Language:English
Necaxa v Monterrey
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Necaxa (Local)
Prediction 27.64%3.62fair odd
EV +10.82%
Edge +2.70%
Kelly +3.60%
Growth +0.389%
assuming max odds 4.01
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.94%28.04%27.51%32.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.843.283.254.0135.21%30.46%30.77%24.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Monterrey (Visit)
Prediction 46.58%2.15fair odd
EV +4.81%
Edge +2.14%
Kelly +3.85%
Growth +0.185%
assuming max odds 2.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.19%46.30%46.67%49.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.902.001.982.2552.63%50.01%50.51%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 25.78%3.88fair odd
EV +1.06%
Edge +0.271%
Kelly +0.363%
Growth +0.004%
assuming max odds 3.92
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.59%25.67%25.82%26.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.603.603.9230.30%27.81%27.78%25.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Necaxa (Local): 27.64%; Monterrey (Visit): 46.58%; Draw: 25.78%. For Necaxa (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.62. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.01, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.82%.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.01I 24.94%NM 23.94%EV +10.82%E +2.70%K +3.60%G +0.389% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.75%EV -10.09%E -5.23%K -10.85%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.31%EV -5.90%E -1.62%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-07-26 22:55 |
| LowVig.ag | 3.64I 27.47%NM 26.55%EV +0.596%E +0.164%K +0.226%G +0.001% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.80%EV -7.77%E -3.92%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 3.92I 25.51%NM 24.65%EV +1.06%E +0.271%K +0.363%G +0.004% | 3.5% | 2026-07-26 22:55 |
| BetOnline.ag | 3.64I 27.47%NM 26.55%EV +0.596%E +0.164%K +0.226%G +0.001% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.80%EV -7.77%E -3.92%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 3.92I 25.51%NM 24.65%EV +1.06%E +0.271%K +0.363%G +0.004% | 3.5% | 2026-07-26 22:55 |
| BetUS | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -0.509%E -0.141%K -0.196%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.86%EV -11.03%E -5.77%K -12.12%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -4.61%E -1.25%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-26 22:55 |
| Pinnacle | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.20%EV -1.89%E -0.533%K -0.742%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.33%EV -4.97%E -2.44%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 3.79I 26.39%NM 25.47%EV -2.29%E -0.604%K -0.821%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-07-26 22:45 |
| FanDuel | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -3.27%E -0.935%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -9.16%E -4.70%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -2.03%E -0.535%K -0.726%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-26 22:55 |
| GTbets | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.52%EV -3.27%E -0.935%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.11%EV -8.23%E -4.18%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 3.52I 28.41%NM 26.37%EV -9.25%E -2.63%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-07-26 22:55 |
| DraftKings | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.34%EV -4.65%E -1.35%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.16%EV -6.83%E -3.42%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.49%EV -4.61%E -1.25%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-26 22:49 |
| SportsBet | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -4.65%E -1.35%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 47.83%EV -8.70%E -4.44%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -3.32%E -0.886%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-26 22:55 |
| betano_uk | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.04%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -6.83%E -3.42%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -4.61%E -1.25%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-26 22:49 |
| Bet Victor | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.04%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -6.83%E -3.42%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -4.61%E -1.25%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-26 22:49 |
| Betway | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -6.04%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -9.16%E -4.70%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -2.03%E -0.535%K -0.726%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-26 22:54 |
| Unibet (UK) | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.04%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -6.83%E -3.42%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -7.19%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-26 22:55 |
| Tipico (DE) | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.17%EV -6.04%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.86%EV -10.09%E -5.23%K -10.85%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -4.61%E -1.25%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-26 22:50 |
| Everygame | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV -6.04%E -1.78%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.92%EV -11.49%E -6.05%K -12.77%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -7.19%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-07-26 22:55 |
| Coolbet | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.36%EV -7.42%E -2.21%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.24%EV -2.18%E -1.04%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.39%EV -7.19%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-26 22:35 |
| Fanatics | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -8.80%E -2.67%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -4.50%E -2.20%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -7.19%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-26 22:50 |
| LeoVegas | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -8.80%E -2.67%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.34%EV -7.77%E -3.92%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -8.48%E -2.39%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-26 22:55 |
| Paddy Power | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.44%EV -8.80%E -2.67%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.41%EV -11.03%E -5.77%K -12.12%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.15%EV -7.19%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-07-26 22:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.44%EV -8.80%E -2.67%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.41%EV -11.03%E -5.77%K -12.12%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.15%EV -7.19%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-07-26 22:50 |
| Betclic (FR) | 3.27I 30.58%NM 27.33%EV -9.63%E -2.94%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 46.54%EV -10.56%E -5.50%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 3.42I 29.24%NM 26.13%EV -11.83%E -3.46%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-07-26 22:55 |
| ATG (SE) | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.31%EV -10.18%E -3.13%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -1.24%E -0.587%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.75%EV -4.61%E -1.25%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-26 22:20 |
| Svenska Spel | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.31%EV -10.18%E -3.13%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -1.24%E -0.587%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.75%EV -4.61%E -1.25%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-26 22:20 |
| Fliff | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.92%EV -10.18%E -3.13%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.53%EV -9.16%E -4.70%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.56%EV -8.48%E -2.39%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-07-26 22:55 |
| Neds | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.60%EV -10.18%E -3.13%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.01%EV -9.16%E -4.70%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -12.35%E -3.63%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-07-26 22:50 |
