Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Pumas v León

Início: 2026-09-11 03:05 UTC

Final: Pumas 3–1 León

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

47 casas de apostas (16 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Pumas (Local)

Previsão 44.41%2.25odd justa
EV -4.07%
Vantagem -1.88%
Kelly -3.51%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.16

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
43.03%44.64%44.37%46.84%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.832.032.052.1654.64%49.34%48.78%46.30%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

León (Visitante)

Previsão 29.28%3.42odd justa
EV +2.46%
Vantagem +0.704%
Kelly +0.986%
Crescimento +0.024%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.50

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
26.77%29.07%29.32%30.12%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.973.203.203.5033.67%31.29%31.25%28.57%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 26.31%3.80odd justa
EV -1.33%
Vantagem -0.355%
Kelly -0.484%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.75

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
25.24%26.28%26.30%27.57%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.203.483.503.7531.25%28.77%28.57%26.67%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Pumas (Local): 44.41%; León (Visitante): 29.28%; Empate: 26.31%. Para León (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.42. 2 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 3.50, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +2.46%.

Odds das casas de apostas (47 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
Svenska Spel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.84%EV -11.17%E -5.59%K -11.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV +2.46%E +0.704%K +0.986%G +0.024%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.39%EV -6.59%E -1.86%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-08 05:59
ATG (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.84%EV -11.17%E -5.59%K -11.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV +2.46%E +0.704%K +0.986%G +0.024%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.39%EV -6.59%E -1.86%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-08 05:59
GTbets🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -8.95%E -4.37%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -0.463%E -0.136%K -0.193%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -5.28%E -1.47%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-06 04:20
Unibet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.68%EV -12.51%E -6.35%K -12.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -0.463%E -0.136%K -0.193%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -7.91%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-09 08:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.81%EV -12.95%E -6.61%K -13.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV -0.463%E -0.136%K -0.193%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.21%EV -7.91%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-09 08:54
Grosvenor🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.81%EV -12.95%E -6.61%K -13.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV -0.463%E -0.136%K -0.193%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.21%EV -7.91%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-09 08:54
Unibet (NL)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.81%EV -12.95%E -6.61%K -13.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV -0.463%E -0.136%K -0.193%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.21%EV -7.91%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-09 08:54
Casumo🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.81%EV -12.95%E -6.61%K -13.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV -0.463%E -0.136%K -0.193%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.21%EV -7.91%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-09 08:54
BetRivers🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.81%EV -12.95%E -6.61%K -13.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV -0.463%E -0.136%K -0.193%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.21%EV -7.91%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-09 08:54
betPARX🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.81%EV -12.95%E -6.61%K -13.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV -0.463%E -0.136%K -0.193%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.21%EV -7.91%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-09 08:54
Fanatics🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -6.73%E -3.21%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -3.39%E -1.03%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -5.28%E -1.47%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-09 05:04
Tipico (DE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.64%EV -12.51%E -6.35%K -12.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.84%EV -3.39%E -1.03%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -5.28%E -1.47%K -2.03%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-09 14:45
TABtouch🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.46%EV -14.28%E -7.40%K -15.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.17%EV -3.39%E -1.03%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -10.54%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-09 08:54
Pinnacle🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.09%EV -4.07%E -1.88%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.30%EV -4.85%E -1.49%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.60%EV -5.80%E -1.62%K -2.25%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-09 05:04
LiveScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.34%EV -15.17%E -7.94%K -16.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.24%EV -4.85%E -1.49%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.42%EV -11.86%E -3.54%K -5.04%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-09 08:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.34%EV -15.17%E -7.94%K -16.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.24%EV -4.85%E -1.49%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.42%EV -11.86%E -3.54%K -5.04%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-09 08:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.34%EV -15.17%E -7.94%K -16.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.24%EV -4.85%E -1.49%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.42%EV -11.86%E -3.54%K -5.04%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-09 08:54
Coolbet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.12%EV -6.73%E -3.21%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -6.32%E -1.97%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.27%EV -1.33%E -0.355%K -0.484%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-09 07:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.12%EV -6.73%E -3.21%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -6.32%E -1.97%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.27%EV -1.33%E -0.355%K -0.484%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-09 06:59
FanDuel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.97%EV -6.73%E -3.21%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -6.32%E -1.97%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.52%EV -2.65%E -0.715%K -0.980%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-09 06:59
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.49%EV -6.73%E -3.21%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -6.32%E -1.97%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -6.59%E -1.86%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-09 06:59
Unibet (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -6.73%E -3.21%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -6.32%E -1.97%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -7.91%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-09 13:35
NordicBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.75%EV -8.95%E -4.37%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -6.32%E -1.97%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.59%EV -9.22%E -2.67%K -3.76%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-09 16:51
Betsson🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.75%EV -8.95%E -4.37%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -6.32%E -1.97%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.59%EV -9.22%E -2.67%K -3.76%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-09 16:50
SportsBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.99%EV -7.62%E -3.66%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -7.78%E -2.47%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -2.65%E -0.715%K -0.980%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-09 06:59
1xBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.38%EV -6.73%E -3.21%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.59%EV -7.78%E -2.47%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.03%EV -5.80%E -1.62%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-09 16:45
BetUS🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.95%EV -6.73%E -3.21%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.30%EV -7.78%E -2.47%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -9.22%E -2.67%K -3.76%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-09 05:04
PlayUp🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.88%EV -8.95%E -4.37%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -7.78%E -2.47%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -6.59%E -1.86%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-09 16:05
Fliff🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.15%EV -11.17%E -5.59%K -11.17%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.67%EV -7.78%E -2.47%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.18%EV -9.22%E -2.67%K -3.76%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-09 13:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 46.64%EV -18.72%E -10.23%K -22.56%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.10%EV -7.78%E -2.47%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.26%EV -14.49%E -4.46%K -6.44%G +0.000%17.2%2026-09-09 08:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.57%EV -7.62%E -3.66%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.53%EV -8.07%E -2.57%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 25.90%EV -5.80%E -1.62%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-09 16:45
betano_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.99%EV -6.73%E -3.21%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.61%EV -8.66%E -2.78%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -7.91%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-09 17:30
Bet Victor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.99%EV -6.73%E -3.21%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.61%EV -8.66%E -2.78%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -7.91%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-09 17:36
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -6.73%E -3.21%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -9.25%E -2.98%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -7.91%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-09 10:45
Bet Right🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.67%EV -8.95%E -4.37%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.54%EV -9.25%E -2.98%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.79%EV -6.59%E -1.86%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-09 06:59
LeoVegas🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.98%EV -7.62%E -3.66%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -9.25%E -2.98%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.51%EV -9.22%E -2.67%K -3.76%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-09 13:35
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -11.17%E -5.59%K -11.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -9.25%E -2.98%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -5.28%E -1.47%K -2.03%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-09 07:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.20%EV -10.29%E -5.09%K -10.08%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 28.99%EV -9.83%E -3.19%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 26.81%EV -12.38%E -3.72%K -5.31%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-09 13:33
betfred_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -8.95%E -4.37%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -12.17%E -4.06%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -7.91%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-09 06:59
Sky Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -11.17%E -5.59%K -11.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -12.17%E -4.06%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -7.91%E -2.26%K -3.16%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-09 06:59
Neds🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -8.95%E -4.37%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -12.17%E -4.06%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -13.17%E -3.99%K -5.73%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-09 13:35
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.35%EV -11.17%E -5.59%K -11.17%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.57%EV -12.17%E -4.06%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -10.54%E -3.10%K -4.39%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-09 05:10
888sport🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.03%EV -8.95%E -4.37%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.40%EV -12.17%E -4.06%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.57%EV -15.80%E -4.94%K -7.18%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-09 09:04
William Hill🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.03%EV -8.95%E -4.37%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.40%EV -12.17%E -4.06%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.57%EV -15.80%E -4.94%K -7.18%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-09 09:04
888sport (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.03%EV -8.95%E -4.37%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.40%EV -12.17%E -4.06%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.57%EV -15.80%E -4.94%K -7.18%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-09 09:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.03%EV -8.95%E -4.37%K -8.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.40%EV -12.17%E -4.06%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.57%EV -15.80%E -4.94%K -7.18%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-09 09:04
NetBet (FR)🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 43.99%EV -11.62%E -5.84%K -11.74%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 29.48%EV -13.05%E -4.39%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.53%EV -13.17%E -3.99%K -5.73%G +0.000%14.2%2026-09-09 14:25
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook◎2.18I 45.87%NM 44.60%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.47%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.93%2.8%2026-09-09 14:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.18I 45.87%NM 44.45%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.36%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.19%3.2%2026-09-09 16:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.18I 45.87%NM 44.45%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.36%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.19%3.2%2026-09-09 14:51
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.18I 45.87%NM 44.45%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.36%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.19%3.2%2026-09-09 14:50
Smarkets◎2.16I 46.30%NM 44.32%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.45%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.23%4.5%2026-09-09 14:55
Kalshi◎2.04I 49.02%NM 40.84%2.44I 40.98%NM 34.14%3.33I 30.03%NM 25.02%20.0%2026-09-04 14:35