Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Groningen v Fortuna Sittard

Início: 2026-08-28 18:00 UTC

Final: Groningen 2–3 Fortuna Sittard

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

56 casas de apostas (21 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Groningen (Local)

Previsão 63.03%1.59odd justa
EV -1.04%
Vantagem -0.663%
Kelly -1.82%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.57

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
60.68%62.94%63.11%64.17%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.431.481.491.5769.93%67.36%67.11%63.69%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Fortuna Sittard (Visitante)

Previsão 16.25%6.15odd justa
EV +4.02%
Vantagem +0.628%
Kelly +0.744%
Crescimento +0.030%

pressupondo odds máximas de 6.40

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
14.78%16.28%16.17%17.83%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
5.005.705.726.4020.00%17.55%17.47%15.63%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 20.72%4.83odd justa
EV -1.60%
Vantagem -0.337%
Kelly -0.427%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.75

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
19.86%20.78%20.71%21.91%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
4.004.464.504.7525.00%22.40%22.22%21.05%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Groningen (Local): 63.03%; Fortuna Sittard (Visitante): 16.25%; Empate: 20.72%. Para Fortuna Sittard (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 6.15. 3 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 6.40, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +4.02%.

Odds das casas de apostas (56 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
Betsson🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.48%EV -6.08%E -4.08%K -12.41%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.78%EV +4.02%E +0.628%K +0.744%G +0.030%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.74%EV -9.89%E -2.27%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-28 17:45
NordicBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.48%EV -6.08%E -4.08%K -12.41%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.78%EV +4.02%E +0.628%K +0.744%G +0.030%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.74%EV -9.89%E -2.27%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-28 17:50
Pinnacle🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 63.05%EV -3.56%E -2.33%K -6.72%G +0.000%6.16I 16.23%NM 15.66%EV +0.119%E +0.019%K +0.023%G +0.000%4.53I 22.08%NM 21.29%EV -6.16%E -1.36%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-28 17:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 63.58%EV -3.56%E -2.33%K -6.72%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.95%EV -0.856%E -0.140%K -0.168%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.48%EV -1.60%E -0.337%K -0.427%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-28 17:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 63.58%EV -3.56%E -2.33%K -6.72%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.95%EV -0.856%E -0.140%K -0.168%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.48%EV -1.60%E -0.337%K -0.427%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-28 17:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.88%EV -4.82%E -3.19%K -9.46%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.81%EV -0.856%E -0.140%K -0.168%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.31%EV -1.60%E -0.337%K -0.427%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-28 17:50
BetUS🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 63.41%EV -3.56%E -2.33%K -6.72%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.17%EV -2.48%E -0.414%K -0.496%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.42%EV -1.60%E -0.337%K -0.427%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-28 15:30
LowVig.ag🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.56%EV -4.19%E -2.76%K -8.06%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.10%EV -2.48%E -0.414%K -0.496%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.34%EV -1.60%E -0.337%K -0.427%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-28 15:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.56%EV -4.19%E -2.76%K -8.06%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.10%EV -2.48%E -0.414%K -0.496%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.34%EV -1.60%E -0.337%K -0.427%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-28 15:30
BetAnything🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.56%EV -4.19%E -2.76%K -8.06%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.10%EV -2.48%E -0.414%K -0.496%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.34%EV -1.60%E -0.337%K -0.427%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-28 15:30
Coolbet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.00%EV -4.19%E -2.76%K -8.06%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.96%EV -2.48%E -0.414%K -0.496%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.04%EV -5.75%E -1.26%K -1.62%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-28 16:44
betano_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.45%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.90%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.86%EV -2.48%E -0.414%K -0.496%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -4.71%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-28 17:34
Bet Victor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.45%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.90%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.86%EV -2.48%E -0.414%K -0.496%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -4.71%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-28 17:34
Fanatics🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.17%EV -6.71%E -4.54%K -13.99%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.83%EV -2.48%E -0.414%K -0.496%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.00%EV -1.60%E -0.337%K -0.427%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-28 17:20
DraftKings🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.16%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.90%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.79%EV -2.48%E -0.414%K -0.496%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -6.78%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-28 17:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.76%EV -6.71%E -4.54%K -13.99%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -2.48%E -0.414%K -0.496%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -4.71%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-28 15:05
BetMGM🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.76%EV -6.71%E -4.54%K -13.99%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -2.48%E -0.414%K -0.496%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -4.71%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-28 09:15
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.59%EV -9.23%E -6.41%K -20.99%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.26%EV -2.48%E -0.414%K -0.496%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.15%EV -10.30%E -2.38%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-28 16:05
Grosvenor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.10%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.90%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.32%EV -5.73%E -0.988%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.58%EV -4.71%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-28 17:45
Tipico (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.57%EV -7.34%E -5.00%K -15.62%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.11%EV -5.73%E -0.988%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.32%EV -4.71%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-28 15:00
FanDuel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.83%EV -6.71%E -4.54%K -13.99%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.03%EV -5.73%E -0.988%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -8.85%E -2.01%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-28 17:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.01%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.90%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.44%EV -6.54%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -4.71%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-28 17:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.01%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.90%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.44%EV -6.54%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -4.71%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-28 09:15
Coral🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.01%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.90%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.44%EV -6.54%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -4.71%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-28 09:15
Bovada🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.43%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.90%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.29%EV -6.54%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%EV -8.85%E -2.01%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-28 17:43
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.20%EV -7.34%E -5.00%K -15.62%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.16%EV -6.54%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.64%EV -6.78%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-28 15:05
