -2.36%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.62%EV -15.89%E -4.08%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.81%EV -10.38%E -6.92%K -20.76%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.57%EV -11.23%E -2.36%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.62%EV -15.89%E -4.08%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.81%EV -10.38%E -6.92%K -20.76%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.57%EV -11.23%E -2.36%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.62%EV -15.89%E -4.08%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 62.00% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.21% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.79% | 0.2% | 2026-09-06 15:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.54% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.38% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08% | 0.9% | 2026-09-06 15:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.54% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.38% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08% | 0.9% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.54% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.38% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08% | 0.9% | 2026-09-06 15:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.60I 62.50%NM 61.41% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 17.24% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.36% | 1.8% | 2026-09-06 15:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.73% | 5.56I 17.99%NM 17.65% | 4.76I 21.01%NM 20.62% | 1.9% | 2026-09-06 14:46 |