Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fortuna Sittard v Ajax

Kickoff: 2026-09-12 18:00 UTC

Final: Fortuna Sittard 1–5 Ajax

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fortuna Sittard (Local)

Prediction 14.33%6.98fair odd
EV +7.44%
Edge +0.992%
Kelly +1.14%
Growth +0.085%

assuming max odds 7.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.69%14.23%14.50%15.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.706.556.507.5017.54%15.26%15.38%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ajax (Visit)

Prediction 67.57%1.48fair odd
EV -3.37%
Edge -2.36%
Kelly -7.84%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.08%67.57%67.41%70.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.381.381.4375.76%72.64%72.46%69.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 18.10%5.52fair odd
EV +1.37%
Edge +0.245%
Kelly +0.298%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 5.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.19%18.20%18.09%20.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.605.075.005.6021.74%19.72%20.00%17.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fortuna Sittard (Local): 14.33%; Ajax (Visit): 67.57%; Draw: 18.10%. For Fortuna Sittard (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.98. 16 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.44%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Bet Victor🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV +7.44%E +0.992%K +1.14%G +0.085%1.36I 73.53%NM 70.00%EV -8.10%E -5.96%K -22.50%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.31%EV -0.439%E -0.080%K -0.098%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-12 17:36
betano_uk🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV +7.44%E +0.992%K +1.14%G +0.085%1.36I 73.53%NM 70.00%EV -8.10%E -5.96%K -22.50%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.31%EV -0.439%E -0.080%K -0.098%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-12 17:34
NordicBet🎯7.30I 13.70%NM 12.93%EV +4.57%E +0.626%K +0.726%G +0.033%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.41%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.49%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.66%EV -13.11%E -2.73%K -3.45%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-12 17:00
Betsson🎯7.30I 13.70%NM 12.93%EV +4.57%E +0.626%K +0.726%G +0.033%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.41%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.49%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.66%EV -13.11%E -2.73%K -3.45%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-12 17:00
LowVig.ag🎯7.15I 13.99%NM 13.29%EV +2.42%E +0.339%K +0.394%G +0.010%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.87%EV -6.75%E -4.89%K -17.76%G +0.000%5.33I 18.76%NM 17.83%EV -3.52%E -0.660%K -0.812%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-12 16:50
BetOnline.ag🎯7.15I 13.99%NM 13.29%EV +2.42%E +0.339%K +0.394%G +0.010%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.87%EV -6.75%E -4.89%K -17.76%G +0.000%5.33I 18.76%NM 17.83%EV -3.52%E -0.660%K -0.812%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-12 16:50
BetUS🎯7.15I 13.99%NM 13.29%EV +2.42%E +0.339%K +0.394%G +0.010%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.87%EV -6.75%E -4.89%K -17.76%G +0.000%5.33I 18.76%NM 17.83%EV -3.52%E -0.660%K -0.812%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-12 16:51
BetAnything🎯7.15I 13.99%NM 13.29%EV +2.42%E +0.339%K +0.394%G +0.010%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.87%EV -6.75%E -4.89%K -17.76%G +0.000%5.33I 18.76%NM 17.83%EV -3.52%E -0.660%K -0.812%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-12 16:50
Pinnacle🎯7.06I 14.16%NM 13.64%EV +1.14%E +0.161%K +0.187%G +0.002%1.41I 70.92%NM 68.32%EV -4.72%E -3.35%K -11.52%G +0.000%5.34I 18.73%NM 18.04%EV -3.34%E -0.625%K -0.768%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-12 17:55
Unibet (NL)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.84%EV +0.276%E +0.039%K +0.046%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 68.22%EV -4.05%E -2.85%K -9.63%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.94%EV -2.25%E -0.417%K -0.511%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-12 17:50
ATG (SE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.73%EV +0.276%E +0.039%K +0.046%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 68.14%EV -4.72%E -3.35%K -11.52%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.13%EV -4.06%E -0.766%K -0.944%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-12 17:50
Svenska Spel🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.73%EV +0.276%E +0.039%K +0.046%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 68.14%EV -4.72%E -3.35%K -11.52%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.13%EV -4.06%E -0.766%K -0.944%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-12 17:50
DraftKings🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.57%EV +0.276%E +0.039%K +0.046%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -6.07%E -4.37%K -15.57%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.09%EV -4.96%E -0.946%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-12 17:30
Fanatics🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV +0.276%E +0.039%K +0.046%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -8.10%E -5.96%K -22.50%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.82%EV -4.96%E -0.946%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-12 16:25
SportsBet🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV +0.276%E +0.039%K +0.046%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 68.04%EV -7.43%E -5.42%K -20.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -9.49%E -1.90%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-12 17:41
FanDuel🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.03%EV +0.276%E +0.039%K +0.046%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 69.09%EV -10.80%E -8.18%K -33.76%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.88%EV -7.68%E -1.51%K -1.87%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-12 17:55
Grosvenor🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 14.05%EV -3.31%E -0.490%K -0.575%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.72%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.49%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.23%EV -5.87%E -1.13%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-12 17:50
