Modèle par défautMoyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Heerenveen v AZ Alkmaar

Coup d’envoi : 2026-09-06 12:30 UTC

Score final : Heerenveen 2–3 AZ Alkmaar

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

56 opérateurs (21 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Heerenveen (Local)

Prévision 25.23%3.96cote équitable
EV +5.73%
Avantage +1.37%
Kelly +1.80%
Croissance +0.103%

avec la cote maximale 4.19

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
23.10%25.30%25.23%26.59%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
3.303.693.704.1930.30%27.12%27.03%23.87%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

AZ Alkmaar (Visiteur)

Prévision 51.41%1.95cote équitable
EV -2.31%
Avantage -1.22%
Kelly -2.57%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.90

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
49.77%51.32%51.39%53.18%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
1.701.821.831.9058.82%54.97%54.79%52.63%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Match nul

Prévision 23.35%4.28cote équitable
EV -1.92%
Avantage -0.457%
Kelly -0.599%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.20

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
21.91%23.38%23.39%24.59%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
3.703.963.984.2027.03%25.28%25.16%23.81%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : Heerenveen (Local) : 25.23% ; AZ Alkmaar (Visiteur) : 51.41% ; Match nul : 23.35%. Pour Heerenveen (Local), cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 3.96. 1 opérateur proposait une cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil ; la meilleure était 4.19, soit une espérance positive de +5.73%.

