The School of Odds

Santos Laguna v Guadalajara

2026-08-17 01:00 UTC — Liga MX

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Santos Laguna (Local)

Prediction 18.46%5.42fair odd
EV -3.06%
Edge -0.584%
Kelly -0.721%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.21%18.46%18.40%19.98%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.334.794.825.2523.09%20.88%20.75%19.05%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Guadalajara (Visit)

Prediction 58.71%1.70fair odd
EV -1.36%
Edge -0.809%
Kelly -2.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.20%58.71%58.89%59.16%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.511.591.591.6866.23%63.07%62.89%59.52%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 22.82%4.38fair odd
EV -4.15%
Edge -0.988%
Kelly -1.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.40%22.82%22.71%24.21%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.603.963.984.2027.78%25.26%25.13%23.81%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet5.25I 19.05%NM 18.21%EV -3.06%E -0.584%K -0.721%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.02%EV -4.88%E -3.01%K -7.87%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.77%EV -4.15%E -0.988%K -1.30%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-26 12:05
FanDuel5.10I 19.61%NM 18.44%EV -5.83%E -1.14%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.16%EV -6.64%E -4.18%K -11.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -4.15%E -0.988%K -1.30%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-26 12:09
SportsBet5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -7.68%E -1.54%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.47%EV -6.06%E -3.79%K -10.09%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -6.43%E -1.57%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-26 12:05
Marathon Bet4.95I 20.20%NM 18.74%EV -8.60%E -1.74%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.96%EV -6.06%E -3.79%K -10.09%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.30%EV -9.17%E -2.30%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-26 12:54
1xBet4.82I 20.75%NM 19.59%EV -11.00%E -2.28%K -2.88%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.20%EV -1.36%E -0.809%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.21%EV -11.00%E -2.82%K -3.79%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-26 12:04
Paddy Power4.75I 21.05%NM 19.18%EV -12.30%E -2.59%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.04%EV -7.82%E -4.98%K -13.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -8.72%E -2.18%K -2.91%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-26 12:10
LeoVegas4.50I 22.22%NM 19.98%EV -16.91%E -3.76%K -4.83%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 57.26%EV -7.82%E -4.98%K -13.72%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.76%EV -9.86%E -2.50%K -3.34%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-26 12:10
Betclic (FR)4.40I 22.73%NM 19.60%EV -18.76%E -4.26%K -5.52%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 57.10%EV -11.34%E -7.51%K -22.24%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.30%EV -15.56%E -4.21%K -5.76%G +0.000%16.0%2026-07-26 12:10
Sky Bet4.33I 23.09%NM 19.87%EV -20.05%E -4.63%K -6.02%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 56.23%EV -10.17%E -6.64%K -19.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.90%EV -17.84%E -4.96%K -6.86%G +0.000%16.2%2026-07-26 12:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.