Language:English
Guadalajara v Pumas
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Guadalajara (Local)
Prediction 61.58%1.62fair odd
EV -3.93%
Edge -2.52%
Kelly -7.02%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.56
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.70%61.61%61.57%63.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.491.491.5671.43%67.10%67.11%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Pumas (Visit)
Prediction 16.98%5.89fair odd
EV +2.71%
Edge +0.448%
Kelly +0.536%
Growth +0.015%
assuming max odds 6.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.59%16.98%16.95%18.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.805.455.506.0520.83%18.36%18.18%16.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 21.44%4.66fair odd
EV +2.49%
Edge +0.521%
Kelly +0.659%
Growth +0.016%
assuming max odds 4.78
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.96%21.41%21.48%22.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.244.204.7825.64%23.58%23.81%20.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Guadalajara (Local): 61.58%; Pumas (Visit): 16.98%; Draw: 21.44%. For Pumas (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.89. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.71%.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.01%EV -3.93%E -2.52%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 5.45I 18.35%NM 17.75%EV -7.48%E -1.37%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 4.78I 20.92%NM 20.24%EV +2.49%E +0.521%K +0.659%G +0.016% | 3.4% | 2026-09-14 00:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.01%EV -3.93%E -2.52%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 5.45I 18.35%NM 17.75%EV -7.48%E -1.37%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 4.78I 20.92%NM 20.24%EV +2.49%E +0.521%K +0.659%G +0.016% | 3.4% | 2026-09-14 00:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.48%EV -5.16%E -3.35%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 5.66I 17.67%NM 17.00%EV -3.91%E -0.691%K -0.839%G +0.000% | 4.69I 21.32%NM 20.52%EV +0.563%E +0.120%K +0.152%G +0.001% | 3.9% | 2026-09-14 00:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.34%EV -10.71%E -7.38%K -23.79%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -6.63%E -1.21%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.96%EV -1.37%E -0.297%K -0.380%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-14 00:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.79%EV -8.24%E -5.53%K -16.82%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.41%EV -3.23%E -0.567%K -0.688%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.79%EV -3.51%E -0.780%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-14 01:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.13%EV -8.86%E -5.99%K -18.46%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.11%EV -1.54%E -0.265%K -0.320%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -3.51%E -0.780%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-14 01:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.76%EV -7.63%E -5.09%K -15.26%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.65%EV -10.87%E -2.07%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -3.51%E -0.780%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-14 00:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.43%EV -3.93%E -2.52%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 5.76I 17.36%NM 16.64%EV -2.21%E -0.384%K -0.465%G +0.000% | 4.37I 22.88%NM 21.93%EV -6.30%E -1.44%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-14 01:01 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.37%EV -7.63%E -5.09%K -15.26%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.13%EV -1.54%E -0.265%K -0.320%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.51%EV -6.73%E -1.55%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-14 00:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.37%EV -7.63%E -5.09%K -15.26%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.13%EV -1.54%E -0.265%K -0.320%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.51%EV -6.73%E -1.55%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-14 00:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.82%EV -7.63%E -5.09%K -15.26%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.86%EV -6.63%E -1.21%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.32%EV -6.73%E -1.55%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-14 00:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.59%EV -8.86%E -5.99%K -18.46%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.11%EV -2.38%E -0.415%K -0.502%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.30%EV -6.73%E -1.55%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-14 01:05 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.80%EV -8.24%E -5.53%K -16.82%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.59%EV +1.86%E +0.310%K +0.372%G +0.007% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.61%EV -7.16%E -1.65%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-14 00:39 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -7.63%E -5.09%K -15.26%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV -2.38%E -0.415%K -0.502%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.55%EV -7.16%E -1.65%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-14 00:55 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -7.63%E -5.09%K -15.26%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV -2.38%E -0.415%K -0.502%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.55%EV -7.16%E -1.65%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-14 00:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.71%EV -11.32%E -7.86%K -25.73%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.77%EV -15.12%E -3.02%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.52%EV -7.16%E -1.65%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-14 00:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.71%EV -11.32%E -7.86%K -25.73%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.77%EV -15.12%E -3.02%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.52%EV -7.16%E -1.65%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-14 01:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.74%EV -3.93%E -2.52%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.23%EV -6.63%E -1.21%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.04%EV -7.80%E -1.81%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-13 23:49 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.20%EV -5.78%E -3.78%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.02%EV -6.63%E -1.21%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.78%EV -7.80%E -1.81%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-14 01:05 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.48%EV -7.63%E -5.09%K -15.26%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.08%EV -8.33%E -1.54%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.45%EV -7.80%E -1.81%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-14 01:01 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.04%EV -8.24%E -5.53%K -16.82%G +0.000% | 5.65I 17.70%NM 16.36%EV -4.08%E -0.722%K -0.878%G +0.000% | 4.28I 23.36%NM 21.60%EV -8.23%E -1.92%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-13 23:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.85%EV -5.16%E -3.35%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 6.05I 16.53%NM 15.74%EV +2.71%E +0.448%K +0.536%G +0.015% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.41%EV -8.87%E -2.09%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-14 01:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.12%EV -8.86%E -5.99%K -18.46%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.99%EV -2.38%E -0.415%K -0.502%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -9.94%E -2.37%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-14 00:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 61.70%EV -8.24%E -5.53%K -16.82%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.42%EV -4.93%E -0.880%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -9.94%E -2.37%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-14 00:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 61.70%EV -8.24%E -5.53%K -16.82%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.42%EV -4.93%E -0.880%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -9.94%E -2.37%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-14 00:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 61.70%EV -8.24%E -5.53%K -16.82%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.42%EV -4.93%E -0.880%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -9.94%E -2.37%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-14 00:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 61.70%EV -8.24%E -5.53%K -16.82%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.42%EV -4.93%E -0.880%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -9.94%E -2.37%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-14 00:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 61.70%EV -8.24%E -5.53%K -16.82%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.42%EV -4.93%E -0.880%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -9.94%E -2.37%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-14 00:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 61.70%EV -8.24%E -5.53%K -16.82%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.42%EV -4.93%E -0.880%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -9.94%E -2.37%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-14 00:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 61.70%EV -8.24%E -5.53%K -16.82%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.42%EV -4.93%E -0.880%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -9.94%E -2.37%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-14 00:51 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.32%EV -11.32%E -7.86%K -25.73%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.66%EV -15.12%E -3.02%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.02%EV -9.94%E -2.37%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-09-14 00:40 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.32%EV -11.32%E -7.86%K -25.73%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.66%EV -15.12%E -3.02%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.02%EV -9.94%E -2.37%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-09-14 00:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.71%EV -6.40%E -4.21%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.78%EV -6.63%E -1.21%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.51%EV -12.09%E -2.95%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-14 01:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 61.48%EV -10.09%E -6.91%K -21.94%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.62%EV -8.33%E -1.54%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.89%EV -12.09%E -2.95%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-14 00:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 61.48%EV -10.09%E -6.91%K -21.94%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.62%EV -8.33%E -1.54%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.89%EV -12.09%E -2.95%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-14 00:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 61.65%EV -10.71%E -7.38%K -23.79%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.55%EV -8.33%E -1.54%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.80%EV -12.09%E -2.95%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-14 00:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.36%EV -6.40%E -4.21%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.99%EV -8.33%E -1.54%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.65%EV -13.16%E -3.25%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-14 01:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.36%EV -6.40%E -4.21%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.99%EV -8.33%E -1.54%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 22.65%EV -13.16%E -3.25%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-14 01:05 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -7.63%E -5.09%K -15.26%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -6.63%E -1.21%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -14.23%E -3.56%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-14 00:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -7.63%E -5.09%K -15.26%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -15.12%E -3.02%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -14.23%E -3.56%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-14 01:01 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -7.63%E -5.09%K -15.26%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -15.12%E -3.02%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -14.23%E -3.56%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-14 01:01 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -7.63%E -5.09%K -15.26%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -15.12%E -3.02%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -14.23%E -3.56%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-14 01:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -7.63%E -5.09%K -15.26%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -15.12%E -3.02%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -14.23%E -3.56%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-14 01:01 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -7.63%E -5.09%K -15.26%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -15.12%E -3.02%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -14.23%E -3.56%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-13 23:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 61.64%EV -11.94%E -8.35%K -27.76%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.32%EV -8.33%E -1.54%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.04%EV -14.23%E -3.56%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-09-14 00:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 61.05%EV -11.94%E -8.35%K -27.76%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.12%EV -13.42%E -2.63%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.83%EV -14.23%E -3.56%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 14.5% | 2026-09-14 00:39 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 60.08%EV -10.71%E -7.38%K -23.79%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.15%EV -18.51%E -3.86%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.78%EV -14.23%E -3.56%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-09-14 01:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 61.42%EV -13.79%E -9.85%K -34.47%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 16.54%EV -11.72%E -2.25%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.05%EV -16.38%E -4.20%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 16.3% | 2026-09-14 00:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 63.84% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.96% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.20% | 1.1% | 2026-09-14 01:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 63.84% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.96% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.20% | 1.1% | 2026-09-14 01:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 63.84% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.96% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.20% | 1.1% | 2026-09-14 01:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 63.84% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.96% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 20.20% | 1.1% | 2026-09-14 01:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.43% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.96% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.61% | 1.1% | 2026-09-14 00:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 63.70% | 5.88I 17.01%NM 16.68% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.62% | 1.9% | 2026-09-14 00:55 |