Language:English
Lech Poznań v Legia Warszawa
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Lech Poznań (Local)
Prediction 46.36%2.16fair odd
EV -3.57%
Edge -1.72%
Kelly -3.30%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.08
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.39%46.40%46.36%48.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.951.952.0854.64%51.16%51.28%48.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Legia Warszawa (Visit)
Prediction 27.45%3.64fair odd
EV +0.206%
Edge +0.056%
Kelly +0.078%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.65
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.73%27.36%27.44%28.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.373.403.6533.90%29.68%29.41%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.18%3.82fair odd
EV -4.43%
Edge -1.21%
Kelly -1.67%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.65
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.40%26.24%26.20%28.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.463.503.6533.33%28.86%28.57%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lech Poznań (Local): 46.36%; Legia Warszawa (Visit): 27.45%; Draw: 26.18%. For Legia Warszawa (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.64. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.206%.
Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.17%EV -9.59%E -4.92%K -10.10%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.74%EV +0.206%E +0.056%K +0.078%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-19 15:35 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.17%EV -9.59%E -4.92%K -10.10%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.74%EV +0.206%E +0.056%K +0.078%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-19 15:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.17%EV -9.59%E -4.92%K -10.10%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.74%EV +0.206%E +0.056%K +0.078%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-19 15:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.17%EV -9.59%E -4.92%K -10.10%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.74%EV +0.206%E +0.056%K +0.078%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-19 15:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.26%EV -10.52%E -5.45%K -11.31%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -1.17%E -0.324%K -0.449%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-19 15:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.26%EV -10.52%E -5.45%K -11.31%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -1.17%E -0.324%K -0.449%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-19 15:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.26%EV -10.52%E -5.45%K -11.31%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -1.17%E -0.324%K -0.449%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-19 15:35 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.26%EV -10.52%E -5.45%K -11.31%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -1.17%E -0.324%K -0.449%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-19 15:35 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.26%EV -10.52%E -5.45%K -11.31%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -1.17%E -0.324%K -0.449%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-19 15:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.17%EV -11.45%E -5.99%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -2.54%E -0.715%K -0.996%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-19 15:35 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -10.52%E -5.45%K -11.31%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -3.91%E -1.12%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -8.35%E -2.39%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-21 09:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 48.08%EV -12.38%E -6.55%K -13.91%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -3.91%E -1.12%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -8.35%E -2.39%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-19 15:35 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.21%EV -12.84%E -6.83%K -14.59%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -3.91%E -1.12%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -8.35%E -2.39%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-04-19 15:35 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.16%EV -13.30%E -7.11%K -15.29%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.73%EV -3.91%E -1.12%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.11%EV -9.66%E -2.80%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-04-19 15:35 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.83%EV -6.35%E -3.14%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 3.47I 28.82%NM 27.26%EV -4.74%E -1.36%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.91%EV -4.43%E -1.21%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-23 15:59 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.07%EV -14.23%E -7.69%K -16.74%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.78%EV -5.29%E -1.53%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.16%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-04-19 15:35 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.55%EV -7.28%E -3.64%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 27.22%EV -6.11%E -1.79%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.23%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-23 16:09 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.80%EV -8.20%E -4.14%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 27.10%EV -6.11%E -1.79%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.10%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-23 15:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.67%EV -3.57%E -1.72%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.94%EV -6.66%E -1.96%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.39%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 21:04 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -7.28%E -3.64%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.66%E -1.96%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-24 03:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.06%EV -6.35%E -3.14%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.36%EV -6.66%E -1.96%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -8.35%E -2.39%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-23 15:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.48%EV -7.28%E -3.64%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -6.66%E -1.96%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.18%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-23 15:33 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.88%EV -6.35%E -3.14%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -6.66%E -1.96%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.86%EV -9.66%E -2.80%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-22 14:54 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.88%EV -6.35%E -3.14%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -6.66%E -1.96%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.86%EV -9.66%E -2.80%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-22 14:54 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -7.28%E -3.64%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -6.66%E -1.96%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-19 15:58 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.16%EV -15.16%E -8.28%K -18.26%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.92%EV -6.66%E -1.96%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.92%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-04-19 15:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.69%EV -6.35%E -3.14%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.55%EV -8.03%E -2.40%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -9.66%E -2.80%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-19 16:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.69%EV -6.35%E -3.14%K -6.22%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.55%EV -8.03%E -2.40%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -9.66%E -2.80%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-19 16:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.54%EV -8.20%E -4.14%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.51%EV -8.03%E -2.40%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.96%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-23 16:06 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.54%EV -8.20%E -4.14%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.51%EV -8.03%E -2.40%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.96%EV -7.04%E -1.98%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-23 16:04 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -7.28%E -3.64%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -9.40%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-23 21:03 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -7.28%E -3.64%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -9.40%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-23 05:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -7.28%E -3.64%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -9.40%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -8.35%E -2.39%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-23 21:04 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -7.28%E -3.64%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -9.40%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -8.35%E -2.39%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-23 21:04 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -9.59%E -4.92%K -10.10%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -9.40%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-23 16:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.21%EV -7.28%E -3.64%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -9.40%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -13.59%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-04-22 14:49 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.21%EV -7.28%E -3.64%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -9.40%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -13.59%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-04-22 14:49 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.21%EV -7.28%E -3.64%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -9.40%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -13.59%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-04-22 14:49 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -7.28%E -3.64%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -10.78%E -3.32%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -8.35%E -2.39%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-19 20:49 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 45.63%EV -8.20%E -4.14%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.80%EV -10.78%E -3.32%K -4.79%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.57%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-04-23 16:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.45%EV -9.59%E -4.92%K -10.10%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.70%EV -12.15%E -3.80%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.86%EV -13.59%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-04-21 15:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.45%EV -9.59%E -4.92%K -10.10%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.70%EV -12.15%E -3.80%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.86%EV -13.59%E -4.12%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-04-21 15:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 46.04%EV -12.38%E -6.55%K -13.91%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.19%EV -12.15%E -3.80%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.77%EV -14.90%E -4.58%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-04-20 15:35 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 45.36%EV -8.67%E -4.40%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.37%EV -13.52%E -4.29%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-04-24 02:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 46.10%EV -13.30%E -7.11%K -15.29%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.37%EV -13.52%E -4.29%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.53%EV -14.90%E -4.58%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 16.0% | 2026-04-19 16:48 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 46.37%EV -14.23%E -7.69%K -16.74%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.23%EV -13.52%E -4.29%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.40%EV -14.90%E -4.58%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 16.6% | 2026-04-23 05:09 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.40%EV -9.59%E -4.92%K -10.10%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.56%EV -14.89%E -4.80%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-04-23 21:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 45.92%EV -11.45%E -5.99%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.29%EV -14.89%E -4.80%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.79%EV -10.97%E -3.23%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-04-20 21:54 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 45.87%EV -11.91%E -6.27%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.11%EV -14.89%E -4.80%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.02%EV -12.28%E -3.67%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 14.7% | 2026-04-19 16:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 44.39%EV -11.45%E -5.99%K -12.58%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.35%EV -14.89%E -4.80%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.26%EV -21.45%E -7.15%K -10.72%G +0.000% | 17.9% | 2026-04-23 21:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 45.21%EV -13.77%E -7.40%K -16.01%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 28.51%EV -19.01%E -6.44%K -9.75%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 26.28%EV -16.21%E -5.07%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 18.9% | 2026-04-19 16:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.15% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15% | 6.2% | 2026-04-24 03:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.15% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15% | 6.2% | 2026-04-24 03:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.15% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15% | 6.2% | 2026-04-24 03:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.04% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20% | 7.5% | 2026-04-24 03:50 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.43% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 29.12% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 25.45% | 10.1% | 2026-04-24 00:29 |