Betr (AU)🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.94%EV -3.31%E -0.490%K -0.575%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.23%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.49%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -9.49%E -1.90%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-12 17:55
Bovada🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.86%EV -3.31%E -0.490%K -0.575%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 68.31%EV -7.43%E -5.42%K -20.07%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.83%EV -4.96%E -0.946%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-12 17:49
Marathon Bet🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.82%EV -3.31%E -0.490%K -0.575%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 68.07%EV -7.43%E -5.42%K -20.07%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.11%EV -6.77%E -1.32%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 17:55
PlayUp🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.72%EV -3.31%E -0.490%K -0.575%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.15%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.49%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.13%EV -16.73%E -3.64%K -4.65%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-12 17:05
Tipico (DE)🎯6.70I 14.93%NM 13.93%EV -4.02%E -0.600%K -0.706%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 68.12%EV -7.43%E -5.42%K -20.07%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.95%EV -5.87%E -1.13%K -1.40%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-12 17:21
1xBet🎯6.62I 15.11%NM 14.54%EV -5.17%E -0.781%K -0.920%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 68.27%EV -4.72%E -3.35%K -11.52%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.19%EV +1.37%E +0.245%K +0.298%G +0.004%3.9%2026-09-12 17:50
Unibet (UK)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -6.89%E -1.06%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.47%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.49%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.99%EV -4.96%E -0.946%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-12 17:05
Coral🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -6.89%E -1.06%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.47%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.49%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.99%EV -4.96%E -0.946%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-07 17:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -6.89%E -1.06%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.47%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.49%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.99%EV -4.96%E -0.946%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-07 17:10
Betway🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -6.89%E -1.06%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.47%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.49%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.99%EV -4.96%E -0.946%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-12 17:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -6.89%E -1.06%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.49%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -9.49%E -1.90%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-12 17:35
Unibet (SE)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -6.89%E -1.06%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.19%EV -6.75%E -4.89%K -17.76%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.54%EV -9.49%E -1.90%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-12 17:50
betPARX🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -6.89%E -1.06%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.19%EV -6.75%E -4.89%K -17.76%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.54%EV -9.49%E -1.90%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-12 17:50
Casumo🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -6.89%E -1.06%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.19%EV -6.75%E -4.89%K -17.76%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.54%EV -9.49%E -1.90%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-12 17:50
Unibet🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.21%EV -6.89%E -1.06%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.94%EV -6.75%E -4.89%K -17.76%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.85%EV -11.30%E -2.31%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-12 14:20
Paddy Power🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.78%EV -6.89%E -1.06%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 67.36%EV -10.13%E -7.62%K -30.69%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.86%EV -14.02%E -2.95%K -3.74%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-12 17:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.78%EV -6.89%E -1.06%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 67.36%EV -10.13%E -7.62%K -30.69%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.86%EV -14.02%E -2.95%K -3.74%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-12 17:45
Coolbet🎯6.45I 15.50%NM 14.77%EV -7.60%E -1.18%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.09%EV -4.05%E -2.85%K -9.63%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.15%EV -4.96%E -0.946%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-12 14:20
Codere (IT)🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 14.70%EV -8.32%E -1.30%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.49%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.09%EV -5.87%E -1.13%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-12 17:11
BetMGM🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.24%EV -10.47%E -1.67%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.61%EV -3.37%E -2.36%K -7.84%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.14%EV -4.96%E -0.946%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-12 17:50
Virgin Bet🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.57%EV -10.47%E -1.67%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 66.46%EV -7.43%E -5.42%K -20.07%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.97%EV -13.11%E -2.73%K -3.45%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-12 17:50
