The School of OddsGuadalajara v Toluca
Head to Head
Option 1: Guadalajara (Local)
Odds
2.1247.17%Min
2.2045.39%Mean
2.2344.94%Median
2.2544.44%Max
Consensus probabilities
40.69%2.458Min
42.40%2.358Max
41.65%2.401Mean
41.65%2.401Median
41.65%2.401IQM
41.65%2.401Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 2.25 under the IQM model: 41.65%
EV -6.28%Edge -2.79%Kelly -5.03%Growth +0.000%
Option 2: Toluca (Visit)
Odds
2.7037.04%Min
2.8634.99%Mean
2.8834.78%Median
3.0033.33%Max
Consensus probabilities
31.34%3.190Min
32.54%3.073Max
32.32%3.094Mean
32.32%3.094Median
32.32%3.094IQM
32.32%3.094Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 3.00 under the IQM model: 32.32%
EV -3.05%Edge -1.02%Kelly -1.53%Growth +0.000%
Option 3: Draw
Odds
3.2530.77%Min
3.4828.71%Mean
3.5028.57%Median
3.6027.78%Max
Consensus probabilities
26.03%3.841Min
26.92%3.715Max
26.03%3.841Mean
26.03%3.841Median
26.03%3.841IQM
26.03%3.841Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 3.60 under the IQM model: 26.03%
EV -6.28%Edge -1.75%Kelly -2.42%Growth +0.000%
Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)
| Bookmaker | Guadalajara (Local) ▼ | Toluca (Visit) | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.25I 44.44% NM 41.79%EV -6.28% E -2.79% K -5.03% G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33% NM 31.34%EV -3.05% E -1.02% K -1.53% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 26.87%EV -8.89% E -2.54% K -3.55% G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-05 16:44 |
| SportsBet | 2.25I 44.44% NM 41.65%EV -6.28% E -2.79% K -5.03% G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48% NM 32.32%EV -6.28% E -2.17% K -3.31% G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78% NM 26.03%EV -6.28% E -1.75% K -2.42% G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-05 16:45 |
| FanDuel | 2.25I 44.44% NM 41.65%EV -6.28% E -2.79% K -5.03% G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48% NM 32.32%EV -6.28% E -2.17% K -3.31% G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78% NM 26.03%EV -6.28% E -1.75% K -2.42% G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-05 16:43 |
| Paddy Power | 2.20I 45.45% NM 41.42%EV -8.37% E -3.80% K -6.97% G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71% NM 32.54%EV -9.52% E -3.40% K -5.29% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 26.04%EV -8.89% E -2.54% K -3.55% G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-07-05 16:45 |
| Sky Bet | 2.15I 46.51% NM 40.69%EV -10.45% E -4.86% K -9.09% G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04% NM 32.40%EV -12.75% E -4.72% K -7.50% G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77% NM 26.92%EV -15.39% E -4.74% K -6.84% G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-07-05 17:29 |
| LeoVegas | 2.12I 47.17% NM 42.40%EV -11.70% E -5.52% K -10.44% G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09% NM 31.54%EV -7.90% E -2.77% K -4.27% G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99% NM 26.06%EV -10.19% E -2.95% K -4.16% G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-07-05 16:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth