Modèle par défautMoyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Lech Poznań v Raków Częstochowa

Coup d’envoi : 2026-09-06 15:30 UTC

Score final : Lech Poznań 1–0 Raków Częstochowa

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

53 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Lech Poznań (Local)

Prévision 59.75%1.67cote équitable
EV -4.41%
Avantage -2.75%
Kelly -7.34%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.60

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
58.15%59.75%59.74%62.41%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
1.471.541.531.6068.03%65.00%65.36%62.50%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Raków Częstochowa (Visiteur)

Prévision 18.69%5.35cote équitable
EV -0.955%
Avantage -0.180%
Kelly -0.222%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 5.30

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
17.43%18.65%18.68%20.36%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
4.504.925.005.3022.22%20.34%20.00%18.87%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Match nul

Prévision 21.57%4.64cote équitable
EV +0.495%
Avantage +0.106%
Kelly +0.135%
Croissance +0.001%

avec la cote maximale 4.66

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
19.94%21.60%21.59%22.83%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
3.904.184.204.6625.64%23.93%23.81%21.46%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : Lech Poznań (Local) : 59.75% ; Raków Częstochowa (Visiteur) : 18.69% ; Match nul : 21.57%. Pour Match nul, cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 4.64. 1 opérateur proposait une cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil ; la meilleure était 4.66, soit une espérance positive de +0.495%.

