A Escola das Odds

Guadalajara v Toluca

Início: 2026-07-19 01:10 UTC

Final: Guadalajara 0–2 Toluca

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

48 casas de apostas (15 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: IQM

Guadalajara (Local)

Previsão 48.14%2.08odd justa
EV -0.831%
Vantagem -0.403%
Kelly -0.784%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.06

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
45.90%48.09%48.14%49.79%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
1.781.941.952.0656.18%51.51%51.28%48.54%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Toluca (Visitante)

Previsão 25.86%3.87odd justa
EV +1.64%
Vantagem +0.416%
Kelly +0.559%
Crescimento +0.009%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.93

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
24.45%25.95%25.93%28.32%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
3.103.483.503.9332.26%28.76%28.57%25.45%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Empate

Previsão 26.00%3.85odd justa
EV -1.21%
Vantagem -0.318%
Kelly -0.431%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.80

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
24.87%25.96%25.93%26.87%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
3.303.553.563.8030.30%28.13%28.05%26.32%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Odds das casas de apostas (48 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
1xBet1.93I 51.81%NM 49.79%EV -7.09%E -3.67%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.45%EV +1.64%E +0.416%K +0.559%G +0.009%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.76%EV -3.03%E -0.812%K -1.11%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-19 01:05
LowVig.ag1.98I 50.51%NM 48.79%EV -4.68%E -2.36%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 25.03%EV -0.174%E -0.045%K -0.061%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 26.18%EV -4.07%E -1.10%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.5%2026-07-19 01:05
BetOnline.ag1.98I 50.51%NM 48.79%EV -4.68%E -2.36%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 25.03%EV -0.174%E -0.045%K -0.061%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 26.18%EV -4.07%E -1.10%K -1.51%G +0.000%3.5%2026-07-19 01:05
Pinnacle2.00I 50.00%NM 48.03%EV -3.72%E -1.86%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.14%EV -1.21%E -0.316%K -0.428%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.83%EV -6.93%E -1.93%K -2.68%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-19 00:55
BetUS2.00I 50.00%NM 47.69%EV -3.72%E -1.86%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.44%EV -3.02%E -0.805%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.87%EV -7.71%E -2.17%K -3.02%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-19 00:40
Bet Victor1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -8.53%E -4.49%K -9.48%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -4.31%E -1.17%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -3.81%E -1.03%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-19 01:05
betano_uk1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -8.53%E -4.49%K -9.48%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -4.31%E -1.17%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -3.81%E -1.03%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-19 01:05
Marathon Bet1.92I 52.08%NM 48.24%EV -7.57%E -3.94%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 25.30%EV -5.35%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -9.01%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-19 01:04
Coolbet1.92I 52.08%NM 49.23%EV -7.57%E -3.94%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.90%EV -5.60%E -1.54%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.87%EV -1.21%E -0.318%K -0.431%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-19 00:29
Everygame1.90I 52.63%NM 48.09%EV -8.53%E -4.49%K -9.48%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.03%EV -5.60%E -1.54%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -11.61%E -3.41%K -4.84%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-19 01:05
GTbets1.93I 51.81%NM 48.77%EV -7.09%E -3.67%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 25.93%EV -6.12%E -1.69%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.30%EV -3.29%E -0.884%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-19 00:25
DraftKings1.95I 51.28%NM 47.82%EV -6.13%E -3.14%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -6.90%E -1.92%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -7.71%E -2.17%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-19 01:05
Unibet (UK)1.93I 51.81%NM 48.26%EV -7.09%E -3.67%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -6.90%E -1.92%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -6.41%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-19 00:30
Betway1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -6.13%E -3.14%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -6.90%E -1.92%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -9.01%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-19 00:40
NordicBet1.98I 50.51%NM 47.27%EV -4.68%E -2.36%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.36%EV -8.19%E -2.31%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.36%EV -7.71%E -2.17%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-19 01:05
Betsson1.98I 50.51%NM 47.27%EV -4.68%E -2.36%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.36%EV -8.19%E -2.31%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.36%EV -7.71%E -2.17%K -3.02%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-19 01:05
PlayUp1.95I 51.28%NM 47.47%EV -6.13%E -3.14%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -8.19%E -2.31%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.45%EV -9.01%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-19 01:05
FanDuel1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV -6.13%E -3.14%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -9.48%E -2.71%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -3.81%E -1.03%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-19 00:14
SportsBet1.94I 51.55%NM 48.11%EV -6.61%E -3.41%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -9.48%E -2.71%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -3.81%E -1.03%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-19 00:35
Fanatics1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -6.13%E -3.14%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -9.48%E -2.71%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -6.41%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-19 00:15
LeoVegas1.90I 52.63%NM 48.29%EV -8.53%E -4.49%K -9.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -9.48%E -2.71%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -6.41%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-19 00:40
Tipico (DE)1.90I 52.63%NM 48.29%EV -8.53%E -4.49%K -9.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -9.48%E -2.71%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -6.41%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-19 00:20
888sport1.85I 54.05%NM 47.87%EV -10.94%E -5.91%K -12.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -9.48%E -2.71%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -14.21%E -4.31%K -6.18%G +0.000%12.9%2026-07-19 01:05