Cotes des opérateurs (56 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
1xBet🎯4.19I 23.87%NM 23.10%EV +5.73%E +1.37%K +1.80%G +0.103%1.82I 54.95%NM 53.18%EV -6.43%E -3.53%K -7.84%G +0.000%4.08I 24.51%NM 23.72%EV -4.72%E -1.16%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-06 12:25
Pinnacle🎯3.93I 25.45%NM 24.58%EV -0.834%E -0.212%K -0.285%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.21%EV -4.88%E -2.64%K -5.75%G +0.000%4.16I 24.04%NM 23.22%EV -2.85%E -0.685%K -0.902%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-06 12:25
Unibet (NL)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.84%EV -1.59%E -0.408%K -0.549%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 51.53%EV -3.34%E -1.78%K -3.80%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.63%EV -4.25%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-06 12:14
NordicBet🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -1.59%E -0.408%K -0.549%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.15%EV -4.88%E -2.64%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.58%EV -10.09%E -2.62%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-06 12:25
ATG (SE)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.87%EV -2.85%E -0.741%K -1.00%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.20%EV -3.86%E -2.06%K -4.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.93%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-06 12:15
Svenska Spel🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.87%EV -2.85%E -0.741%K -1.00%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.20%EV -3.86%E -2.06%K -4.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.93%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-06 12:15
Marathon Bet🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.24%EV -2.85%E -0.741%K -1.00%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.84%EV -7.46%E -4.14%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.93%EV -8.92%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-06 12:25
BetOnline.ag🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.26%EV -4.11%E -1.08%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.89%EV -4.88%E -2.64%K -5.75%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.85%EV -1.92%E -0.457%K -0.599%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-06 12:19
LowVig.ag🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.26%EV -4.11%E -1.08%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.89%EV -4.88%E -2.64%K -5.75%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.85%EV -1.92%E -0.457%K -0.599%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-06 12:15
BetUS🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.26%EV -4.11%E -1.08%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.89%EV -4.88%E -2.64%K -5.75%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.85%EV -1.92%E -0.457%K -0.599%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-06 12:15
BetAnything🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.26%EV -4.11%E -1.08%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.89%EV -4.88%E -2.64%K -5.75%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.85%EV -1.92%E -0.457%K -0.599%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-06 12:15
Bet Victor🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.12%EV -4.11%E -1.08%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.16%EV -5.91%E -3.23%K -7.12%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.73%EV -1.92%E -0.457%K -0.599%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-06 12:25
betano_uk🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.12%EV -4.11%E -1.08%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.16%EV -5.91%E -3.23%K -7.12%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.73%EV -1.92%E -0.457%K -0.599%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-06 12:25
Grosvenor🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -4.11%E -1.08%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.15%EV -4.88%E -2.64%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.95%EV -7.76%E -1.96%K -2.63%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-06 12:14
Bovada🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -4.11%E -1.08%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.85%EV -6.94%E -3.83%K -8.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-06 12:19
Betway🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -4.11%E -1.08%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.98%EV -7.46%E -4.14%K -9.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-06 12:20
Tipico (DE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -4.11%E -1.08%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.98%EV -7.46%E -4.14%K -9.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-06 12:25
Coolbet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.51%EV -5.38%E -1.43%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.71%EV -4.88%E -2.64%K -5.75%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.78%EV -1.92%E -0.457%K -0.599%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-06 12:25
Coral🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.37%EV -5.38%E -1.43%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.98%EV -5.91%E -3.23%K -7.12%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -1.92%E -0.457%K -0.599%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-06 12:25
BetMGM🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -5.38%E -1.43%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.13%EV -4.88%E -2.64%K -5.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-06 12:25
DraftKings🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -5.38%E -1.43%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.40%EV -5.91%E -3.23%K -7.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 12:25
888sport🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -5.38%E -1.43%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.19%EV -7.46%E -4.14%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -11.26%E -2.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-06 12:25
William Hill🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -5.38%E -1.43%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.19%EV -7.46%E -4.14%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -11.26%E -2.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-06 12:25
888sport (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -5.38%E -1.43%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.19%EV -7.46%E -4.14%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -11.26%E -2.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-06 12:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -5.38%E -1.43%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.19%EV -7.46%E -4.14%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -11.26%E -2.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-06 12:25
Betsson🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.59%EV -6.64%E -1.79%K -2.46%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.83%EV -2.31%E -1.22%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.59%EV -10.09%E -2.62%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-06 12:25
Unibet (UK)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -6.64%E -1.79%K -2.46%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.96%EV -4.88%E -2.64%K -5.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-06 12:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -6.64%E -1.79%K -2.46%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.23%EV -5.91%E -3.23%K -7.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 12:25
Casumo🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -6.64%E -1.79%K -2.46%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -5.91%E -3.23%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -8.92%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-06 12:14
Unibet (SE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -6.64%E -1.79%K -2.46%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -5.91%E -3.23%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -8.92%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-06 12:15
betPARX🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -6.64%E -1.79%K -2.46%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -5.91%E -3.23%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -8.92%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-06 12:15
FanDuel🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -6.64%E -1.79%K -2.46%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.64%EV -7.46%E -4.14%K -9.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-06 12:14
Betclic (FR)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.58%EV -6.64%E -1.79%K -2.46%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.97%EV -10.03%E -5.73%K -13.37%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 23.44%EV -9.39%E -2.42%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-06 12:19
Codere (IT)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.89%EV -7.90%E -2.16%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.07%EV -4.88%E -2.64%K -5.75%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.04%EV -4.25%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-06 12:20
Unibet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.21%EV -7.90%E -2.16%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.57%EV -6.43%E -3.53%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -11.26%E -2.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-06 12:14
Fanatics🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.29%EV -9.16%E -2.54%K -3.52%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.62%EV -3.86%E -2.06%K -4.43%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%EV -4.25%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-06 12:14
Betr (AU)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -9.16%E -2.54%K -3.52%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.89%EV -4.88%E -2.64%K -5.75%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -4.25%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-06 12:25
SportsBet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -9.16%E -2.54%K -3.52%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 50.73%EV -5.40%E -2.93%K -6.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-06 12:14
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -9.16%E -2.54%K -3.52%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.87%EV -5.91%E -3.23%K -7.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-06 12:25
PlayUp🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -9.16%E -2.54%K -3.52%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.41%EV -5.91%E -3.23%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.96%EV -10.09%E -2.62%K -3.54%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-06 12:25
BetRivers🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.32%EV -9.16%E -2.54%K -3.52%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 50.37%EV -6.94%E -3.83%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.31%EV -12.43%E -3.31%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-06 12:14
PMU (FR)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -9.16%E -2.54%K -3.52%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.51%EV -7.46%E -4.14%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -12.43%E -3.31%K -4.52%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-06 12:15
TABtouch🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -9.16%E -2.54%K -3.52%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.51%EV -7.46%E -4.14%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -12.43%E -3.31%K -4.52%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-06 12:15
Virgin Bet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.29%EV -10.42%E -2.94%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 50.44%EV -8.48%E -4.77%K -10.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.27%EV -13.59%E -3.67%K -5.03%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-06 12:14
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.29%EV -10.42%E -2.94%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 50.44%EV -8.48%E -4.77%K -10.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.27%EV -13.59%E -3.67%K -5.03%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-06 12:14
LiveScore Bet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.29%EV -10.42%E -2.94%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 50.44%EV -8.48%E -4.77%K -10.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.27%EV -13.59%E -3.67%K -5.03%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-06 12:14
NetBet (FR)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.23%EV -10.42%E -2.94%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.19%EV -10.03%E -5.73%K -13.37%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.57%EV -11.26%E -2.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-06 12:25
Unibet (FR)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.16%EV -10.42%E -2.94%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 51.93%EV -11.57%E -6.73%K -16.07%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -8.92%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-06 12:20
betfred_uk🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -11.68%E -3.34%K -4.67%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.91%EV -7.46%E -4.14%K -9.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-06 12:25
Bet Right🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -11.68%E -3.34%K -4.67%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 50.62%EV -6.94%E -3.83%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.20%EV -7.76%E -1.96%K -2.63%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-06 12:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.03%EV -11.68%E -3.34%K -4.67%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.61%EV -7.46%E -4.14%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.36%EV -8.92%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-06 12:20
Paddy Power🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -11.68%E -3.34%K -4.67%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.30%EV -7.46%E -4.14%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.83%EV -11.26%E -2.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-06 12:14
Winamax (DE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.53%EV -12.95%E -3.75%K -5.28%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.29%EV -6.43%E -3.53%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.17%EV -7.76%E -1.96%K -2.63%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-06 12:19
Winamax (FR)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -14.21%E -4.18%K -5.92%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.23%EV -7.46%E -4.14%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.18%EV -8.92%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-06 12:19
Sky Bet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -14.21%E -4.18%K -5.92%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -7.46%E -4.14%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -12.43%E -3.31%K -4.52%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-06 12:14
BoyleSports🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.55%EV -16.73%E -5.07%K -7.27%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 51.54%EV -12.60%E -7.41%K -17.99%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.91%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-06 12:25
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook◎3.95I 25.32%NM 25.22%1.91I 52.36%NM 52.15%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.64%0.4%2026-09-06 12:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.95I 25.32%NM 25.15%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.74%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.10%0.7%2026-09-06 12:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.95I 25.32%NM 25.15%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.74%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.10%0.7%2026-09-06 12:25
Kalshi◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.78%1.89I 52.91%NM 52.44%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.78%0.9%2026-09-06 12:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.95I 25.32%NM 25.08%1.91I 52.36%NM 51.87%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.04%0.9%2026-09-06 12:25
Smarkets◎3.90I 25.64%NM 25.12%1.88I 53.19%NM 52.10%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.78%2.1%2026-09-06 12:25