Cotes des opérateurs (53 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nul ▼MargeMise à jour
1xBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -4.41%E -2.75%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.66I 21.46%NM 20.36%EV -12.92%E -2.77%K -3.53%G +0.000%4.66I 21.46%NM 20.36%EV +0.495%E +0.106%K +0.135%G +0.001%5.4%2026-09-06 15:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.41%EV -12.17%E -8.28%K -25.90%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.64%EV -2.82%E -0.543%K -0.672%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.94%EV -0.798%E -0.174%K -0.222%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-06 15:05
Pinnacle🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.90%EV -4.41%E -2.75%K -7.34%G +0.000%5.23I 19.12%NM 18.32%EV -2.26%E -0.433%K -0.535%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.78%EV -5.11%E -1.16%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-06 15:15
Coolbet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.24%EV -5.60%E -3.54%K -9.66%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.13%EV -1.89%E -0.360%K -0.445%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.63%EV -5.11%E -1.16%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-06 14:10
DraftKings🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.55%EV -5.00%E -3.15%K -8.48%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.94%EV -6.56%E -1.31%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.52%EV -5.11%E -1.16%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-06 15:15
FanDuel🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.58%EV -10.38%E -6.92%K -20.76%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.43%EV -0.955%E -0.180%K -0.222%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.99%EV -5.11%E -1.16%K -1.50%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-06 11:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.67%EV -9.18%E -6.04%K -17.66%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.72%EV -14.04%E -3.05%K -3.90%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.61%EV -5.11%E -1.16%K -1.50%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-06 15:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.01%EV -7.39%E -4.77%K -13.44%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -6.56%E -1.31%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.38%EV -6.19%E -1.42%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-06 15:15
BetMGM🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.64%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.73%EV -6.56%E -1.31%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.63%EV -6.62%E -1.53%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-06 15:15
Betway🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.26%EV -8.59%E -5.61%K -16.20%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.44%EV -6.56%E -1.31%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.29%EV -6.62%E -1.53%K -1.99%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-06 15:25
Unibet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.93%EV -6.79%E -4.36%K -12.13%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.33%EV -4.69%E -0.920%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.74%EV -7.27%E -1.69%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 15:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.24%EV -7.99%E -5.19%K -14.80%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.19%EV -4.69%E -0.920%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.57%EV -7.27%E -1.69%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-06 15:15
SportsBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.55%EV -9.18%E -6.04%K -17.66%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.05%EV -4.69%E -0.920%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.40%EV -7.27%E -1.69%K -2.20%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-06 11:10
Codere (IT)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.56%EV -7.99%E -5.19%K -14.80%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.11%EV -10.30%E -2.15%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.33%EV -7.27%E -1.69%K -2.20%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-06 15:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.45%EV -10.38%E -6.92%K -20.76%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.82%EV -15.91%E -3.53%K -4.54%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.74%EV -7.27%E -1.69%K -2.20%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-06 15:15
NordicBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.73%EV -9.18%E -6.04%K -17.66%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.91%EV -10.30%E -2.15%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.36%EV -8.35%E -1.96%K -2.57%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-06 15:15
Betsson🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.73%EV -9.18%E -6.04%K -17.66%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.91%EV -10.30%E -2.15%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.36%EV -8.35%E -1.96%K -2.57%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-06 15:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02%EV -2.82%E -0.543%K -0.672%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -9.42%E -2.24%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 15:15
Casumo🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02%EV -2.82%E -0.543%K -0.672%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -9.42%E -2.24%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 15:15
Grosvenor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02%EV -2.82%E -0.543%K -0.672%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -9.42%E -2.24%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 15:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02%EV -2.82%E -0.543%K -0.672%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -9.42%E -2.24%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 15:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02%EV -2.82%E -0.543%K -0.672%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -9.42%E -2.24%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 15:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02%EV -2.82%E -0.543%K -0.672%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -9.42%E -2.24%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 15:15
betPARX🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02%EV -2.82%E -0.543%K -0.672%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -9.42%E -2.24%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 15:15
BetOnline.ag🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.10%EV -5.60%E -3.54%K -9.66%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -6.56%E -1.31%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.23%EV -9.42%E -2.24%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-06 15:15
LowVig.ag🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.10%EV -5.60%E -3.54%K -9.66%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -6.56%E -1.31%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.23%EV -9.42%E -2.24%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-06 15:15
BetUS🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.10%EV -5.60%E -3.54%K -9.66%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -6.56%E -1.31%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.23%EV -9.42%E -2.24%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-06 15:15
betfred_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.87%EV -8.59%E -5.61%K -16.20%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -6.56%E -1.31%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.81%EV -9.42%E -2.24%K -2.95%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-06 11:10
betano_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.87%EV -8.59%E -5.61%K -16.20%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -6.56%E -1.31%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.81%EV -9.42%E -2.24%K -2.95%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-06 15:23
Bet Victor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.87%EV -8.59%E -5.61%K -16.20%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -6.56%E -1.31%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.81%EV -9.42%E -2.24%K -2.95%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-06 15:15
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -10.38%E -6.92%K -20.76%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -6.56%E -1.31%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -9.42%E -2.24%K -2.95%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-06 11:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -10.38%E -6.92%K -20.76%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -6.56%E -1.31%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -9.42%E -2.24%K -2.95%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-06 15:15
Bovada🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.25%EV -6.79%E -4.36%K -12.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.48%EV -6.56%E -1.31%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.27%EV -10.50%E -2.53%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-06 15:24
Betclic (FR)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 59.42%EV -10.98%E -7.37%K -22.40%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.25%EV -14.04%E -3.05%K -3.90%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.33%EV -10.50%E -2.53%K -3.33%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-06 15:15
Fanatics🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.93%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -6.56%E -1.31%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.57%EV -11.58%E -2.82%K -3.74%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-06 15:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.26%EV -9.18%E -6.04%K -17.66%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.77%EV -10.30%E -2.15%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.97%EV -11.58%E -2.82%K -3.74%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-06 14:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 59.27%EV -10.98%E -7.37%K -22.40%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.20%EV -14.04%E -3.05%K -3.90%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.54%EV -11.58%E -2.82%K -3.74%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-06 15:20
NetBet (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 59.59%EV -12.17%E -8.28%K -25.90%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.04%EV -14.04%E -3.05%K -3.90%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.37%EV -11.58%E -2.82%K -3.74%G +0.000%14.2%2026-09-06 15:09
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.15%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -10.30%E -2.15%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -13.74%E -3.43%K -4.58%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-06 15:10
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.15%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -10.30%E -2.15%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -13.74%E -3.43%K -4.58%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-06 15:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.15%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -10.30%E -2.15%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -13.74%E -3.43%K -4.58%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-06 15:10
PlayUp🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.58%EV -7.39%E -4.77%K -13.44%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 18.72%EV -9.36%E -1.93%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -13.74%E -3.43%K -4.58%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-06 15:15
BetRivers🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 58.85%EV -7.99%E -5.19%K -14.80%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.50%EV -8.43%E -1.72%K -2.16%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.66%EV -13.74%E -3.43%K -4.58%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-06 15:15
Bet Right🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.82%EV -9.18%E -6.04%K -17.66%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.82%EV -11.23%E -2.36%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.35%EV -13.74%E -3.43%K -4.58%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-06 14:15
Coral🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.31%EV -8.59%E -5.61%K -16.20%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.39%EV -14.04%E -3.05%K -3.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.30%EV -13.74%E -3.43%K -4.58%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-06 15:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.31%EV -8.59%E -5.61%K -16.20%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.39%EV -14.04%E -3.05%K -3.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.30%EV -13.74%E -3.43%K -4.58%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-06 15:15
Sky Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.14%EV -10.38%E -6.92%K -20.76%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.68%EV -11.23%E -2.36%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.18%EV -13.74%E -3.43%K -4.58%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-06 11:10
BoyleSports🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.54%EV -10.38%E -6.92%K -20.76%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.51%EV -15.91%E -3.53%K -4.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.95%EV -13.74%E -3.43%K -4.58%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-06 15:20
TABtouch🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.61%EV -8.59%E -5.61%K -16.20%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.68%EV -10.30%E -2.15%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.70%EV -14.82%E -3.75%K -5.02%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-06 15:25
PMU (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.81%EV -10.38%E -6.92%K -20.76%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.57%EV -11.23%E -2.36%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.62%EV -15.89%E -4.08%K -5.48%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-06 15:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.81%EV -10.38%E -6.92%K -20.76%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.57%EV -11.23%E -2.36%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.62%EV -15.89%E -4.08%K -5.48%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-06 15:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.81%EV -10.38%E -6.92%K -20.76%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.57%EV -11.23%E -2.36%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.62%EV -15.89%E -4.08%K -5.48%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-06 15:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.81%EV -10.38%E -6.92%K -20.76%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.57%EV -11.23%E -2.36%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.62%EV -15.89%E -4.08%K -5.48%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-06 15:15
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook◎1.61I 62.11%NM 62.00%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.21%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.79%0.2%2026-09-06 15:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.61I 62.11%NM 61.54%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.38%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08%0.9%2026-09-06 15:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.61I 62.11%NM 61.54%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.38%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08%0.9%2026-09-06 15:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.61I 62.11%NM 61.54%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.38%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08%0.9%2026-09-06 15:20
Smarkets◎1.60I 62.50%NM 61.41%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.24%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.36%1.8%2026-09-06 15:25
Kalshi◎1.59I 62.89%NM 61.73%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.65%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.62%1.9%2026-09-06 14:46