Model domyślnyŚrednia międzykwartylowa (Lista Wyselekcjonowana)

Lech Poznań v Raków Częstochowa

Początek: 2026-09-06 15:30 UTC

Wynik końcowy: Lech Poznań 1–0 Raków Częstochowa

Linia zamknięcia — prawdopodobieństwa i wartość oczekiwana obliczone przez wybrany model na podstawie ostatnich kursów zarejestrowanych przed rozpoczęciem. Spotkanie już trwa, więc nie są to dane bieżące. Oceń wiarygodność prognoz prawdopodobieństwa każdego modelu na tle wyników wszystkich rozstrzygniętych spotkań →

Zwycięzca spotkania

53 bukmacherów (20 w analizie )

Szacowane prawdopodobieństwo każdego wyniku według modelu: Średnia międzykwartylowa (Lista Wyselekcjonowana)

Lech Poznań (Gospodarze)

Prognoza 59.75%1.67kurs godziwy
EV -4.41%
Przewaga -2.75%
Kelly -7.34%
Wzrost +0.000%

przy maksymalnym kursie 1.60

Rozkład oszacowań prawdopodobieństwa bukmacherów
58.15%59.75%59.74%62.41%MIN.ŚREDNIAMEDIANAMAKS.
Rozkład kursów
1.471.541.531.6068.03%65.00%65.36%62.50%MIN.ŚREDNIAMEDIANAMAKS.

Raków Częstochowa (Goście)

Prognoza 18.69%5.35kurs godziwy
EV -0.955%
Przewaga -0.180%
Kelly -0.222%
Wzrost +0.000%

przy maksymalnym kursie 5.30

Rozkład oszacowań prawdopodobieństwa bukmacherów
17.43%18.65%18.68%20.36%MIN.ŚREDNIAMEDIANAMAKS.
Rozkład kursów
4.504.925.005.3022.22%20.34%20.00%18.87%MIN.ŚREDNIAMEDIANAMAKS.

Remis

Prognoza 21.57%4.64kurs godziwy
EV +0.495%
Przewaga +0.106%
Kelly +0.135%
Wzrost +0.001%

przy maksymalnym kursie 4.66

Rozkład oszacowań prawdopodobieństwa bukmacherów
19.94%21.60%21.59%22.83%MIN.ŚREDNIAMEDIANAMAKS.
Rozkład kursów
3.904.184.204.6625.64%23.93%23.81%21.46%MIN.ŚREDNIAMEDIANAMAKS.

Przy ostatnich kursach przed rozpoczęciem model Średnia międzykwartylowa (Lista Wyselekcjonowana) szacował rynek Zwycięzca spotkania następująco: Lech Poznań (Gospodarze): 59.75%; Raków Częstochowa (Goście): 18.69%; Remis: 21.57%. Dla wyniku Remis oszacowanie to odpowiadało uczciwemu kursowi dziesiętnemu 4.64. 1 bukmacher oferował kurs zamknięcia powyżej tego poziomu; najlepszy wynosił 4.66, co odpowiadało dodatniej wartości oczekiwanej +0.495%.

Kursy bukmacherskie (53 bukmacherów)

Nie jesteśmy powiązani z żadnym bukmacherem i nie czerpiemy korzyści z zawieranych u niego zakładów.

