Language:English
Puebla v Necaxa
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Puebla (Local)
Prediction 42.17%2.37fair odd
EV -2.16%
Edge -0.930%
Kelly -1.63%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.32
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.59%42.35%42.11%45.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.932.132.152.3251.81%46.87%46.51%43.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Necaxa (Visit)
Prediction 30.67%3.26fair odd
EV +4.29%
Edge +1.26%
Kelly +1.79%
Growth +0.077%
assuming max odds 3.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.94%30.56%30.71%31.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.073.063.4036.36%32.59%32.63%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.15%3.68fair odd
EV -0.079%
Edge -0.022%
Kelly -0.030%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.68
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.80%27.09%27.19%28.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.423.453.6833.33%29.23%28.99%27.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Puebla (Local): 42.17%; Necaxa (Visit): 30.67%; Draw: 27.15%. For Necaxa (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.26. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.29%.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.67%EV -12.28%E -5.90%K -11.37%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.94%EV +4.29%E +1.26%K +1.79%G +0.077% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.39%EV -2.25%E -0.625%K -0.866%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-14 00:39 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.67%EV -12.28%E -5.90%K -11.37%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.94%EV +4.29%E +1.26%K +1.79%G +0.077% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.39%EV -2.25%E -0.625%K -0.866%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-14 00:39 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.60%EV -13.97%E -6.85%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV +1.22%E +0.371%K +0.532%G +0.007% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.21%EV -3.61%E -1.02%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-14 00:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.60%EV -13.97%E -6.85%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV +1.22%E +0.371%K +0.532%G +0.007% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.21%EV -3.61%E -1.02%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-14 00:39 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.60%EV -13.97%E -6.85%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV +1.22%E +0.371%K +0.532%G +0.007% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.21%EV -3.61%E -1.02%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-14 00:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.60%EV -13.97%E -6.85%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV +1.22%E +0.371%K +0.532%G +0.007% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.21%EV -3.61%E -1.02%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-14 00:39 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.60%EV -13.97%E -6.85%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV +1.22%E +0.371%K +0.532%G +0.007% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.21%EV -3.61%E -1.02%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-14 00:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.60%EV -13.97%E -6.85%K -13.43%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV +1.22%E +0.371%K +0.532%G +0.007% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.21%EV -3.61%E -1.02%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-14 00:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.85%EV -14.81%E -7.33%K -14.52%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV +1.22%E +0.371%K +0.532%G +0.007% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.09%EV -3.61%E -1.02%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-14 00:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.68%EV -14.81%E -7.33%K -14.52%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.96%EV +1.22%E +0.371%K +0.532%G +0.007% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.36%EV -4.97%E -1.42%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-14 00:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.56%EV -15.65%E -7.83%K -15.65%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.03%EV -0.309%E -0.095%K -0.137%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.41%EV -6.32%E -1.83%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-14 00:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.56%EV -15.65%E -7.83%K -15.65%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.03%EV -0.309%E -0.095%K -0.137%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.41%EV -6.32%E -1.83%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-14 00:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.26%EV -7.22%E -3.28%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 29.55%EV -1.23%E -0.382%K -0.554%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.19%EV -4.97%E -1.42%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-14 00:39 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 45.73%EV -16.92%E -8.59%K -17.44%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.15%EV -1.84%E -0.576%K -0.838%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.11%EV -6.32%E -1.83%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-03-14 00:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.30%EV -12.70%E -6.14%K -11.87%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.11%EV -3.38%E -1.07%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.58%EV -6.32%E -1.83%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-14 00:49 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 45.69%EV -18.61%E -9.64%K -20.01%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.99%EV -3.38%E -1.07%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.32%EV -9.04%E -2.70%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-03-14 00:39 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.18%EV -8.06%E -3.70%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 3.13I 31.95%NM 30.08%EV -3.99%E -1.27%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 26.74%EV -4.42%E -1.26%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-14 00:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.73%EV -2.16%E -0.930%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.23%EV -4.91%E -1.58%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 27.04%EV -2.79%E -0.781%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-03-14 00:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.63%EV -2.16%E -0.930%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.16%EV -4.91%E -1.58%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.21%EV -3.61%E -1.02%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-14 00:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.63%EV -2.16%E -0.930%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.16%EV -4.91%E -1.58%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.21%EV -3.61%E -1.02%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-14 00:39 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.22%E -3.28%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -4.91%E -1.58%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -7.68%E -2.26%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-14 00:54 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -11.44%E -5.45%K -10.40%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -4.91%E -1.58%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -2.25%E -0.625%K -0.866%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-14 00:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -9.33%E -4.34%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -4.91%E -1.58%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -7.68%E -2.26%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-14 00:29 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.68%EV -8.48%E -3.91%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 30.07%EV -5.52%E -1.79%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -7.68%E -2.26%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-14 00:54 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.39%EV -7.22%E -3.28%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.58%EV -6.44%E -2.11%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -6.32%E -1.83%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-14 00:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 41.83%EV -6.37%E -2.87%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.45%EV -6.44%E -2.11%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.72%EV -9.04%E -2.70%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-14 00:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 41.83%EV -6.37%E -2.87%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.45%EV -6.44%E -2.11%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.72%EV -9.04%E -2.70%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-14 00:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.11%EV -3.84%E -1.69%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 31.79%EV -7.36%E -2.44%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 3.68I 27.17%NM 26.09%EV -0.079%E -0.022%K -0.030%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-14 00:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -5.11%E -2.27%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -7.98%E -2.66%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -4.97%E -1.42%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-14 00:39 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -5.11%E -2.27%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -7.98%E -2.66%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -7.68%E -2.26%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-14 00:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -5.11%E -2.27%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -7.98%E -2.66%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -7.68%E -2.26%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-14 00:39 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -5.11%E -2.27%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -7.98%E -2.66%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -10.40%E -3.15%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-14 00:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.84%EV -7.22%E -3.28%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -7.98%E -2.66%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -9.04%E -2.70%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-14 00:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.74%EV -9.33%E -4.34%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -7.98%E -2.66%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -6.32%E -1.83%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-14 00:54 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.40%EV -9.33%E -4.34%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -7.98%E -2.66%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.21%EV -9.04%E -2.70%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-03-14 00:54 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.26%EV -11.44%E -5.45%K -10.40%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.79%EV -9.51%E -3.22%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -4.97%E -1.42%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-03-14 00:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -7.22%E -3.28%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -11.05%E -3.81%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -10.40%E -3.15%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-14 00:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 42.85%EV -13.54%E -6.61%K -12.90%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.29%EV -11.05%E -3.81%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 3.27I 30.58%NM 26.86%EV -11.21%E -3.43%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-03-14 00:39 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.35%EV -9.33%E -4.34%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.87%EV -11.66%E -4.05%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.78%EV -13.11%E -4.10%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-03-14 00:40 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.34%EV -7.22%E -3.28%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.91%EV -12.58%E -4.41%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -7.68%E -2.26%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-14 00:54 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 42.90%EV -13.54%E -6.61%K -12.90%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 30.85%EV -12.58%E -4.41%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.25%EV -9.04%E -2.70%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-03-14 00:40 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 42.60%EV -14.81%E -7.33%K -14.52%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 30.51%EV -13.50%E -4.79%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 26.89%EV -13.11%E -4.10%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 16.2% | 2026-03-14 00:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -9.33%E -4.34%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -14.11%E -5.04%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -7.68%E -2.26%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-03-14 00:39 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 40.99%EV -9.33%E -4.34%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.47%EV -14.11%E -5.04%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.54%EV -13.11%E -4.10%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-03-14 00:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 40.99%EV -9.33%E -4.34%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.47%EV -14.11%E -5.04%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.54%EV -13.11%E -4.10%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-03-14 00:54 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 40.99%EV -9.33%E -4.34%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.47%EV -14.11%E -5.04%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.54%EV -13.11%E -4.10%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-03-14 00:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 40.99%EV -9.33%E -4.34%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.47%EV -14.11%E -5.04%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.54%EV -13.11%E -4.10%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-03-14 00:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 40.59%EV -11.44%E -5.45%K -10.40%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.00%EV -15.65%E -5.69%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.41%EV -18.54%E -6.18%K -9.27%G +0.000% | 17.3% | 2026-03-14 00:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.36I 42.37%NM 42.15% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.60% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.25% | 0.5% | 2026-03-14 00:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.36I 42.37%NM 42.15% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.60% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.25% | 0.5% | 2026-03-14 00:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.36I 42.37%NM 42.15% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.60% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.25% | 0.5% | 2026-03-14 00:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.36I 42.37%NM 42.15% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.60% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.25% | 0.5% | 2026-03-14 00:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 41.99% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.71% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.30% | 1.8% | 2026-03-14 00:50 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.33I 42.92%NM 42.08% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 31.42% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.50% | 2.0% | 2026-03-14 00:55 |