LiveScore Bet🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.57%EV -10.47%E -1.67%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 66.46%EV -7.43%E -5.42%K -20.07%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.97%EV -13.11%E -2.73%K -3.45%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-12 17:50
BetRivers🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.50%EV -10.47%E -1.67%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.63%EV -8.10%E -5.96%K -22.50%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.88%EV -13.11%E -2.73%K -3.45%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-12 17:50
PMU (FR)🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.50%EV -10.47%E -1.67%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.63%EV -8.10%E -5.96%K -22.50%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.88%EV -13.11%E -2.73%K -3.45%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-12 17:05
TABtouch🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.47%EV -10.47%E -1.67%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.49%EV -8.10%E -5.96%K -22.50%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.04%EV -14.02%E -2.95%K -3.74%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-12 14:20
Sky Bet🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.17%EV -10.47%E -1.67%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 66.58%EV -10.13%E -7.62%K -30.69%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.25%EV -16.73%E -3.64%K -4.65%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-12 17:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 14.70%EV -12.62%E -2.07%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.42%EV -8.78%E -6.50%K -25.08%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.88%EV -14.02%E -2.95%K -3.74%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-12 17:50
Unibet (FR)🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 14.62%EV -12.62%E -2.07%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 67.55%EV -10.80%E -8.18%K -33.76%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.83%EV -9.49%E -1.90%K -2.37%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-12 17:41
betfred_uk🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV -14.05%E -2.34%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.08%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.49%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -9.49%E -1.90%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-12 17:55
Bet Right🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.22%EV -14.05%E -2.34%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.15%EV -6.75%E -4.89%K -17.76%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.63%EV -11.30%E -2.31%K -2.90%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-12 17:55
888sport🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.12%EV -14.05%E -2.34%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.73%EV -8.10%E -5.96%K -22.50%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.15%EV -9.49%E -1.90%K -2.37%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-12 17:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.12%EV -14.05%E -2.34%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.73%EV -8.10%E -5.96%K -22.50%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.15%EV -9.49%E -1.90%K -2.37%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-12 17:55
888sport (SE)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.12%EV -14.05%E -2.34%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.73%EV -8.10%E -5.96%K -22.50%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.15%EV -9.49%E -1.90%K -2.37%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-12 17:55
William Hill🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.12%EV -14.05%E -2.34%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.73%EV -8.10%E -5.96%K -22.50%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.15%EV -9.49%E -1.90%K -2.37%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-12 17:54
BoyleSports🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.98%EV -14.05%E -2.34%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.09%EV -8.10%E -5.96%K -22.50%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.92%EV -14.02%E -2.95%K -3.74%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-12 15:36
Betclic (FR)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.87%EV -14.05%E -2.34%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 67.10%EV -10.13%E -7.62%K -30.69%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.03%EV -10.40%E -2.10%K -2.63%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-12 17:30
NetBet (FR)🎯5.90I 16.95%NM 15.15%EV -15.48%E -2.62%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.22%EV -8.78%E -6.50%K -25.08%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.63%EV -13.11%E -2.73%K -3.45%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-12 17:55
Winamax (DE)🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.75%EV -16.91%E -2.92%K -3.52%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 66.68%EV -7.43%E -5.42%K -20.07%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.57%EV -5.87%E -1.13%K -1.40%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-12 17:05
Winamax (FR)🎯5.70I 17.54%NM 15.85%EV -18.35%E -3.22%K -3.90%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.43%EV -8.10%E -5.96%K -22.50%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.72%EV -7.68%E -1.51%K -1.87%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-12 17:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)7.60I 13.16%NM 13.06%1.44I 69.44%NM 68.90%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.04%0.8%2026-09-12 17:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)7.60I 13.16%NM 13.06%1.44I 69.44%NM 68.90%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.04%0.8%2026-09-12 17:51
Betfair Exchange (EU)7.60I 13.16%NM 13.06%1.44I 69.44%NM 68.90%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.04%0.8%2026-09-12 17:50
Matchbook7.60I 13.16%NM 13.06%1.44I 69.44%NM 68.90%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.04%0.8%2026-09-12 17:50
Smarkets7.60I 13.16%NM 12.99%1.43I 69.93%NM 69.05%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.95%1.3%2026-09-12 17:55
Kalshi7.14I 14.01%NM 13.74%1.43I 69.93%NM 68.61%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.65%1.9%2026-09-12 17:50