BukmacherGospodarzeGościeRemis ▼MarżaAktualizacja
1xBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -4.41%E -2.75%K -7.34%G +0.000%4.66I 21.46%NM 20.36%EV -12.92%E -2.77%K -3.53%G +0.000%4.66I 21.46%NM 20.36%EV +0.495%E +0.106%K +0.135%G +0.001%5.4%2026-09-06 15:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.41%EV -12.17%E -8.28%K -25.90%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.64%EV -2.82%E -0.543%K -0.672%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.94%EV -0.798%E -0.174%K -0.222%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-06 15:05
Pinnacle🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.90%EV -4.41%E -2.75%K -7.34%G +0.000%5.23I 19.12%NM 18.32%EV -2.26%E -0.433%K -0.535%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.78%EV -5.11%E -1.16%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-06 15:15
Coolbet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.24%EV -5.60%E -3.54%K -9.66%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.13%EV -1.89%E -0.360%K -0.445%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.63%EV -5.11%E -1.16%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-06 14:10
DraftKings🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.55%EV -5.00%E -3.15%K -8.48%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.94%EV -6.56%E -1.31%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.52%EV -5.11%E -1.16%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-06 15:15
FanDuel🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.58%EV -10.38%E -6.92%K -20.76%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.43%EV -0.955%E -0.180%K -0.222%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.99%EV -5.11%E -1.16%K -1.50%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-06 11:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.67%EV -9.18%E -6.04%K -17.66%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.72%EV -14.04%E -3.05%K -3.90%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.61%EV -5.11%E -1.16%K -1.50%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-06 15:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.01%EV -7.39%E -4.77%K -13.44%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -6.56%E -1.31%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.38%EV -6.19%E -1.42%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-06 15:15
BetMGM🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.64%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.73%EV -6.56%E -1.31%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.63%EV -6.62%E -1.53%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-06 15:15
Betway🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.26%EV -8.59%E -5.61%K -16.20%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.44%EV -6.56%E -1.31%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.29%EV -6.62%E -1.53%K -1.99%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-06 15:25
Unibet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.93%EV -6.79%E -4.36%K -12.13%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.33%EV -4.69%E -0.920%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.74%EV -7.27%E -1.69%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 15:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.24%EV -7.99%E -5.19%K -14.80%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.19%EV -4.69%E -0.920%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.57%EV -7.27%E -1.69%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-06 15:15
SportsBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.55%EV -9.18%E -6.04%K -17.66%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.05%EV -4.69%E -0.920%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.40%EV -7.27%E -1.69%K -2.20%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-06 11:10
Codere (IT)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.56%EV -7.99%E -5.19%K -14.80%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.11%EV -10.30%E -2.15%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.33%EV -7.27%E -1.69%K -2.20%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-06 15:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.45%EV -10.38%E -6.92%K -20.76%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.82%EV -15.91%E -3.53%K -4.54%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.74%EV -7.27%E -1.69%K -2.20%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-06 15:15
NordicBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.73%EV -9.18%E -6.04%K -17.66%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.91%EV -10.30%E -2.15%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.36%EV -8.35%E -1.96%K -2.57%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-06 15:15
Betsson🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.73%EV -9.18%E -6.04%K -17.66%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.91%EV -10.30%E -2.15%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.36%EV -8.35%E -1.96%K -2.57%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-06 15:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02%EV -2.82%E -0.543%K -0.672%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -9.42%E -2.24%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 15:15
Casumo🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02%EV -2.82%E -0.543%K -0.672%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -9.42%E -2.24%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 15:15
Grosvenor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02%EV -2.82%E -0.543%K -0.672%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -9.42%E -2.24%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 15:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02%EV -2.82%E -0.543%K -0.672%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -9.42%E -2.24%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 15:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02%EV -2.82%E -0.543%K -0.672%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -9.42%E -2.24%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 15:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02%EV -2.82%E -0.543%K -0.672%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -9.42%E -2.24%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 15:15
betPARX🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.68%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.02%EV -2.82%E -0.543%K -0.672%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.31%EV -9.42%E -2.24%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 15:15
BetOnline.ag🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.10%EV -5.60%E -3.54%K -9.66%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -6.56%E -1.31%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.23%EV -9.42%E -2.24%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-06 15:15
LowVig.ag🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.10%EV -5.60%E -3.54%K -9.66%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -6.56%E -1.31%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.23%EV -9.42%E -2.24%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-06 15:15
BetUS🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.10%EV -5.60%E -3.54%K -9.66%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -6.56%E -1.31%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.23%EV -9.42%E -2.24%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-06 15:15
betfred_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.87%EV -8.59%E -5.61%K -16.20%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -6.56%E -1.31%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.81%EV -9.42%E -2.24%K -2.95%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-06 11:10
betano_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.87%EV -8.59%E -5.61%K -16.20%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -6.56%E -1.31%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.81%EV -9.42%E -2.24%K -2.95%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-06 15:23
Bet Victor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.87%EV -8.59%E -5.61%K -16.20%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -6.56%E -1.31%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.81%EV -9.42%E -2.24%K -2.95%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-06 15:15
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -10.38%E -6.92%K -20.76%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -6.56%E -1.31%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -9.42%E -2.24%K -2.95%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-06 11:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -10.38%E -6.92%K -20.76%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -6.56%E -1.31%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -9.42%E -2.24%K -2.95%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-06 15:15
Bovada🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.25%EV -6.79%E -4.36%K -12.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.48%EV -6.56%E -1.31%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.27%EV -10.50%E -2.53%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-06 15:24
Betclic (FR)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 59.42%EV -10.98%E -7.37%K -22.40%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.25%EV -14.04%E -3.05%K -3.90%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.33%EV -10.50%E -2.53%K -3.33%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-06 15:15
Fanatics🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.93%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -6.56%E -1.31%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.57%EV -11.58%E -2.82%K -3.74%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-06 15:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.26%EV -9.18%E -6.04%K -17.66%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.77%EV -10.30%E -2.15%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.97%EV -11.58%E -2.82%K -3.74%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-06 14:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 59.27%EV -10.98%E -7.37%K -22.40%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.20%EV -14.04%E -3.05%K -3.90%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.54%EV -11.58%E -2.82%K -3.74%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-06 15:20
NetBet (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 59.59%EV -12.17%E -8.28%K -25.90%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.04%EV -14.04%E -3.05%K -3.90%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.37%EV -11.58%E -2.82%K -3.74%G +0.000%14.2%2026-09-06 15:09
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.15%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -10.30%E -2.15%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -13.74%E -3.43%K -4.58%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-06 15:10
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.15%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -10.30%E -2.15%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -13.74%E -3.43%K -4.58%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-06 15:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.15%EV -6.20%E -3.95%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.02%EV -10.30%E -2.15%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -13.74%E -3.43%K -4.58%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-06 15:10
PlayUp🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.58%EV -7.39%E -4.77%K -13.44%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 18.72%EV -9.36%E -1.93%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -13.74%E -3.43%K -4.58%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-06 15:15
BetRivers🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 58.85%EV -7.99%E -5.19%K -14.80%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.50%EV -8.43%E -1.72%K -2.16%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.66%EV -13.74%E -3.43%K -4.58%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-06 15:15
Bet Right🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 58.82%EV -9.18%E -6.04%K -17.66%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.82%EV -11.23%E -2.36%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.35%EV -13.74%E -3.43%K -4.58%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-06 14:15
Coral🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.31%EV -8.59%E -5.61%K -16.20%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.39%EV -14.04%E -3.05%K -3.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.30%EV -13.74%E -3.43%K -4.58%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-06 15:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.31%EV -8.59%E -5.61%K -16.20%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.39%EV -14.04%E -3.05%K -3.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.30%EV -13.74%E -3.43%K -4.58%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-06 15:15
Sky Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.14%EV -10.38%E -6.92%K -20.76%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.68%EV -11.23%E -2.36%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.18%EV -13.74%E -3.43%K -4.58%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-06 11:10
BoyleSports🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.54%EV -10.38%E -6.92%K -20.76%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.51%EV -15.91%E -3.53%K -4.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.95%EV -13.74%E -3.43%K -4.58%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-06 15:20
TABtouch🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.61%EV -8.59%E -5.61%K -16.20%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.68%EV -10.30%E -2.15%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.70%EV -14.82%E -3.75%K -5.02%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-06 15:25
PMU (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.81%EV -10.38%E -6.92%K -20.76%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.57%EV -11.23%E -2.36%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.62%EV -15.89%E -4.08%K -5.48%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-06 15:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.81%EV -10.38%E -6.92%K -20.76%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.57%EV -11.23%E -2.36%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.62%EV -15.89%E -4.08%K -5.48%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-06 15:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.81%EV -10.38%E -6.92%K -20.76%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.57%EV -11.23%E -2.36%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.62%EV -15.89%E -4.08%K -5.48%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-06 15:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.81%EV -10.38%E -6.92%K -20.76%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.57%EV -11.23%E -2.36%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.62%EV -15.89%E -4.08%K -5.48%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-06 15:15
Marża = Marża (suma nadmiarowa) · I = Prawdopodobieństwo implikowane · NM = Prawdopodobieństwo bez marży · EV = Wartość oczekiwana · E = Przewaga · K = Kryterium Kelly’ego · G = Wzrost kapitału

Aktualizacja oznacza chwilę ostatniej zmiany kursu przez danego bukmachera. Starszy czas wskazuje więc, że kurs się nie zmienił, a nie że jest nieaktualny. Bukmacherzy niewidoczni przez około 15 minut są zwykle usuwani; jedynie gdy zamilknie źródło danych całego rynku, wyświetlane są ostatnie zarejestrowane kursy.

Giełdy zakładów (6)

BukmacherGospodarzeGościeRemisMarża ▲Aktualizacja
Matchbook◎1.61I 62.11%NM 62.00%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.21%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.79%0.2%2026-09-06 15:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.61I 62.11%NM 61.54%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.38%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08%0.9%2026-09-06 15:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.61I 62.11%NM 61.54%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.38%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08%0.9%2026-09-06 15:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.61I 62.11%NM 61.54%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.38%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08%0.9%2026-09-06 15:20
Smarkets◎1.60I 62.50%NM 61.41%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.24%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.36%1.8%2026-09-06 15:25
Kalshi◎1.59I 62.89%NM 61.73%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.65%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.62%1.9%2026-09-06 14:46