Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.57
assuming max odds 6.40
assuming max odds 4.75
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Groningen (Local): 63.03%; Fortuna Sittard (Visit): 16.25%; Draw: 20.72%. For Fortuna Sittard (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.15. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.02%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betsson🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.48%EV -6.08%E -4.08%K -12.41%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.78%EV +4.02%E +0.628%K +0.744%G +0.030% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.74%EV -9.89%E -2.27%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-28 17:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.48%EV -6.08%E -4.08%K -12.41%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.78%EV +4.02%E +0.628%K +0.744%G +0.030% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.74%EV -9.89%E -2.27%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-28 17:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.05%EV -3.56%E -2.33%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 6.16I 16.23%NM 15.66%EV +0.119%E +0.019%K +0.023%G +0.000% | 4.53I 22.08%NM 21.29%EV -6.16%E -1.36%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-28 17:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.58%EV -3.56%E -2.33%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.95%EV -0.856%E -0.140%K -0.168%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.48%EV -1.60%E -0.337%K -0.427%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-08-28 17:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.58%EV -3.56%E -2.33%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.95%EV -0.856%E -0.140%K -0.168%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.48%EV -1.60%E -0.337%K -0.427%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-08-28 17:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.88%EV -4.82%E -3.19%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.81%EV -0.856%E -0.140%K -0.168%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.31%EV -1.60%E -0.337%K -0.427%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-28 17:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.41%EV -3.56%E -2.33%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.17%EV -2.48%E -0.414%K -0.496%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.42%EV -1.60%E -0.337%K -0.427%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-08-28 15:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.56%EV -4.19%E -2.76%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.10%EV -2.48%E -0.414%K -0.496%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.34%EV -1.60%E -0.337%K -0.427%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-28 15:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.56%EV -4.19%E -2.76%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.10%EV -2.48%E -0.414%K -0.496%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.34%EV -1.60%E -0.337%K -0.427%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-28 15:30 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.56%EV -4.19%E -2.76%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.10%EV -2.48%E -0.414%K -0.496%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.34%EV -1.60%E -0.337%K -0.427%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-28 15:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.00%EV -4.19%E -2.76%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.96%EV -2.48%E -0.414%K -0.496%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.04%EV -5.75%E -1.26%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-28 16:44 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.45%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.86%EV -2.48%E -0.414%K -0.496%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -4.71%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-28 17:34 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.45%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.86%EV -2.48%E -0.414%K -0.496%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -4.71%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-28 17:34 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.17%EV -6.71%E -4.54%K -13.99%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.83%EV -2.48%E -0.414%K -0.496%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.00%EV -1.60%E -0.337%K -0.427%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-28 17:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.16%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.79%EV -2.48%E -0.414%K -0.496%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -6.78%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-28 17:35 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.76%EV -6.71%E -4.54%K -13.99%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -2.48%E -0.414%K -0.496%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -4.71%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-28 15:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.76%EV -6.71%E -4.54%K -13.99%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -2.48%E -0.414%K -0.496%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -4.71%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-28 09:15 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.59%EV -9.23%E -6.41%K -20.99%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.26%EV -2.48%E -0.414%K -0.496%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.15%EV -10.30%E -2.38%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-28 16:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.10%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.32%EV -5.73%E -0.988%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.58%EV -4.71%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-28 17:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.57%EV -7.34%E -5.00%K -15.62%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.11%EV -5.73%E -0.988%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.32%EV -4.71%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-28 15:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.83%EV -6.71%E -4.54%K -13.99%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.03%EV -5.73%E -0.988%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -8.85%E -2.01%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-28 17:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.01%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.44%EV -6.54%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -4.71%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-28 17:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.01%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.44%EV -6.54%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -4.71%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-28 09:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.01%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.44%EV -6.54%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -4.71%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-28 09:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.43%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.29%EV -6.54%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%EV -8.85%E -2.01%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-28 17:43 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.20%EV -7.34%E -5.00%K -15.62%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.16%EV -6.54%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.64%EV -6.78%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-28 15:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.44%EV -6.71%E -4.54%K -13.99%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.07%EV -6.54%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.49%EV -10.92%E -2.54%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-28 17:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.22%EV -8.60%E -5.93%K -19.12%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.94%EV -6.54%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.83%EV -8.85%E -2.01%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-28 16:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.50%EV -6.08%E -4.08%K -12.41%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.34%EV -7.36%E -1.29%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.16%EV -8.85%E -2.01%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-28 17:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.87%EV -1.04%E -0.663%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 5.65I 17.70%NM 17.19%EV -8.17%E -1.45%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.64I 21.55%NM 20.94%EV -3.88%E -0.837%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-28 17:55 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.74%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.80%EV -8.98%E -1.60%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV -4.71%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-28 17:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.05%EV -6.71%E -4.54%K -13.99%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.66%EV -8.98%E -1.60%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.29%EV -4.71%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-28 17:49 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.61%EV -6.08%E -4.08%K -12.41%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.66%EV -8.98%E -1.60%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -6.78%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-28 17:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.61%EV -6.08%E -4.08%K -12.41%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.66%EV -8.98%E -1.60%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -6.78%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-28 17:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.61%EV -6.08%E -4.08%K -12.41%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.66%EV -8.98%E -1.60%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -6.78%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-28 17:49 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.26%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -10.61%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -6.78%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-28 17:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.13%EV -6.08%E -4.08%K -12.41%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.83%EV -10.61%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.04%EV -8.85%E -2.01%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-28 17:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.61%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -13.00%E -3.09%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-28 17:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.61%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -13.00%E -3.09%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-28 17:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.61%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -13.00%E -3.09%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-28 17:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.61%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -13.00%E -3.09%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-28 17:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.22%EV -9.23%E -6.41%K -20.99%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -10.61%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV -6.78%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-28 17:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.32%EV -9.23%E -6.41%K -20.99%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.32%EV -10.61%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.37%EV -13.00%E -3.09%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-08-28 17:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.32%EV -9.23%E -6.41%K -20.99%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.32%EV -10.61%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.37%EV -13.00%E -3.09%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-08-28 17:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.32%EV -9.23%E -6.41%K -20.99%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.32%EV -10.61%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.37%EV -13.00%E -3.09%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-08-28 17:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.11%EV -7.34%E -5.00%K -15.62%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.91%EV -12.23%E -2.27%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.99%EV -9.89%E -2.27%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-28 17:40 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 62.90%EV -9.86%E -6.90%K -22.94%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.66%EV -12.23%E -2.27%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.44%EV -8.85%E -2.01%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-08-28 17:35 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 62.60%EV -9.86%E -6.90%K -22.94%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.58%EV -12.23%E -2.27%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.82%EV -10.92%E -2.54%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-28 17:35 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 61.76%EV -7.34%E -5.00%K -15.62%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.13%EV -13.86%E -2.61%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.11%EV -10.92%E -2.54%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-28 17:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 61.76%EV -7.34%E -5.00%K -15.62%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.13%EV -13.86%E -2.61%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.11%EV -10.92%E -2.54%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-28 17:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 61.93%EV -8.60%E -5.93%K -19.12%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 16.94%EV -13.86%E -2.61%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.13%EV -11.96%E -2.81%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-08-28 17:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 61.93%EV -8.60%E -5.93%K -19.12%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 16.94%EV -13.86%E -2.61%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.13%EV -11.96%E -2.81%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-08-28 17:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.09%EV -9.23%E -6.41%K -20.99%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 16.87%EV -13.86%E -2.61%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.04%EV -11.96%E -2.81%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-28 17:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 62.57%EV -7.97%E -5.46%K -17.33%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.57%EV -15.48%E -2.98%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.86%EV -4.71%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-28 17:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.91%EV -9.23%E -6.41%K -20.99%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.83%EV -18.73%E -3.75%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -8.85%E -2.01%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-28 17:05 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.68%EV -9.23%E -6.41%K -20.99%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.48%EV -18.73%E -3.75%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.84%EV -17.14%E -4.28%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-08-28 17:45 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.33% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.85% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.81% | 0.9% | 2026-08-28 14:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.47% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.47% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.07% | 1.0% | 2026-08-28 17:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.00% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.95% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.05% | 1.1% | 2026-08-28 17:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.00% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.95% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.05% | 1.1% | 2026-08-28 17:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.00% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.95% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.05% | 1.1% | 2026-08-28 17:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.15% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.89% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.96% | 1.5% | 2026-08-28 17:35 |