Modèle par défautMoyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Fortuna Sittard v Ajax

Coup d’envoi : 2026-09-12 18:00 UTC

Score final : Fortuna Sittard 1–5 Ajax

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

56 opérateurs (21 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Fortuna Sittard (Local)

Prévision 14.33%6.98cote équitable
EV +7.44%
Avantage +0.992%
Kelly +1.14%
Croissance +0.085%

avec la cote maximale 7.50

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
12.69%14.23%14.50%15.85%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
5.706.556.507.5017.54%15.26%15.38%13.33%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Ajax (Visiteur)

Prévision 67.57%1.48cote équitable
EV -3.37%
Avantage -2.36%
Kelly -7.84%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.43

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
66.08%67.57%67.41%70.00%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
1.321.381.381.4375.76%72.64%72.46%69.93%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Match nul

Prévision 18.10%5.52cote équitable
EV +1.37%
Avantage +0.245%
Kelly +0.298%
Croissance +0.004%

avec la cote maximale 5.60

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
17.19%18.20%18.09%20.13%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
4.605.075.005.6021.74%19.72%20.00%17.86%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : Fortuna Sittard (Local) : 14.33% ; Ajax (Visiteur) : 67.57% ; Match nul : 18.10%. Pour Fortuna Sittard (Local), cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 6.98. 16 opérateurs proposaient une cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil ; la meilleure était 7.50, soit une espérance positive de +7.44%.

