Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Heerenveen v AZ Alkmaar

Inicio: 2026-09-06 12:30 UTC

Final: Heerenveen 2–3 AZ Alkmaar

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Heerenveen (Local)

Predicción 25.23%3.96momio equitativo
EV +5.73%
Ventaja +1.37%
Kelly +1.80%
Crecimiento +0.103%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.19

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.10%25.30%25.23%26.59%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.303.693.704.1930.30%27.12%27.03%23.87%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

AZ Alkmaar (Visitante)

Predicción 51.41%1.95momio equitativo
EV -2.31%
Ventaja -1.22%
Kelly -2.57%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
49.77%51.32%51.39%53.18%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.701.821.831.9058.82%54.97%54.79%52.63%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 23.35%4.28momio equitativo
EV -1.92%
Ventaja -0.457%
Kelly -0.599%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.91%23.38%23.39%24.59%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.703.963.984.2027.03%25.28%25.16%23.81%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Heerenveen (Local): 25.23%; AZ Alkmaar (Visitante): 51.41%; Empate: 23.35%. Para Heerenveen (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.96. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.19, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +5.73%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯4.19I 23.87%NM 23.10%EV +5.73%E +1.37%K +1.80%G +0.103%1.82I 54.95%NM 53.18%EV -6.43%E -3.53%K -7.84%G +0.000%4.08I 24.51%NM 23.72%EV -4.72%E -1.16%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-06 12:25
Pinnacle🎯3.93I 25.45%NM 24.58%EV -0.834%E -0.212%K -0.285%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.21%EV -4.88%E -2.64%K -5.75%G +0.000%4.16I 24.04%NM 23.22%EV -2.85%E -0.685%K -0.902%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-06 12:25
Unibet (NL)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.84%EV -1.59%E -0.408%K -0.549%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 51.53%EV -3.34%E -1.78%K -3.80%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.63%EV -4.25%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-06 12:14
NordicBet🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -1.59%E -0.408%K -0.549%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.15%EV -4.88%E -2.64%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.58%EV -10.09%E -2.62%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-06 12:25
ATG (SE)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.87%EV -2.85%E -0.741%K -1.00%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.20%EV -3.86%E -2.06%K -4.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.93%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-06 12:15
Svenska Spel🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.87%EV -2.85%E -0.741%K -1.00%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.20%EV -3.86%E -2.06%K -4.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.93%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-06 12:15
Marathon Bet🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.24%EV -2.85%E -0.741%K -1.00%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.84%EV -7.46%E -4.14%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.93%EV -8.92%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-06 12:25
BetOnline.ag🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.26%EV -4.11%E -1.08%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.89%EV -4.88%E -2.64%K -5.75%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.85%EV -1.92%E -0.457%K -0.599%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-06 12:19
LowVig.ag🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.26%EV -4.11%E -1.08%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.89%EV -4.88%E -2.64%K -5.75%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.85%EV -1.92%E -0.457%K -0.599%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-06 12:15
BetUS🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.26%EV -4.11%E -1.08%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.89%EV -4.88%E -2.64%K -5.75%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.85%EV -1.92%E -0.457%K -0.599%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-06 12:15
BetAnything🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.26%EV -4.11%E -1.08%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.89%EV -4.88%E -2.64%K -5.75%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.85%EV -1.92%E -0.457%K -0.599%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-06 12:15
Bet Victor🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.12%EV -4.11%E -1.08%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.16%EV -5.91%E -3.23%K -7.12%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.73%EV -1.92%E -0.457%K -0.599%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-06 12:25
betano_uk🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.12%EV -4.11%E -1.08%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.16%EV -5.91%E -3.23%K -7.12%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.73%EV -1.92%E -0.457%K -0.599%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-06 12:25
Grosvenor🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -4.11%E -1.08%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.15%EV -4.88%E -2.64%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.95%EV -7.76%E -1.96%K -2.63%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-06 12:14
Bovada🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -4.11%E -1.08%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.85%EV -6.94%E -3.83%K -8.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-06 12:19
Betway🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -4.11%E -1.08%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.98%EV -7.46%E -4.14%K -9.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-06 12:20
Tipico (DE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -4.11%E -1.08%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.98%EV -7.46%E -4.14%K -9.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-06 12:25
Coolbet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.51%EV -5.38%E -1.43%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.71%EV -4.88%E -2.64%K -5.75%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.78%EV -1.92%E -0.457%K -0.599%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-06 12:25
Coral🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.37%EV -5.38%E -1.43%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.98%EV -5.91%E -3.23%K -7.12%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -1.92%E -0.457%K -0.599%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-06 12:25
BetMGM🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -5.38%E -1.43%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.13%EV -4.88%E -2.64%K -5.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-06 12:25
DraftKings🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -5.38%E -1.43%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.40%EV -5.91%E -3.23%K -7.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 12:25
888sport🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -5.38%E -1.43%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.19%EV -7.46%E -4.14%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -11.26%E -2.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-06 12:25
William Hill🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -5.38%E -1.43%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.19%EV -7.46%E -4.14%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -11.26%E -2.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-06 12:25
888sport (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -5.38%E -1.43%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.19%EV -7.46%E -4.14%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -11.26%E -2.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-06 12:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -5.38%E -1.43%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.19%EV -7.46%E -4.14%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.25%EV -11.26%E -2.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-06 12:25
Betsson🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.59%EV -6.64%E -1.79%K -2.46%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.83%EV -2.31%E -1.22%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.59%EV -10.09%E -2.62%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-06 12:25
Unibet (UK)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -6.64%E -1.79%K -2.46%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.96%EV -4.88%E -2.64%K -5.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-06 12:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -6.64%E -1.79%K -2.46%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.23%EV -5.91%E -3.23%K -7.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 12:25
