The School of OddsGuadalajara v Toluca
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Guadalajara (Local)
Prediction 48.14%2.08fair odd
EV -0.831%
Edge -0.403%
Kelly -0.784%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.06
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.90%48.09%48.14%49.79%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.781.941.952.0656.18%51.51%51.28%48.54%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Toluca (Visit)
Prediction 25.86%3.87fair odd
EV +1.64%
Edge +0.416%
Kelly +0.559%
Growth +0.009%
assuming max odds 3.93
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.45%25.95%25.93%28.32%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.103.483.503.9332.26%28.76%28.57%25.45%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Draw
Prediction 26.00%3.85fair odd
EV -1.21%
Edge -0.318%
Kelly -0.431%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.87%25.96%25.93%26.87%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.303.553.563.8030.30%28.13%28.05%26.32%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.79%EV -7.09%E -3.67%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 3.93I 25.45%NM 24.45%EV +1.64%E +0.416%K +0.559%G +0.009% | 3.73I 26.81%NM 25.76%EV -3.03%E -0.812%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-07-19 01:05 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.79%EV -4.68%E -2.36%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 3.86I 25.91%NM 25.03%EV -0.174%E -0.045%K -0.061%G +0.000% | 3.69I 27.10%NM 26.18%EV -4.07%E -1.10%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-07-19 01:05 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.79%EV -4.68%E -2.36%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 3.86I 25.91%NM 25.03%EV -0.174%E -0.045%K -0.061%G +0.000% | 3.69I 27.10%NM 26.18%EV -4.07%E -1.10%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-07-19 01:05 |
| Pinnacle | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.03%EV -3.72%E -1.86%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 3.82I 26.18%NM 25.14%EV -1.21%E -0.316%K -0.428%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 26.83%EV -6.93%E -1.93%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-07-19 00:55 |
| BetUS | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.69%EV -3.72%E -1.86%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.44%EV -3.02%E -0.805%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.87%EV -7.71%E -2.17%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-19 00:40 |
| Bet Victor | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -8.53%E -4.49%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -4.31%E -1.17%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -3.81%E -1.03%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-19 01:05 |
| betano_uk | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -8.53%E -4.49%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -4.31%E -1.17%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -3.81%E -1.03%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-19 01:05 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.24%EV -7.57%E -3.94%K -8.23%G +0.000% | 3.66I 27.32%NM 25.30%EV -5.35%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -9.01%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-19 01:04 |
| Coolbet | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.23%EV -7.57%E -3.94%K -8.23%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.90%EV -5.60%E -1.54%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.87%EV -1.21%E -0.318%K -0.431%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-19 00:29 |
| Everygame | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.09%EV -8.53%E -4.49%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.03%EV -5.60%E -1.54%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -11.61%E -3.41%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-07-19 01:05 |
| GTbets | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.77%EV -7.09%E -3.67%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 3.63I 27.55%NM 25.93%EV -6.12%E -1.69%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.72I 26.88%NM 25.30%EV -3.29%E -0.884%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-19 00:25 |
| DraftKings | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.82%EV -6.13%E -3.14%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -6.90%E -1.92%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -7.71%E -2.17%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-19 01:05 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.26%EV -7.09%E -3.67%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -6.90%E -1.92%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -6.41%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-19 00:30 |
| Betway | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -6.13%E -3.14%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -6.90%E -1.92%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -9.01%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-19 00:40 |
| NordicBet | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.27%EV -4.68%E -2.36%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.36%EV -8.19%E -2.31%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.36%EV -7.71%E -2.17%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-19 01:05 |
| Betsson | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.27%EV -4.68%E -2.36%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.36%EV -8.19%E -2.31%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.36%EV -7.71%E -2.17%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-19 01:05 |
| PlayUp | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.47%EV -6.13%E -3.14%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -8.19%E -2.31%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.45%EV -9.01%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-19 01:05 |
| FanDuel | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV -6.13%E -3.14%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -9.48%E -2.71%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -3.81%E -1.03%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-19 00:14 |
| SportsBet | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.11%EV -6.61%E -3.41%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -9.48%E -2.71%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -3.81%E -1.03%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-19 00:35 |
| Fanatics | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -6.13%E -3.14%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -9.48%E -2.71%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -6.41%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-19 00:15 |
| LeoVegas | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.29%EV -8.53%E -4.49%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -9.48%E -2.71%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -6.41%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-19 00:40 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.29%EV -8.53%E -4.49%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -9.48%E -2.71%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -6.41%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-19 00:20 |
| 888sport | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.87%EV -10.94%E -5.91%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -9.48%E -2.71%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -14.21%E -4.31%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-07-19 01:05 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.87%EV -10.94%E -5.91%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -9.48%E -2.71%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -14.21%E -4.31%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-07-19 01:05 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.87%EV -10.94%E -5.91%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -9.48%E -2.71%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -14.21%E -4.31%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-07-19 01:05 |