Cotes des opérateurs (56 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
Bet Victor🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV +7.44%E +0.992%K +1.14%G +0.085%1.36I 73.53%NM 70.00%EV -8.10%E -5.96%K -22.50%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.31%EV -0.439%E -0.080%K -0.098%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-12 17:36
betano_uk🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV +7.44%E +0.992%K +1.14%G +0.085%1.36I 73.53%NM 70.00%EV -8.10%E -5.96%K -22.50%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.31%EV -0.439%E -0.080%K -0.098%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-12 17:34
NordicBet🎯7.30I 13.70%NM 12.93%EV +4.57%E +0.626%K +0.726%G +0.033%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.41%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.49%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.66%EV -13.11%E -2.73%K -3.45%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-12 17:00
Betsson🎯7.30I 13.70%NM 12.93%EV +4.57%E +0.626%K +0.726%G +0.033%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.41%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.49%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.66%EV -13.11%E -2.73%K -3.45%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-12 17:00
LowVig.ag🎯7.15I 13.99%NM 13.29%EV +2.42%E +0.339%K +0.394%G +0.010%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.87%EV -6.75%E -4.89%K -17.76%G +0.000%5.33I 18.76%NM 17.83%EV -3.52%E -0.660%K -0.812%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-12 16:50
BetOnline.ag🎯7.15I 13.99%NM 13.29%EV +2.42%E +0.339%K +0.394%G +0.010%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.87%EV -6.75%E -4.89%K -17.76%G +0.000%5.33I 18.76%NM 17.83%EV -3.52%E -0.660%K -0.812%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-12 16:50
BetUS🎯7.15I 13.99%NM 13.29%EV +2.42%E +0.339%K +0.394%G +0.010%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.87%EV -6.75%E -4.89%K -17.76%G +0.000%5.33I 18.76%NM 17.83%EV -3.52%E -0.660%K -0.812%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-12 16:51
BetAnything🎯7.15I 13.99%NM 13.29%EV +2.42%E +0.339%K +0.394%G +0.010%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.87%EV -6.75%E -4.89%K -17.76%G +0.000%5.33I 18.76%NM 17.83%EV -3.52%E -0.660%K -0.812%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-12 16:50
Pinnacle🎯7.06I 14.16%NM 13.64%EV +1.14%E +0.161%K +0.187%G +0.002%1.41I 70.92%NM 68.32%EV -4.72%E -3.35%K -11.52%G +0.000%5.34I 18.73%NM 18.04%EV -3.34%E -0.625%K -0.768%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-12 17:55
Unibet (NL)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.84%EV +0.276%E +0.039%K +0.046%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 68.22%EV -4.05%E -2.85%K -9.63%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.94%EV -2.25%E -0.417%K -0.511%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-12 17:50
ATG (SE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.73%EV +0.276%E +0.039%K +0.046%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 68.14%EV -4.72%E -3.35%K -11.52%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.13%EV -4.06%E -0.766%K -0.944%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-12 17:50
Svenska Spel🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.73%EV +0.276%E +0.039%K +0.046%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 68.14%EV -4.72%E -3.35%K -11.52%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.13%EV -4.06%E -0.766%K -0.944%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-12 17:50
DraftKings🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.57%EV +0.276%E +0.039%K +0.046%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -6.07%E -4.37%K -15.57%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.09%EV -4.96%E -0.946%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-12 17:30
Fanatics🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV +0.276%E +0.039%K +0.046%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -8.10%E -5.96%K -22.50%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.82%EV -4.96%E -0.946%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-12 16:25
SportsBet🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.32%EV +0.276%E +0.039%K +0.046%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 68.04%EV -7.43%E -5.42%K -20.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -9.49%E -1.90%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-12 17:41
FanDuel🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.03%EV +0.276%E +0.039%K +0.046%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 69.09%EV -10.80%E -8.18%K -33.76%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.88%EV -7.68%E -1.51%K -1.87%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-12 17:55
Grosvenor🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 14.05%EV -3.31%E -0.490%K -0.575%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.72%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.49%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.23%EV -5.87%E -1.13%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-12 17:50
Betr (AU)🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.94%EV -3.31%E -0.490%K -0.575%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.23%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.49%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -9.49%E -1.90%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-12 17:55
Bovada🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.86%EV -3.31%E -0.490%K -0.575%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 68.31%EV -7.43%E -5.42%K -20.07%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.83%EV -4.96%E -0.946%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-12 17:49
Marathon Bet🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.82%EV -3.31%E -0.490%K -0.575%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 68.07%EV -7.43%E -5.42%K -20.07%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.11%EV -6.77%E -1.32%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 17:55
PlayUp🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.72%EV -3.31%E -0.490%K -0.575%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.15%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.49%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.13%EV -16.73%E -3.64%K -4.65%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-12 17:05
Tipico (DE)🎯6.70I 14.93%NM 13.93%EV -4.02%E -0.600%K -0.706%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 68.12%EV -7.43%E -5.42%K -20.07%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.95%EV -5.87%E -1.13%K -1.40%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-12 17:21
1xBet🎯6.62I 15.11%NM 14.54%EV -5.17%E -0.781%K -0.920%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 68.27%EV -4.72%E -3.35%K -11.52%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.19%EV +1.37%E +0.245%K +0.298%G +0.004%3.9%2026-09-12 17:50
Unibet (UK)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -6.89%E -1.06%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.47%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.49%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.99%EV -4.96%E -0.946%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-12 17:05
Coral🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -6.89%E -1.06%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.47%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.49%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.99%EV -4.96%E -0.946%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-07 17:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -6.89%E -1.06%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.47%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.49%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.99%EV -4.96%E -0.946%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-07 17:10
Betway🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -6.89%E -1.06%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.47%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.49%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.99%EV -4.96%E -0.946%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-12 17:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -6.89%E -1.06%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.49%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -9.49%E -1.90%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-12 17:35
Unibet (SE)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -6.89%E -1.06%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.19%EV -6.75%E -4.89%K -17.76%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.54%EV -9.49%E -1.90%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-12 17:50
