The School of Odds

Go Ahead Eagles v Willem II

2026-08-08 16:45 — Dutch Eredivisie

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (2 in analysis)

Option 1: Go Ahead Eagles (Local)

Odds
1.6261.73%Min
1.7258.19%Mean
1.7357.80%Median
1.7955.87%Max
Consensus probabilities
53.12%1.883Min
54.36%1.840Max
53.53%1.868Mean
53.53%1.868Median
53.53%1.868IQM
53.53%1.868Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.79 under the IQM model: 53.53%

EV -4.18%Edge -2.34%Kelly -5.30%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Willem II (Visit)

Odds
3.8026.32%Min
4.1224.25%Mean
4.2023.81%Median
4.3223.15%Max
Consensus probabilities
22.13%4.519Min
22.64%4.416Max
22.38%4.468Mean
22.38%4.468Median
22.38%4.468IQM
22.37%4.470Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 4.32 under the IQM model: 22.38%

EV -3.32%Edge -0.767%Kelly -0.999%Growth +0.000%

Option 3: Draw

Odds
3.5528.17%Min
3.8625.90%Mean
3.8625.91%Median
4.0025.00%Max
Consensus probabilities
23.51%4.253Min
24.24%4.126Max
24.09%4.151Mean
24.09%4.151Median
24.09%4.151IQM
24.10%4.150Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 4.00 under the IQM model: 24.09%

EV -3.64%Edge -0.909%Kelly -1.21%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

BookmakerGo Ahead Eagles (Local) ▼Willem II (Visit)DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet1.79I 55.87% NM 53.61%EV -4.18% E -2.34% K -5.30% G +0.000%4.32I 23.15% NM 22.21%EV -3.32% E -0.767% K -0.999% G +0.000%3.97I 25.19% NM 24.17%EV -4.36% E -1.10% K -1.47% G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-05 13:55
Betr (AU)1.75I 57.14% NM 53.93%EV -6.33% E -3.61% K -8.43% G +0.000%4.20I 23.81% NM 22.47%EV -6.00% E -1.43% K -1.88% G +0.000%4.00I 25.00% NM 23.60%EV -3.64% E -0.909% K -1.21% G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-05 12:04
Marathon Bet1.74I 57.47% NM 53.62%EV -6.86% E -3.94% K -9.27% G +0.000%4.20I 23.81% NM 22.21%EV -6.00% E -1.43% K -1.88% G +0.000%3.86I 25.91% NM 24.17%EV -7.01% E -1.82% K -2.45% G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-05 13:50
SportsBet1.73I 57.80% NM 54.36%EV -7.40% E -4.28% K -10.13% G +0.000%4.25I 23.53% NM 22.13%EV -4.88% E -1.15% K -1.50% G +0.000%4.00I 25.00% NM 23.51%EV -3.64% E -0.909% K -1.21% G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-05 12:05
Codere (IT)1.73I 57.80% NM 53.44%EV -7.40% E -4.28% K -10.13% G +0.000%4.10I 24.39% NM 22.55%EV -8.24% E -2.01% K -2.66% G +0.000%3.85I 25.97% NM 24.01%EV -7.25% E -1.88% K -2.54% G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-05 12:05
Paddy Power1.67I 59.88% NM 53.85%EV -10.61% E -6.35% K -15.83% G +0.000%4.00I 25.00% NM 22.48%EV -10.48% E -2.62% K -3.49% G +0.000%3.80I 26.32% NM 23.67%EV -8.45% E -2.22% K -3.02% G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-05 12:01
Unibet (FR)1.62I 61.73% NM 53.12%EV -13.28% E -8.20% K -21.43% G +0.000%3.80I 26.32% NM 22.64%EV -14.95% E -3.94% K -5.34% G +0.000%3.55I 28.17% NM 24.24%EV -14.48% E -4.08% K -5.68% G +0.000%16.2%2026-07-05 12:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerGo Ahead Eagles (Local)Willem II (Visit)DrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%1.04I 96.15%1.01I 99.01%191.3%2026-07-05 12:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%1.04I 96.15%1.01I 99.01%191.3%2026-07-05 12:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%1.04I 96.15%1.01I 99.01%191.3%2026-07-05 12:15