La escuela de los momios

Go Ahead Eagles v Willem II

2026-08-08 16:45 UTC — Dutch Eredivisie

Resultado del partido

48 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Go Ahead Eagles (Local)

Predicción 56.79%1.76momio equitativo
EV -4.59%
Ventaja -2.73%
Kelly -6.75%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.68

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
54.32%56.98%56.68%59.56%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.471.631.641.6868.03%61.34%60.98%59.52%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Willem II (Visitante)

Predicción 20.26%4.94momio equitativo
EV +1.29%
Ventaja +0.258%
Kelly +0.323%
Crecimiento +0.004%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.70%20.10%20.35%21.51%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.904.534.605.0025.64%22.07%21.74%20.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 22.95%4.36momio equitativo
EV -1.32%
Ventaja -0.306%
Kelly -0.399%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.74%22.92%22.97%24.60%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.603.953.904.3027.78%25.29%25.64%23.26%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (48 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Tipico (DE)1.57I 63.69%NM 59.56%EV -10.84%E -6.90%K -19.01%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV +1.29%E +0.258%K +0.323%G +0.004%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.74%EV -1.32%E -0.306%K -0.399%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-25 12:19
1xBet1.66I 60.24%NM 57.91%EV -5.73%E -3.45%K -8.67%G +0.000%4.99I 20.04%NM 19.26%EV +1.09%E +0.218%K +0.273%G +0.003%4.21I 23.75%NM 22.83%EV -3.38%E -0.803%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-25 23:18
Pinnacle1.61I 62.11%NM 58.81%EV -8.56%E -5.32%K -14.04%G +0.000%4.98I 20.08%NM 19.01%EV +0.885%E +0.178%K +0.222%G +0.002%4.27I 23.42%NM 22.17%EV -2.00%E -0.469%K -0.613%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-22 12:15
Bovada1.61I 62.11%NM 58.41%EV -8.56%E -5.32%K -14.04%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.19%EV -0.735%E -0.150%K -0.189%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV -3.61%E -0.860%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-22 12:12
Marathon Bet1.61I 62.11%NM 57.98%EV -8.56%E -5.32%K -14.04%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.25%EV -1.75%E -0.360%K -0.454%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77%EV -5.91%E -1.44%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-25 23:10
Bet Victor1.61I 62.11%NM 57.87%EV -8.56%E -5.32%K -14.04%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.41%EV -2.76%E -0.575%K -0.727%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.72%EV -5.91%E -1.44%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-25 09:05
betano_uk1.61I 62.11%NM 57.87%EV -8.56%E -5.32%K -14.04%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.41%EV -2.76%E -0.575%K -0.727%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.72%EV -5.91%E -1.44%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-24 01:03
Fanatics1.67I 59.88%NM 57.47%EV -5.16%E -3.09%K -7.70%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.21%EV -3.77%E -0.795%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.32%EV -1.32%E -0.306%K -0.399%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-22 12:14
Everygame1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -10.84%E -6.90%K -19.01%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.29%EV -3.77%E -0.795%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.35%EV -5.91%E -1.44%K -1.90%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-22 12:14
DraftKings1.61I 62.11%NM 57.63%EV -8.56%E -5.32%K -14.04%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.74%EV -4.79%E -1.02%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.63%EV -5.91%E -1.44%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-22 12:14
Betsson1.68I 59.52%NM 56.46%EV -4.59%E -2.73%K -6.75%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.40%EV -5.80%E -1.25%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.14%EV -5.91%E -1.44%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-25 12:40
NordicBet1.68I 59.52%NM 56.46%EV -4.59%E -2.73%K -6.75%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.40%EV -5.80%E -1.25%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.14%EV -5.91%E -1.44%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-25 12:40
Coral1.67I 59.88%NM 56.80%EV -5.16%E -3.09%K -7.70%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.62%EV -6.81%E -1.48%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.58%EV -3.61%E -0.860%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-25 05:40
Betr (AU)1.68I 59.52%NM 56.34%EV -4.59%E -2.73%K -6.75%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.58%EV -6.81%E -1.48%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%EV -5.91%E -1.44%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-24 16:44
BetMGM1.67I 59.88%NM 56.49%EV -5.16%E -3.09%K -7.70%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -6.81%E -1.48%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.01%EV -5.91%E -1.44%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-25 05:40
Ladbrokes (UK)1.65I 60.61%NM 57.09%EV -6.29%E -3.81%K -9.68%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.48%EV -6.81%E -1.48%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%EV -3.61%E -0.860%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-25 05:40
BetRivers1.67I 59.88%NM 55.83%EV -5.16%E -3.09%K -7.70%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -6.81%E -1.48%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-23 11:35
TABtouch1.67I 59.88%NM 55.83%EV -5.16%E -3.09%K -7.70%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -6.81%E -1.48%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-23 11:35
Unibet (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 55.83%EV -5.16%E -3.09%K -7.70%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -6.81%E -1.48%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-23 11:34
Unibet (NL)1.67I 59.88%NM 55.83%EV -5.16%E -3.09%K -7.70%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -6.81%E -1.48%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-23 11:35
Casumo1.67I 59.88%NM 55.83%EV -5.16%E -3.09%K -7.70%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -6.81%E -1.48%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-23 11:34
Grosvenor1.67I 59.88%NM 55.83%EV -5.16%E -3.09%K -7.70%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -6.81%E -1.48%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-23 11:34
Svenska Spel1.67I 59.88%NM 55.83%EV -5.16%E -3.09%K -7.70%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -6.81%E -1.48%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-23 11:34