betPARX🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -6.89%E -1.06%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.19%EV -6.75%E -4.89%K -17.76%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.54%EV -9.49%E -1.90%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-12 17:50
Casumo🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -6.89%E -1.06%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.19%EV -6.75%E -4.89%K -17.76%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.54%EV -9.49%E -1.90%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-12 17:50
Unibet🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.21%EV -6.89%E -1.06%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.94%EV -6.75%E -4.89%K -17.76%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.85%EV -11.30%E -2.31%K -2.90%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-12 14:20
Paddy Power🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.78%EV -6.89%E -1.06%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 67.36%EV -10.13%E -7.62%K -30.69%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.86%EV -14.02%E -2.95%K -3.74%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-12 17:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.78%EV -6.89%E -1.06%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 67.36%EV -10.13%E -7.62%K -30.69%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.86%EV -14.02%E -2.95%K -3.74%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-12 17:45
Coolbet🎯6.45I 15.50%NM 14.77%EV -7.60%E -1.18%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.09%EV -4.05%E -2.85%K -9.63%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.15%EV -4.96%E -0.946%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-12 14:20
Codere (IT)🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 14.70%EV -8.32%E -1.30%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.49%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.09%EV -5.87%E -1.13%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-12 17:11
BetMGM🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.24%EV -10.47%E -1.67%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.61%EV -3.37%E -2.36%K -7.84%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.14%EV -4.96%E -0.946%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-12 17:50
Virgin Bet🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.57%EV -10.47%E -1.67%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 66.46%EV -7.43%E -5.42%K -20.07%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.97%EV -13.11%E -2.73%K -3.45%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-12 17:50
LiveScore Bet🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.57%EV -10.47%E -1.67%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 66.46%EV -7.43%E -5.42%K -20.07%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.97%EV -13.11%E -2.73%K -3.45%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-12 17:50
BetRivers🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.50%EV -10.47%E -1.67%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.63%EV -8.10%E -5.96%K -22.50%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.88%EV -13.11%E -2.73%K -3.45%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-12 17:50
PMU (FR)🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.50%EV -10.47%E -1.67%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.63%EV -8.10%E -5.96%K -22.50%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.88%EV -13.11%E -2.73%K -3.45%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-12 17:05
TABtouch🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.47%EV -10.47%E -1.67%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.49%EV -8.10%E -5.96%K -22.50%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.04%EV -14.02%E -2.95%K -3.74%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-12 14:20
Sky Bet🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.17%EV -10.47%E -1.67%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 66.58%EV -10.13%E -7.62%K -30.69%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.25%EV -16.73%E -3.64%K -4.65%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-12 17:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 14.70%EV -12.62%E -2.07%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.42%EV -8.78%E -6.50%K -25.08%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.88%EV -14.02%E -2.95%K -3.74%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-12 17:50
Unibet (FR)🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 14.62%EV -12.62%E -2.07%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 67.55%EV -10.80%E -8.18%K -33.76%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.83%EV -9.49%E -1.90%K -2.37%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-12 17:41
betfred_uk🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV -14.05%E -2.34%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.08%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.49%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -9.49%E -1.90%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-12 17:55
Bet Right🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.22%EV -14.05%E -2.34%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.15%EV -6.75%E -4.89%K -17.76%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.63%EV -11.30%E -2.31%K -2.90%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-12 17:55
888sport🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.12%EV -14.05%E -2.34%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.73%EV -8.10%E -5.96%K -22.50%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.15%EV -9.49%E -1.90%K -2.37%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-12 17:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.12%EV -14.05%E -2.34%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.73%EV -8.10%E -5.96%K -22.50%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.15%EV -9.49%E -1.90%K -2.37%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-12 17:55
888sport (SE)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.12%EV -14.05%E -2.34%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.73%EV -8.10%E -5.96%K -22.50%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.15%EV -9.49%E -1.90%K -2.37%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-12 17:55
William Hill🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.12%EV -14.05%E -2.34%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.73%EV -8.10%E -5.96%K -22.50%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.15%EV -9.49%E -1.90%K -2.37%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-12 17:54
BoyleSports🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.98%EV -14.05%E -2.34%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.09%EV -8.10%E -5.96%K -22.50%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.92%EV -14.02%E -2.95%K -3.74%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-12 15:36
Betclic (FR)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.87%EV -14.05%E -2.34%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 67.10%EV -10.13%E -7.62%K -30.69%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.03%EV -10.40%E -2.10%K -2.63%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-12 17:30
NetBet (FR)🎯5.90I 16.95%NM 15.15%EV -15.48%E -2.62%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.22%EV -8.78%E -6.50%K -25.08%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.63%EV -13.11%E -2.73%K -3.45%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-12 17:55
Winamax (DE)🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.75%EV -16.91%E -2.92%K -3.52%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 66.68%EV -7.43%E -5.42%K -20.07%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.57%EV -5.87%E -1.13%K -1.40%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-12 17:05
Winamax (FR)🎯5.70I 17.54%NM 15.85%EV -18.35%E -3.22%K -3.90%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.43%EV -8.10%E -5.96%K -22.50%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.72%EV -7.68%E -1.51%K -1.87%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-12 17:05
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎7.60I 13.16%NM 13.06%1.44I 69.44%NM 68.90%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.04%0.8%2026-09-12 17:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎7.60I 13.16%NM 13.06%1.44I 69.44%NM 68.90%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.04%0.8%2026-09-12 17:51
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎7.60I 13.16%NM 13.06%1.44I 69.44%NM 68.90%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.04%0.8%2026-09-12 17:50
Matchbook◎7.60I 13.16%NM 13.06%1.44I 69.44%NM 68.90%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.04%0.8%2026-09-12 17:50
Smarkets◎7.60I 13.16%NM 12.99%1.43I 69.93%NM 69.05%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.95%1.3%2026-09-12 17:55
Kalshi◎7.14I 14.01%NM 13.74%1.43I 69.93%NM 68.61%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.65%1.9%2026-09-12 17:50