Casumo🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -6.64%E -1.79%K -2.46%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -5.91%E -3.23%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -8.92%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-06 12:14
Unibet (SE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -6.64%E -1.79%K -2.46%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -5.91%E -3.23%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -8.92%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-06 12:15
betPARX🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -6.64%E -1.79%K -2.46%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -5.91%E -3.23%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -8.92%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-06 12:15
FanDuel🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -6.64%E -1.79%K -2.46%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.64%EV -7.46%E -4.14%K -9.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-06 12:14
Betclic (FR)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.58%EV -6.64%E -1.79%K -2.46%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.97%EV -10.03%E -5.73%K -13.37%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 23.44%EV -9.39%E -2.42%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-06 12:19
Codere (IT)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.89%EV -7.90%E -2.16%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.07%EV -4.88%E -2.64%K -5.75%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.04%EV -4.25%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-06 12:20
Unibet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.21%EV -7.90%E -2.16%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.57%EV -6.43%E -3.53%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -11.26%E -2.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-06 12:14
Fanatics🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.29%EV -9.16%E -2.54%K -3.52%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.62%EV -3.86%E -2.06%K -4.43%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%EV -4.25%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-06 12:14
Betr (AU)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -9.16%E -2.54%K -3.52%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.89%EV -4.88%E -2.64%K -5.75%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -4.25%E -1.04%K -1.37%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-06 12:25
SportsBet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -9.16%E -2.54%K -3.52%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 50.73%EV -5.40%E -2.93%K -6.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-06 12:14
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -9.16%E -2.54%K -3.52%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.87%EV -5.91%E -3.23%K -7.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-06 12:25
PlayUp🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -9.16%E -2.54%K -3.52%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.41%EV -5.91%E -3.23%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.96%EV -10.09%E -2.62%K -3.54%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-06 12:25
BetRivers🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.32%EV -9.16%E -2.54%K -3.52%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 50.37%EV -6.94%E -3.83%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.31%EV -12.43%E -3.31%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-06 12:14
PMU (FR)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -9.16%E -2.54%K -3.52%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.51%EV -7.46%E -4.14%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -12.43%E -3.31%K -4.52%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-06 12:15
TABtouch🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -9.16%E -2.54%K -3.52%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.51%EV -7.46%E -4.14%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -12.43%E -3.31%K -4.52%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-06 12:15
Virgin Bet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.29%EV -10.42%E -2.94%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 50.44%EV -8.48%E -4.77%K -10.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.27%EV -13.59%E -3.67%K -5.03%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-06 12:14
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.29%EV -10.42%E -2.94%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 50.44%EV -8.48%E -4.77%K -10.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.27%EV -13.59%E -3.67%K -5.03%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-06 12:14
LiveScore Bet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.29%EV -10.42%E -2.94%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 50.44%EV -8.48%E -4.77%K -10.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.27%EV -13.59%E -3.67%K -5.03%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-06 12:14
NetBet (FR)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.23%EV -10.42%E -2.94%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.19%EV -10.03%E -5.73%K -13.37%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.57%EV -11.26%E -2.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-06 12:25
Unibet (FR)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.16%EV -10.42%E -2.94%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 51.93%EV -11.57%E -6.73%K -16.07%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.90%EV -8.92%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-06 12:20
betfred_uk🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -11.68%E -3.34%K -4.67%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.91%EV -7.46%E -4.14%K -9.32%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-06 12:25
Bet Right🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -11.68%E -3.34%K -4.67%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 50.62%EV -6.94%E -3.83%K -8.57%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.20%EV -7.76%E -1.96%K -2.63%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-06 12:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.03%EV -11.68%E -3.34%K -4.67%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.61%EV -7.46%E -4.14%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.36%EV -8.92%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-06 12:20
Paddy Power🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -11.68%E -3.34%K -4.67%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.30%EV -7.46%E -4.14%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.83%EV -11.26%E -2.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-06 12:14
Winamax (DE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.53%EV -12.95%E -3.75%K -5.28%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.29%EV -6.43%E -3.53%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.17%EV -7.76%E -1.96%K -2.63%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-06 12:19
Winamax (FR)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -14.21%E -4.18%K -5.92%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.23%EV -7.46%E -4.14%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.18%EV -8.92%E -2.29%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-06 12:19
Sky Bet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -14.21%E -4.18%K -5.92%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -7.46%E -4.14%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -12.43%E -3.31%K -4.52%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-06 12:14
BoyleSports🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.55%EV -16.73%E -5.07%K -7.27%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 51.54%EV -12.60%E -7.41%K -17.99%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.91%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-06 12:25
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎3.95I 25.32%NM 25.22%1.91I 52.36%NM 52.15%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.64%0.4%2026-09-06 12:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.95I 25.32%NM 25.15%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.74%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.10%0.7%2026-09-06 12:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.95I 25.32%NM 25.15%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.74%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.10%0.7%2026-09-06 12:25
Kalshi◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.78%1.89I 52.91%NM 52.44%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.78%0.9%2026-09-06 12:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.95I 25.32%NM 25.08%1.91I 52.36%NM 51.87%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.04%0.9%2026-09-06 12:25
Smarkets◎3.90I 25.64%NM 25.12%1.88I 53.19%NM 52.10%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.78%2.1%2026-09-06 12:25