| William Hill | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.87%EV -10.94%E -5.91%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -9.48%E -2.71%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -14.21%E -4.31%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-07-19 01:05 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.84I 54.35%NM 48.64%EV -11.42%E -6.21%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 3.47I 28.82%NM 25.79%EV -10.26%E -2.96%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.57%EV -9.01%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-07-19 00:40 |
| Paddy Power | 1.87I 53.48%NM 47.98%EV -9.98%E -5.34%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -12.07%E -3.55%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.63%EV -9.01%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-07-19 00:35 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.87I 53.48%NM 47.98%EV -9.98%E -5.34%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -12.07%E -3.55%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.63%EV -9.01%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-07-19 00:55 |
| NetBet (FR) | 1.78I 56.18%NM 48.66%EV -14.31%E -8.04%K -18.35%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.48%EV -12.07%E -3.55%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 25.86%EV -12.91%E -3.85%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 15.4% | 2026-07-19 01:03 |
| Svenska Spel | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.05%EV -0.831%E -0.403%K -0.784%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.32%EV -13.36%E -3.99%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.64%EV -3.81%E -1.03%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-19 00:55 |
| ATG (SE) | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.05%EV -0.831%E -0.403%K -0.784%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.32%EV -13.36%E -3.99%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.64%EV -3.81%E -1.03%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-19 00:55 |
| Bet Right | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.09%EV -6.13%E -3.14%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.41%EV -13.36%E -3.99%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.51%EV -6.41%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-07-19 00:20 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.01%EV -2.76%E -1.36%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -14.66%E -4.44%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.82%EV -6.41%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-19 00:55 |
| Casumo | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.01%EV -2.76%E -1.36%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -14.66%E -4.44%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.82%EV -6.41%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-19 00:55 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.01%EV -2.76%E -1.36%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -14.66%E -4.44%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.82%EV -6.41%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-19 00:55 |
| Grosvenor | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.01%EV -2.76%E -1.36%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -14.66%E -4.44%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.82%EV -6.41%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-19 00:55 |
| Unibet | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.01%EV -2.76%E -1.36%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -14.66%E -4.44%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.82%EV -6.41%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-19 00:55 |
| betPARX | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.01%EV -2.76%E -1.36%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -14.66%E -4.44%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.82%EV -6.41%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-19 00:55 |
| BetRivers | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -3.72%E -1.86%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -14.66%E -4.44%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -6.41%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-19 00:54 |
| Neds | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.72%EV -8.05%E -4.22%K -8.85%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -14.66%E -4.44%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.24%EV -11.61%E -3.41%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-07-19 00:15 |
| Sky Bet | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.51%EV -10.94%E -5.91%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.64%EV -14.66%E -4.44%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.85%EV -11.61%E -3.41%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-07-19 00:35 |
| TABtouch | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.90%EV -3.72%E -1.86%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -15.95%E -4.91%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -7.71%E -2.17%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-07-19 00:55 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.27%EV -5.16%E -2.62%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -15.95%E -4.91%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.68%EV -7.71%E -2.17%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-07-19 00:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.40%EV -5.65%E -2.88%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -15.95%E -4.91%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.62%EV -7.71%E -2.17%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-19 00:50 |
| betfred_uk | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.36%EV -6.13%E -3.14%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -15.95%E -4.91%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -9.01%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-07-19 00:20 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.16%EV -6.13%E -3.14%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -17.24%E -5.39%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.72%EV -9.01%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-07-19 00:50 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.91I 52.36%NM 45.92%EV -8.05%E -4.22%K -8.85%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.29%EV -19.83%E -6.40%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.79%EV -11.61%E -3.41%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-07-19 00:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.11% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.77% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.12% | 0.8% | 2026-07-19 01:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.11% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.77% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.12% | 0.8% | 2026-07-19 01:05 |
| Matchbook | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.11% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.77% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.12% | 0.8% | 2026-07-19 01:05 |
| Smarkets | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.79% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.94% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.27% | 1.5% | 2026-07-19 01:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.79% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.94% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.27% | 1.5% | 2026-07-19 01:05 |
| Kalshi | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.52% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.22% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.26% | 3.1% | 2026-07-19 01:05 |