Mr Green (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 47.87%EV -10.94%E -5.91%K -12.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -9.48%E -2.71%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -14.21%E -4.31%K -6.18%G +0.000%12.9%2026-07-19 01:05
888sport (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 47.87%EV -10.94%E -5.91%K -12.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -9.48%E -2.71%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -14.21%E -4.31%K -6.18%G +0.000%12.9%2026-07-19 01:05
William Hill1.85I 54.05%NM 47.87%EV -10.94%E -5.91%K -12.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -9.48%E -2.71%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -14.21%E -4.31%K -6.18%G +0.000%12.9%2026-07-19 01:05
Betclic (FR)1.84I 54.35%NM 48.64%EV -11.42%E -6.21%K -13.60%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 25.79%EV -10.26%E -2.96%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.57%EV -9.01%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-19 00:40
Paddy Power1.87I 53.48%NM 47.98%EV -9.98%E -5.34%K -11.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -12.07%E -3.55%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.63%EV -9.01%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-19 00:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.87I 53.48%NM 47.98%EV -9.98%E -5.34%K -11.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -12.07%E -3.55%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.63%EV -9.01%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-19 00:55
NetBet (FR)1.78I 56.18%NM 48.66%EV -14.31%E -8.04%K -18.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.48%EV -12.07%E -3.55%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.86%EV -12.91%E -3.85%K -5.49%G +0.000%15.4%2026-07-19 01:03
Svenska Spel2.06I 48.54%NM 46.05%EV -0.831%E -0.403%K -0.784%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.32%EV -13.36%E -3.99%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.64%EV -3.81%E -1.03%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-19 00:55
ATG (SE)2.06I 48.54%NM 46.05%EV -0.831%E -0.403%K -0.784%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.32%EV -13.36%E -3.99%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.64%EV -3.81%E -1.03%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-19 00:55
Bet Right1.95I 51.28%NM 47.09%EV -6.13%E -3.14%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.41%EV -13.36%E -3.99%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.51%EV -6.41%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-19 00:20
Unibet (NL)2.02I 49.50%NM 46.01%EV -2.76%E -1.36%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -14.66%E -4.44%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.82%EV -6.41%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-19 00:55
Casumo2.02I 49.50%NM 46.01%EV -2.76%E -1.36%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -14.66%E -4.44%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.82%EV -6.41%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-19 00:55
Unibet (SE)2.02I 49.50%NM 46.01%EV -2.76%E -1.36%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -14.66%E -4.44%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.82%EV -6.41%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-19 00:55
Grosvenor2.02I 49.50%NM 46.01%EV -2.76%E -1.36%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -14.66%E -4.44%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.82%EV -6.41%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-19 00:55
Unibet2.02I 49.50%NM 46.01%EV -2.76%E -1.36%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -14.66%E -4.44%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.82%EV -6.41%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-19 00:55
betPARX2.02I 49.50%NM 46.01%EV -2.76%E -1.36%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -14.66%E -4.44%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.82%EV -6.41%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-19 00:55
BetRivers2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -3.72%E -1.86%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -14.66%E -4.44%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -6.41%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-19 00:54
Neds1.91I 52.36%NM 46.72%EV -8.05%E -4.22%K -8.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -14.66%E -4.44%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.24%EV -11.61%E -3.41%K -4.84%G +0.000%12.1%2026-07-19 00:15
Sky Bet1.85I 54.05%NM 47.51%EV -10.94%E -5.91%K -12.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.64%EV -14.66%E -4.44%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.85%EV -11.61%E -3.41%K -4.84%G +0.000%13.8%2026-07-19 00:35
TABtouch2.00I 50.00%NM 45.90%EV -3.72%E -1.86%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -15.95%E -4.91%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -7.71%E -2.17%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-19 00:55
LiveScore Bet1.97I 50.76%NM 46.27%EV -5.16%E -2.62%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -15.95%E -4.91%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.68%EV -7.71%E -2.17%K -3.02%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-19 00:55
LeoVegas (SE)1.96I 51.02%NM 46.40%EV -5.65%E -2.88%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -15.95%E -4.91%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.62%EV -7.71%E -2.17%K -3.02%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-19 00:50
betfred_uk1.95I 51.28%NM 46.36%EV -6.13%E -3.14%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -15.95%E -4.91%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -9.01%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-19 00:20
Virgin Bet1.95I 51.28%NM 46.16%EV -6.13%E -3.14%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -17.24%E -5.39%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.72%EV -9.01%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-19 00:50
PMU (FR)1.91I 52.36%NM 45.92%EV -8.05%E -4.22%K -8.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.29%EV -19.83%E -6.40%K -9.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.79%EV -11.61%E -3.41%K -4.84%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-19 00:55
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.02I 49.50%NM 49.11%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.77%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.12%0.8%2026-07-19 01:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.02I 49.50%NM 49.11%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.77%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.12%0.8%2026-07-19 01:05
Matchbook2.02I 49.50%NM 49.11%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.77%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.12%0.8%2026-07-19 01:05
Smarkets2.02I 49.50%NM 48.79%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.94%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.27%1.5%2026-07-19 01:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.02I 49.50%NM 48.79%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.94%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.27%1.5%2026-07-19 01:05
Kalshi1.92I 52.08%NM 50.52%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.22%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.26%3.1%2026-07-19 01:05