La escuela de los momiosGuadalajara v Toluca
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Guadalajara (Local)
Predicción 48.14%2.08momio equitativo
EV -0.831%
Ventaja -0.403%
Kelly -0.784%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.06
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
45.90%48.09%48.14%49.79%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.781.941.952.0656.18%51.51%51.28%48.54%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Toluca (Visitante)
Predicción 25.86%3.87momio equitativo
EV +1.64%
Ventaja +0.416%
Kelly +0.559%
Crecimiento +0.009%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.93
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.45%25.95%25.93%28.32%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.483.503.9332.26%28.76%28.57%25.45%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 26.00%3.85momio equitativo
EV -1.21%
Ventaja -0.318%
Kelly -0.431%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.80
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.87%25.96%25.93%26.87%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.303.553.563.8030.30%28.13%28.05%26.32%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (48 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.79%EV -7.09%E -3.67%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 3.93I 25.45%NM 24.45%EV +1.64%E +0.416%K +0.559%G +0.009% | 3.73I 26.81%NM 25.76%EV -3.03%E -0.812%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-07-19 01:05 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.79%EV -4.68%E -2.36%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 3.86I 25.91%NM 25.03%EV -0.174%E -0.045%K -0.061%G +0.000% | 3.69I 27.10%NM 26.18%EV -4.07%E -1.10%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-07-19 01:05 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.79%EV -4.68%E -2.36%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 3.86I 25.91%NM 25.03%EV -0.174%E -0.045%K -0.061%G +0.000% | 3.69I 27.10%NM 26.18%EV -4.07%E -1.10%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-07-19 01:05 |
| Pinnacle | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.03%EV -3.72%E -1.86%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 3.82I 26.18%NM 25.14%EV -1.21%E -0.316%K -0.428%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 26.83%EV -6.93%E -1.93%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-07-19 00:55 |
| BetUS | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.69%EV -3.72%E -1.86%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.44%EV -3.02%E -0.805%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.87%EV -7.71%E -2.17%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-19 00:40 |
| Bet Victor | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -8.53%E -4.49%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -4.31%E -1.17%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -3.81%E -1.03%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-19 01:05 |
| betano_uk | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -8.53%E -4.49%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -4.31%E -1.17%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -3.81%E -1.03%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-19 01:05 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.24%EV -7.57%E -3.94%K -8.23%G +0.000% | 3.66I 27.32%NM 25.30%EV -5.35%E -1.46%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -9.01%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-19 01:04 |
| Coolbet | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.23%EV -7.57%E -3.94%K -8.23%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.90%EV -5.60%E -1.54%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.87%EV -1.21%E -0.318%K -0.431%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-19 00:29 |
| Everygame | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.09%EV -8.53%E -4.49%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.03%EV -5.60%E -1.54%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -11.61%E -3.41%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-07-19 01:05 |
| GTbets | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.77%EV -7.09%E -3.67%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 3.63I 27.55%NM 25.93%EV -6.12%E -1.69%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 3.72I 26.88%NM 25.30%EV -3.29%E -0.884%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-19 00:25 |
| DraftKings | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.82%EV -6.13%E -3.14%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -6.90%E -1.92%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -7.71%E -2.17%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-19 01:05 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.26%EV -7.09%E -3.67%K -7.62%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -6.90%E -1.92%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -6.41%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-07-19 00:30 |
| Betway | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -6.13%E -3.14%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -6.90%E -1.92%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -9.01%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-19 00:40 |
| NordicBet | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.27%EV -4.68%E -2.36%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.36%EV -8.19%E -2.31%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.36%EV -7.71%E -2.17%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-19 01:05 |
| Betsson | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.27%EV -4.68%E -2.36%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.36%EV -8.19%E -2.31%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.36%EV -7.71%E -2.17%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-19 01:05 |
| PlayUp | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.47%EV -6.13%E -3.14%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -8.19%E -2.31%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.45%EV -9.01%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-19 01:05 |
| FanDuel | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV -6.13%E -3.14%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -9.48%E -2.71%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -3.81%E -1.03%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-19 00:14 |
| SportsBet | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.11%EV -6.61%E -3.41%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -9.48%E -2.71%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -3.81%E -1.03%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-19 00:35 |
| Fanatics | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -6.13%E -3.14%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -9.48%E -2.71%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -6.41%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-19 00:15 |
| LeoVegas | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.29%EV -8.53%E -4.49%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -9.48%E -2.71%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -6.41%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-19 00:40 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.29%EV -8.53%E -4.49%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -9.48%E -2.71%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -6.41%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-19 00:20 |
| 888sport | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.87%EV -10.94%E -5.91%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -9.48%E -2.71%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -14.21%E -4.31%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-07-19 01:05 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.87%EV -10.94%E -5.91%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -9.48%E -2.71%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -14.21%E -4.31%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-07-19 01:05 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.87%EV -10.94%E -5.91%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -9.48%E -2.71%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -14.21%E -4.31%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-07-19 01:05 |
