The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Heerenveen v AZ Alkmaar

2026-09-06 12:30 UTC — Dutch Eredivisie

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Heerenveen (Local)

Prediction 24.15%4.14fair odd
EV +0.725%
Edge +0.174%
Kelly +0.229%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 4.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.97%24.14%24.07%26.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.803.804.1730.30%26.30%26.32%23.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

AZ Alkmaar (Visit)

Prediction 53.11%1.88fair odd
EV -2.81%
Edge -1.53%
Kelly -3.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.19%53.12%53.21%55.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.741.751.8361.73%57.33%57.14%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.73%4.40fair odd
EV -1.79%
Edge -0.414%
Kelly -0.538%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.78%22.74%22.71%23.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.034.004.3227.78%24.84%25.00%23.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Heerenveen (Local): 24.15%; AZ Alkmaar (Visit): 53.11%; Draw: 22.73%. For Heerenveen (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.14. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.17, producing a positive expected value of +0.725%.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯4.17I 23.98%NM 23.03%EV +0.725%E +0.174%K +0.229%G +0.002%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.95%EV -5.46%E -3.07%K -7.00%G +0.000%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.03%EV -5.20%E -1.25%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-30 15:20
Marathon Bet🎯4.05I 24.69%NM 23.04%EV -2.17%E -0.537%K -0.713%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.93%EV -8.12%E -4.69%K -11.12%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.04%EV -7.93%E -1.96%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 15:20
Fanatics🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.82%EV -3.38%E -0.845%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.94%EV -4.40%E -2.44%K -5.50%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.24%EV -6.79%E -1.66%K -2.19%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-30 14:25
SportsBet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -3.38%E -0.845%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.92%EV -8.12%E -4.69%K -11.12%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -6.79%E -1.66%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 15:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -3.38%E -0.845%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.92%EV -8.12%E -4.69%K -11.12%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -6.79%E -1.66%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 16:40
FanDuel🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.18%EV -3.38%E -0.845%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.21%EV -9.18%E -5.37%K -12.93%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -6.79%E -1.66%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-30 15:40
Pinnacle🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 24.05%EV -4.59%E -1.16%K -1.56%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.97%EV -6.52%E -3.71%K -8.59%G +0.000%4.32I 23.15%NM 21.99%EV -1.79%E -0.414%K -0.538%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-30 15:25
Betr (AU)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -5.80%E -1.49%K -2.00%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.89%EV -5.46%E -3.07%K -7.00%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -6.79%E -1.66%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-30 15:50
Bovada🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -5.80%E -1.49%K -2.00%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.75%EV -7.06%E -4.03%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%EV -3.38%E -0.795%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-30 15:20
Tipico (DE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -5.80%E -1.49%K -2.00%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.32%EV -7.06%E -4.03%K -9.41%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -6.79%E -1.66%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 16:00
Betclic (FR)🎯3.88I 25.77%NM 22.97%EV -6.28%E -1.62%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 55.02%EV -13.96%E -8.62%K -22.52%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.01%EV -7.93%E -1.96%K -2.60%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-30 15:55
Coolbet🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -7.00%E -1.82%K -2.46%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.74%EV -4.40%E -2.44%K -5.50%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.60%EV -4.51%E -1.07%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-30 15:45
PlayUp🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.80%EV -7.00%E -1.82%K -2.46%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.28%EV -8.65%E -5.03%K -12.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -9.06%E -2.27%K -3.02%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-30 15:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.84%EV -8.21%E -2.16%K -2.93%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.57%EV -2.81%E -1.53%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%EV -9.06%E -2.27%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 14:25
Coral🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.84%EV -8.21%E -2.16%K -2.93%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.57%EV -2.81%E -1.53%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%EV -9.06%E -2.27%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 14:25
BetMGM🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.84%EV -8.21%E -2.16%K -2.93%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.57%EV -2.81%E -1.53%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%EV -9.06%E -2.27%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 14:25
DraftKings🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -8.21%E -2.16%K -2.93%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.41%EV -7.59%E -4.36%K -10.25%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV -4.51%E -1.07%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-30 19:09
888sport🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -8.21%E -2.16%K -2.93%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.38%EV -7.06%E -4.03%K -9.41%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -11.34%E -2.91%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-30 14:25
William Hill🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -8.21%E -2.16%K -2.93%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.38%EV -7.06%E -4.03%K -9.41%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -11.34%E -2.91%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-30 14:24
888sport (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -8.21%E -2.16%K -2.93%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.38%EV -7.06%E -4.03%K -9.41%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -11.34%E -2.91%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-30 14:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -8.21%E -2.16%K -2.93%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.38%EV -7.06%E -4.03%K -9.41%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -11.34%E -2.91%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-30 14:25
Paddy Power🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.67%EV -8.21%E -2.16%K -2.93%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.85%EV -11.30%E -6.77%K -16.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -9.06%E -2.27%K -3.02%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-30 15:40
Betway🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -9.42%E -2.51%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.82%EV -9.71%E -5.71%K -13.87%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.78%EV -4.51%E -1.07%K -1.41%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-30 14:25
betfred_uk🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -9.42%E -2.51%K -3.43%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -8.12%E -4.69%K -11.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -9.06%E -2.27%K -3.02%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-30 15:40
Unibet (UK)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -10.63%E -2.87%K -3.94%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.64%EV -4.40%E -2.44%K -5.50%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -9.06%E -2.27%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-30 15:55
Codere (IT)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.31%EV -11.84%E -3.24%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 51.60%EV -4.93%E -2.76%K -6.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.09%EV -9.06%E -2.27%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-30 16:00
Sky Bet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 24.58%EV -15.46%E -4.42%K -6.18%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 51.52%EV -11.30%E -6.77%K -16.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.90%EV -18.16%E -5.04%K -6.98%G +0.000%16.2%2026-08-30 15:40
Unibet (FR)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 25.60%EV -17.87%E -5.26%K -7.45%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 51.19%EV -9.71%E -5.71%K -13.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.21%EV -14.75%E -3.93%K -5.36%G +0.000%14.9%2026-08-30 15:55
Winamax (DE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.19%EV -19.08%E -5.70%K -8.12%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 51.60%EV -9.71%E -5.71%K -13.87%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.21%EV -10.20%E -2.58%K -3.46%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-30 15:54
Winamax (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.17%EV -20.29%E -6.15%K -8.82%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 51.40%EV -10.77%E -6.41%K -15.84%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.43%EV -12.47%E -3.24%K -4.38%G +0.000%15.8%2026-08-30 15:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%6.5%2026-08-30 16:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%6.5%2026-08-30 16:45
Kalshi◎3.85I 25.97%NM 24.31%1.79I 55.87%NM 52.29%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%6.8%2026-08-30 19:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.70%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.88%9.3%2026-08-30 16:45
Smarkets◎2.78I 35.97%NM 28.57%1.75I 57.14%NM 45.39%3.05I 32.79%NM 26.04%25.9%2026-08-30 17:15