PlayUp🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.44%EV -6.71%E -4.54%K -13.99%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.07%EV -6.54%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.49%EV -10.92%E -2.54%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-28 17:10
Bet Right🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.22%EV -8.60%E -5.93%K -19.12%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.94%EV -6.54%E -1.14%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.83%EV -8.85%E -2.01%K -2.60%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-28 16:05
SportsBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.50%EV -6.08%E -4.08%K -12.41%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.34%EV -7.36%E -1.29%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.16%EV -8.85%E -2.01%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-28 17:45
1xBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.87%EV -1.04%E -0.663%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.65I 17.70%NM 17.19%EV -8.17%E -1.45%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.64I 21.55%NM 20.94%EV -3.88%E -0.837%K -1.07%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-28 17:55
Codere (IT)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.74%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.90%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.80%EV -8.98%E -1.60%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.46%EV -4.71%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-28 17:10
Marathon Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.05%EV -6.71%E -4.54%K -13.99%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.66%EV -8.98%E -1.60%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.29%EV -4.71%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-28 17:49
Casumo🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.61%EV -6.08%E -4.08%K -12.41%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.66%EV -8.98%E -1.60%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -6.78%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-28 17:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.61%EV -6.08%E -4.08%K -12.41%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.66%EV -8.98%E -1.60%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -6.78%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-28 17:50
betPARX🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.61%EV -6.08%E -4.08%K -12.41%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.66%EV -8.98%E -1.60%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -6.78%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-28 17:49
Betway🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.26%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.90%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -10.61%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -6.78%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-28 17:55
Unibet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.13%EV -6.08%E -4.08%K -12.41%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.83%EV -10.61%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.04%EV -8.85%E -2.01%K -2.60%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-28 17:50
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.90%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.61%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -13.00%E -3.09%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-28 17:35
William Hill🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.90%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.61%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -13.00%E -3.09%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-28 17:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.90%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.61%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -13.00%E -3.09%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-28 17:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -5.45%E -3.63%K -10.90%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -10.61%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -13.00%E -3.09%K -4.06%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-28 17:30
Betclic (FR)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.22%EV -9.23%E -6.41%K -20.99%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -10.61%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV -6.78%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-28 17:45
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.32%EV -9.23%E -6.41%K -20.99%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.32%EV -10.61%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.37%EV -13.00%E -3.09%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-28 17:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.32%EV -9.23%E -6.41%K -20.99%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.32%EV -10.61%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.37%EV -13.00%E -3.09%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-28 17:55
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.32%EV -9.23%E -6.41%K -20.99%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.32%EV -10.61%E -1.93%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.37%EV -13.00%E -3.09%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-28 17:50
BetRivers🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.11%EV -7.34%E -5.00%K -15.62%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.91%EV -12.23%E -2.27%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.99%EV -9.89%E -2.27%K -2.95%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-28 17:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.90%EV -9.86%E -6.90%K -22.94%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.66%EV -12.23%E -2.27%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.44%EV -8.85%E -2.01%K -2.60%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-28 17:35
NetBet (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.60%EV -9.86%E -6.90%K -22.94%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.58%EV -12.23%E -2.27%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.82%EV -10.92%E -2.54%K -3.31%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-28 17:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.76%EV -7.34%E -5.00%K -15.62%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.13%EV -13.86%E -2.61%K -3.22%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.11%EV -10.92%E -2.54%K -3.31%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-28 17:50
TABtouch🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.76%EV -7.34%E -5.00%K -15.62%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.13%EV -13.86%E -2.61%K -3.22%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.11%EV -10.92%E -2.54%K -3.31%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-28 17:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 61.93%EV -8.60%E -5.93%K -19.12%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.94%EV -13.86%E -2.61%K -3.22%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.13%EV -11.96%E -2.81%K -3.68%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-28 17:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 61.93%EV -8.60%E -5.93%K -19.12%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.94%EV -13.86%E -2.61%K -3.22%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.13%EV -11.96%E -2.81%K -3.68%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-28 17:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.09%EV -9.23%E -6.41%K -20.99%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.87%EV -13.86%E -2.61%K -3.22%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.04%EV -11.96%E -2.81%K -3.68%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-28 17:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 62.57%EV -7.97%E -5.46%K -17.33%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.57%EV -15.48%E -2.98%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.86%EV -4.71%E -1.02%K -1.31%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-28 17:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.91%EV -9.23%E -6.41%K -20.99%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.83%EV -18.73%E -3.75%K -4.68%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -8.85%E -2.01%K -2.60%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-28 17:05
Sky Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.68%EV -9.23%E -6.41%K -20.99%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.48%EV -18.73%E -3.75%K -4.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.84%EV -17.14%E -4.28%K -5.71%G +0.000%14.4%2026-08-28 17:45
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Kalshi◎1.54I 64.94%NM 64.33%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.85%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.81%0.9%2026-08-28 14:55
Matchbook◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.47%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.47%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.07%1.0%2026-08-28 17:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.57I 63.69%NM 63.00%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.95%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.05%1.1%2026-08-28 17:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.57I 63.69%NM 63.00%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.95%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.05%1.1%2026-08-28 17:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.57I 63.69%NM 63.00%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.95%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.05%1.1%2026-08-28 17:50
Smarkets◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.15%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.89%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.96%1.5%2026-08-28 17:35