ATG (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 55.83%EV -5.16%E -3.09%K -7.70%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -6.81%E -1.48%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-23 11:34
Unibet1.67I 59.88%NM 55.83%EV -5.16%E -3.09%K -7.70%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -6.81%E -1.48%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-23 11:34
betPARX1.67I 59.88%NM 55.83%EV -5.16%E -3.09%K -7.70%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.27%EV -6.81%E -1.48%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-23 11:35
SportsBet1.63I 61.35%NM 57.08%EV -7.43%E -4.56%K -11.79%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.23%EV -6.81%E -1.48%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.69%EV -5.91%E -1.44%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-24 16:44
FanDuel1.62I 61.73%NM 57.23%EV -8.00%E -4.94%K -12.90%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.16%EV -6.81%E -1.48%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -5.91%E -1.44%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-24 16:45
Coolbet1.68I 59.52%NM 56.39%EV -4.59%E -2.73%K -6.75%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -8.84%E -1.96%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.56%EV -3.61%E -0.860%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-24 16:40
William Hill1.65I 60.61%NM 55.87%EV -6.29%E -3.81%K -9.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -8.84%E -1.96%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-22 12:14
888sport (SE)1.65I 60.61%NM 55.87%EV -6.29%E -3.81%K -9.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -8.84%E -1.96%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-22 12:14
888sport1.65I 60.61%NM 55.87%EV -6.29%E -3.81%K -9.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -8.84%E -1.96%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-22 12:14
Mr Green (SE)1.65I 60.61%NM 55.87%EV -6.29%E -3.81%K -9.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -8.84%E -1.96%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-22 12:14
Codere (IT)1.64I 60.98%NM 56.19%EV -6.86%E -4.18%K -10.72%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -8.84%E -1.96%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.33%EV -9.35%E -2.37%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-22 12:14
Unibet (UK)1.62I 61.73%NM 56.33%EV -8.00%E -4.94%K -12.90%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.28%EV -8.84%E -1.96%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.40%EV -10.50%E -2.69%K -3.62%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-22 12:10
Paddy Power1.60I 62.50%NM 56.70%EV -9.13%E -5.71%K -15.22%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.62%EV -10.86%E -2.47%K -3.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.68%EV -8.20%E -2.05%K -2.73%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-24 16:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.60I 62.50%NM 56.70%EV -9.13%E -5.71%K -15.22%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.62%EV -10.86%E -2.47%K -3.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.68%EV -8.20%E -2.05%K -2.73%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-24 16:45
LiveScore Bet1.64I 60.98%NM 54.49%EV -6.86%E -4.18%K -10.72%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.03%EV -13.90%E -3.27%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.48%EV -16.23%E -4.45%K -6.13%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-23 11:34
Virgin Bet1.64I 60.98%NM 54.49%EV -6.86%E -4.18%K -10.72%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.03%EV -13.90%E -3.27%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.48%EV -16.23%E -4.45%K -6.13%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-23 11:34
LeoVegas (SE)1.64I 60.98%NM 54.49%EV -6.86%E -4.18%K -10.72%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.03%EV -13.90%E -3.27%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.48%EV -16.23%E -4.45%K -6.13%G +0.000%11.9%2026-07-23 11:35
Betclic (FR)1.56I 64.10%NM 56.08%EV -11.40%E -7.31%K -20.37%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.59%EV -13.90%E -3.27%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.33%EV -13.94%E -3.72%K -5.07%G +0.000%14.3%2026-07-24 16:50
BoyleSports1.60I 62.50%NM 55.49%EV -9.13%E -5.71%K -15.22%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.14%EV -14.92%E -3.55%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.37%EV -12.79%E -3.37%K -4.57%G +0.000%12.6%2026-07-22 12:15
PMU (FR)1.63I 61.35%NM 54.32%EV -7.43%E -4.56%K -11.79%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.08%EV -14.92%E -3.55%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.60%EV -17.38%E -4.83%K -6.68%G +0.000%12.9%2026-07-23 11:34
NetBet (FR)1.47I 68.03%NM 57.05%EV -16.52%E -11.24%K -35.14%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 19.97%EV -14.92%E -3.55%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 22.98%EV -16.23%E -4.45%K -6.13%G +0.000%19.2%2026-07-25 11:30
Unibet (FR)1.57I 63.69%NM 55.30%EV -10.84%E -6.90%K -19.01%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 20.92%EV -15.93%E -3.84%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.78%EV -16.23%E -4.45%K -6.13%G +0.000%15.2%2026-07-24 16:45
Winamax (DE)1.56I 64.10%NM 55.83%EV -11.40%E -7.31%K -20.37%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.24%EV -16.94%E -4.13%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.92%EV -12.79%E -3.37%K -4.57%G +0.000%14.8%2026-07-22 12:14
Sky Bet1.57I 63.69%NM 54.69%EV -10.84%E -6.90%K -19.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.46%EV -18.97%E -4.74%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.85%EV -17.38%E -4.83%K -6.68%G +0.000%16.5%2026-07-24 16:45
Winamax (FR)1.52I 65.79%NM 55.19%EV -13.68%E -9.00%K -26.30%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.51%EV -20.99%E -5.38%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.30%EV -17.38%E -4.83%K -6.68%G +0.000%19.2%2026-07-22 12:14
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.63I 61.35%NM 57.88%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.66%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%6.0%2026-07-26 03:50
Smarkets1.62I 61.73%NM 57.48%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.81%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.71%7.4%2026-07-26 04:04
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.63I 61.35%NM 55.99%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.01%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.00%9.6%2026-07-26 04:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.63I 61.35%NM 55.99%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.01%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.00%9.6%2026-07-26 04:10