The School of Odds

Necaxa v Monterrey

2026-07-26 23:00 UTC — Liga MX

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Necaxa (Local)

Prediction 35.23%2.84fair odd
EV -6.63%
Edge -2.50%
Kelly -4.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.12%35.12%35.28%36.17%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.452.592.602.6541%39%38%38%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Monterrey (Visit)

Prediction 38.02%2.63fair odd
EV -4.94%
Edge -1.98%
Kelly -3.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.27%37.98%38.02%38.75%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.272.412.412.5044%42%41%40%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 26.74%3.74fair odd
EV -3.73%
Edge -1.04%
Kelly -1.43%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.84%26.90%26.71%28.61%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.103.373.423.6032%30%29%28%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet2.65I 37.74%NM 35.76%EV -6.63%E -2.50%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.91%EV -4.94%E -1.98%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -3.73%E -1.04%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-12 23:14
FanDuel2.65I 37.74%NM 35.49%EV -6.63%E -2.50%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -6.84%E -2.79%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -3.73%E -1.04%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-12 22:12
Fanatics2.65I 37.74%NM 35.23%EV -6.63%E -2.50%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -6.84%E -2.79%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-12 23:59
1xBet2.65I 37.74%NM 34.95%EV -6.63%E -2.50%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 37.96%EV -7.22%E -2.96%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.08%EV -8.54%E -2.50%K -3.53%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-12 22:24
Marathon Bet2.65I 37.74%NM 34.95%EV -6.63%E -2.50%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 37.96%EV -7.22%E -2.96%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.08%EV -8.54%E -2.50%K -3.53%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-12 22:19
NordicBet2.62I 38.17%NM 35.51%EV -7.69%E -2.93%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.52%EV -5.70%E -2.30%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.97%EV -7.74%E -2.24%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-13 01:24
Betsson2.62I 38.17%NM 35.51%EV -7.69%E -2.93%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.52%EV -5.70%E -2.30%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.97%EV -7.74%E -2.24%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-13 01:24
SportsBet2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -8.39%E -3.23%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -6.84%E -2.79%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -3.73%E -1.04%K -1.43%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-12 22:14
William Hill2.60I 38.46%NM 34.12%EV -8.39%E -3.23%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.27%EV -9.50%E -3.99%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.61%EV -17.10%E -5.52%K -8.14%G +0.000%12.7%2026-07-12 22:24
888sport2.60I 38.46%NM 34.12%EV -8.39%E -3.23%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.27%EV -9.50%E -3.99%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.61%EV -17.10%E -5.52%K -8.14%G +0.000%12.7%2026-07-12 22:19
888sport (SE)2.60I 38.46%NM 34.12%EV -8.39%E -3.23%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.27%EV -9.50%E -3.99%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.61%EV -17.10%E -5.52%K -8.14%G +0.000%12.7%2026-07-12 22:20
Mr Green (SE)2.60I 38.46%NM 34.12%EV -8.39%E -3.23%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.27%EV -9.50%E -3.99%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.61%EV -17.10%E -5.52%K -8.14%G +0.000%12.7%2026-07-12 22:19
LeoVegas2.55I 39.22%NM 35.27%EV -10.15%E -3.98%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.27%EV -10.64%E -4.53%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.45%EV -9.08%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-12 20:19
Betclic (FR)2.53I 39.53%NM 34.76%EV -10.86%E -4.29%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 38.75%EV -13.69%E -6.03%K -10.78%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 26.49%EV -11.22%E -3.38%K -4.83%G +0.000%13.7%2026-07-12 20:19
Paddy Power2.50I 40.00%NM 36.17%EV -11.92%E -4.77%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.99%EV -9.50%E -3.99%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.84%EV -6.40%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-12 22:14
Sky Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 35.47%EV -13.68%E -5.58%K -9.43%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.79%EV -12.55%E -5.45%K -9.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.74%EV -13.09%E -4.03%K -5.82%G +0.000%15.1%2026-07-12 22:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-12 20:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-12 20:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-12 20:54