| Sky Bet | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -10.18%E -3.13%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.87%EV -11.03%E -5.77%K -12.12%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -9.77%E -2.79%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-07-26 22:55 |
| William Hill | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.13%EV -10.18%E -3.13%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.16%EV -11.03%E -5.77%K -12.12%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.72%EV -14.92%E -4.52%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-07-26 22:54 |
| 888sport | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.13%EV -10.18%E -3.13%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.16%EV -11.03%E -5.77%K -12.12%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.72%EV -14.92%E -4.52%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-07-26 22:50 |
| 888sport (SE) | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.13%EV -10.18%E -3.13%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.16%EV -11.03%E -5.77%K -12.12%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.72%EV -14.92%E -4.52%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-07-26 22:55 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.13%EV -10.18%E -3.13%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.16%EV -11.03%E -5.77%K -12.12%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.72%EV -14.92%E -4.52%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-07-26 22:55 |
| Bet Right | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.63%EV -11.56%E -3.61%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.27%EV -7.77%E -3.92%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.10%EV -5.90%E -1.62%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-07-26 22:55 |
| NordicBet | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -12.95%E -4.11%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.05%EV -1.24%E -0.587%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -8.48%E -2.39%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-26 22:50 |
| Betsson | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -12.95%E -4.11%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.05%EV -1.24%E -0.587%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -8.48%E -2.39%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-26 22:55 |
| Grosvenor | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -12.95%E -4.11%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.96%EV -3.57%E -1.73%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.50%EV -5.90%E -1.62%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-26 22:20 |
| Unibet (NL) | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -12.95%E -4.11%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.96%EV -3.57%E -1.73%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.50%EV -5.90%E -1.62%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-26 22:20 |
| Unibet | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -12.95%E -4.11%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.96%EV -3.57%E -1.73%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.50%EV -5.90%E -1.62%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-26 22:20 |
| Casumo | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -12.95%E -4.11%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.96%EV -3.57%E -1.73%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.50%EV -5.90%E -1.62%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-26 22:20 |
| Unibet (SE) | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -12.95%E -4.11%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.96%EV -3.57%E -1.73%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.50%EV -5.90%E -1.62%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-26 22:20 |
| betPARX | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.54%EV -12.95%E -4.11%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.96%EV -3.57%E -1.73%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.50%EV -5.90%E -1.62%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-26 22:20 |
| BetRivers | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.31%EV -12.95%E -4.11%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.04%EV -4.50%E -2.20%K -4.29%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -7.19%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-26 22:20 |
| PlayUp | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -14.33%E -4.62%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.07%EV -2.18%E -1.04%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.07%EV -8.48%E -2.39%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-26 22:55 |
| TABtouch | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -14.33%E -4.62%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 44.95%EV -4.97%E -2.44%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.47%EV -7.19%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-07-26 22:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.34%EV -14.33%E -4.62%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.03%EV -5.90%E -2.92%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.62%EV -8.48%E -2.39%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-07-26 22:20 |
| LiveScore Bet | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.34%EV -14.33%E -4.62%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.03%EV -5.90%E -2.92%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.62%EV -8.48%E -2.39%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-07-26 22:20 |
| betfred_uk | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -14.33%E -4.62%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.07%EV -9.16%E -4.70%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -7.19%E -2.00%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-07-26 22:55 |
| NetBet (FR) | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.11%EV -14.33%E -4.62%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 45.87%EV -11.49%E -6.05%K -12.77%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.02%EV -13.63%E -4.07%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 14.7% | 2026-07-26 22:50 |
| Virgin Bet | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.44%EV -15.71%E -5.15%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.90%EV -6.83%E -3.42%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.66%EV -9.77%E -2.79%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-07-26 22:20 |
| PMU (FR) | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.34%EV -17.09%E -5.70%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.14%EV -9.16%E -4.70%K -9.65%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.52%EV -11.06%E -3.20%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-07-26 22:20 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.84I 35.21%NM 32.63%EV -21.51%E -7.57%K -11.69%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.19%EV +4.81%E +2.14%K +3.85%G +0.185% | 3.54I 28.25%NM 26.18%EV -8.74%E -2.47%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-20 13:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.87% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.27% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.86% | 0.6% | 2026-07-26 22:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.87% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.27% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.86% | 0.6% | 2026-07-26 22:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.87% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.27% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.86% | 0.6% | 2026-07-26 22:55 |
| Matchbook | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.87% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.27% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.86% | 0.6% | 2026-07-26 22:55 |
| Smarkets | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.06% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.94% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.00% | 1.3% | 2026-07-26 22:55 |
| Kalshi | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.49% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.01% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.50% | 2.0% | 2026-07-26 22:50 |