| William Hill | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.87%EV -10.94%E -5.91%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -9.48%E -2.71%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -14.21%E -4.31%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-07-19 01:05 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.84I 54.35%NM 48.64%EV -11.42%E -6.21%K -13.60%G +0.000% | 3.47I 28.82%NM 25.79%EV -10.26%E -2.96%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.57%EV -9.01%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-07-19 00:40 |
| Paddy Power | 1.87I 53.48%NM 47.98%EV -9.98%E -5.34%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -12.07%E -3.55%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.63%EV -9.01%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-07-19 00:35 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.87I 53.48%NM 47.98%EV -9.98%E -5.34%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -12.07%E -3.55%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.63%EV -9.01%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-07-19 00:55 |
| NetBet (FR) | 1.78I 56.18%NM 48.66%EV -14.31%E -8.04%K -18.35%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.48%EV -12.07%E -3.55%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 25.86%EV -12.91%E -3.85%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 15.4% | 2026-07-19 01:03 |
| Svenska Spel | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.05%EV -0.831%E -0.403%K -0.784%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.32%EV -13.36%E -3.99%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.64%EV -3.81%E -1.03%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-19 00:55 |
| ATG (SE) | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.05%EV -0.831%E -0.403%K -0.784%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.32%EV -13.36%E -3.99%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.64%EV -3.81%E -1.03%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-19 00:55 |
| Bet Right | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.09%EV -6.13%E -3.14%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.41%EV -13.36%E -3.99%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.51%EV -6.41%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-07-19 00:20 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.01%EV -2.76%E -1.36%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -14.66%E -4.44%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.82%EV -6.41%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-19 00:55 |
| Casumo | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.01%EV -2.76%E -1.36%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -14.66%E -4.44%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.82%EV -6.41%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-19 00:55 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.01%EV -2.76%E -1.36%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -14.66%E -4.44%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.82%EV -6.41%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-19 00:55 |
| Grosvenor | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.01%EV -2.76%E -1.36%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -14.66%E -4.44%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.82%EV -6.41%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-19 00:55 |
| Unibet | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.01%EV -2.76%E -1.36%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -14.66%E -4.44%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.82%EV -6.41%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-19 00:55 |
| betPARX | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.01%EV -2.76%E -1.36%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -14.66%E -4.44%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.82%EV -6.41%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-19 00:55 |
| BetRivers | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -3.72%E -1.86%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -14.66%E -4.44%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -6.41%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-19 00:54 |
| Neds | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.72%EV -8.05%E -4.22%K -8.85%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -14.66%E -4.44%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.24%EV -11.61%E -3.41%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-07-19 00:15 |
| Sky Bet | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.51%EV -10.94%E -5.91%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.64%EV -14.66%E -4.44%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.85%EV -11.61%E -3.41%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-07-19 00:35 |
| TABtouch | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.90%EV -3.72%E -1.86%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -15.95%E -4.91%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -7.71%E -2.17%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-07-19 00:55 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.97I 50.76%NM 46.27%EV -5.16%E -2.62%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -15.95%E -4.91%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.68%EV -7.71%E -2.17%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-07-19 00:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.40%EV -5.65%E -2.88%K -5.88%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -15.95%E -4.91%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.62%EV -7.71%E -2.17%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-19 00:50 |
| betfred_uk | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.36%EV -6.13%E -3.14%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -15.95%E -4.91%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.83%EV -9.01%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-07-19 00:20 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.16%EV -6.13%E -3.14%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -17.24%E -5.39%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.72%EV -9.01%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-07-19 00:50 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.91I 52.36%NM 45.92%EV -8.05%E -4.22%K -8.85%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.29%EV -19.83%E -6.40%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.79%EV -11.61%E -3.41%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-07-19 00:55 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (6)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.11% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.77% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.12% | 0.8% | 2026-07-19 01:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.11% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.77% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.12% | 0.8% | 2026-07-19 01:05 |
| Matchbook | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.11% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.77% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.12% | 0.8% | 2026-07-19 01:05 |
| Smarkets | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.79% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.94% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.27% | 1.5% | 2026-07-19 01:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.79% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.94% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.27% | 1.5% | 2026-07-19 01:05 |
| Kalshi | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.52% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.22% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.26% | 3.1% | 2026-07-19 01:05 |