Language:English
Guadalajara v Puebla
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Guadalajara (Local)
Prediction 74.98%1.33fair odd
EV -2.53%
Edge -1.95%
Kelly -8.43%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.49%74.93%74.92%77.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.131.231.241.3088.50%81.02%80.65%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Puebla (Visit)
Prediction 9.17%10.91fair odd
EV +10.03%
Edge +0.836%
Kelly +0.912%
Growth +0.091%
assuming max odds 12.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.78%9.15%9.29%10.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.509.799.5012.0011.76%10.21%10.53%8.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 15.85%6.31fair odd
EV +3.05%
Edge +0.469%
Kelly +0.554%
Growth +0.017%
assuming max odds 6.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.37%15.91%15.79%17.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.635.606.5020.00%17.76%17.86%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Guadalajara (Local): 74.98%; Puebla (Visit): 9.17%; Draw: 15.85%. For Puebla (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.91. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.03%.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.52%EV -5.53%E -4.39%K -21.26%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.93%EV +10.03%E +0.836%K +0.912%G +0.091% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -8.84%E -1.54%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-18 19:45 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.84%EV -10.03%E -8.36%K -50.13%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV +10.03%E +0.836%K +0.912%G +0.091% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV +3.05%E +0.469%K +0.554%G +0.017% | 7.1% | 2026-04-19 01:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 76.12%EV -4.78%E -3.76%K -17.70%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.41%EV +5.45%E +0.473%K +0.519%G +0.028% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.47%EV -0.918%E -0.147%K -0.175%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-18 22:34 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 76.12%EV -4.78%E -3.76%K -17.70%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.41%EV +5.45%E +0.473%K +0.519%G +0.028% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.47%EV -0.918%E -0.147%K -0.175%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-18 22:35 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -6.28%E -5.02%K -25.11%G +0.000% | 11.42I 8.76%NM 8.39%EV +4.71%E +0.413%K +0.452%G +0.021% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.97%EV +1.46%E +0.228%K +0.270%G +0.004% | 4.4% | 2026-04-19 00:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.13%EV -5.53%E -4.39%K -21.26%G +0.000% | 11.10I 9.01%NM 8.64%EV +1.78%E +0.160%K +0.176%G +0.003% | 6.30I 15.87%NM 15.23%EV -0.125%E -0.020%K -0.024%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-19 01:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.58%EV -8.53%E -6.99%K -38.76%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.38%EV +0.861%E +0.078%K +0.086%G +0.001% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.04%EV -8.84%E -1.54%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-19 00:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.39%EV -10.03%E -8.36%K -50.13%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV +0.861%E +0.078%K +0.086%G +0.001% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -4.88%E -0.813%K -0.976%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-19 00:50 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.02%EV -5.53%E -4.39%K -21.26%G +0.000% | 10.72I 9.33%NM 8.82%EV -1.71%E -0.159%K -0.176%G +0.000% | 5.85I 17.09%NM 16.16%EV -7.26%E -1.24%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-19 01:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 75.94%EV -9.28%E -7.67%K -44.18%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.75%EV -3.72%E -0.355%K -0.392%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -4.88%E -0.813%K -0.976%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-19 00:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.15%EV -7.03%E -5.67%K -29.28%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -8.31%E -0.831%K -0.923%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.53%EV -4.88%E -0.813%K -0.976%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-19 01:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -6.28%E -5.02%K -25.11%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -8.31%E -0.831%K -0.923%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -8.84%E -1.54%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-18 21:10 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.30%EV -7.78%E -6.32%K -33.82%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -8.31%E -0.831%K -0.923%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.44%EV -4.88%E -0.813%K -0.976%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-19 01:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.80%EV -7.78%E -6.32%K -33.82%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.20%EV -8.31%E -0.831%K -0.923%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.00%EV -8.84%E -1.54%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-19 00:59 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.10%EV -7.03%E -5.67%K -29.28%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.19%EV -8.31%E -0.831%K -0.923%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.71%EV -12.81%E -2.33%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-19 00:50 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.41%EV -8.53%E -6.99%K -38.76%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.08%EV -8.31%E -0.831%K -0.923%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV -12.81%E -2.33%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-18 23:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 75.04%EV -11.53%E -9.77%K -64.04%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.86%EV -8.31%E -0.831%K -0.923%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.10%EV -12.81%E -2.33%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-04-19 00:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 73.53%EV -10.03%E -8.36%K -50.13%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.82%EV -8.31%E -0.831%K -0.923%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.65%EV -20.73%E -4.15%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-04-18 21:05 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 75.85%EV -15.28%E -13.52%K -117.50%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.57%EV -8.31%E -0.831%K -0.923%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 15.58%EV -12.81%E -2.33%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 16.7% | 2026-04-19 00:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.27%EV -4.78%E -3.76%K -17.70%G +0.000% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 9.50%EV -10.14%E -1.03%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.23%EV -14.39%E -2.67%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-18 15:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.27%EV -4.78%E -3.76%K -17.70%G +0.000% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 9.50%EV -10.14%E -1.03%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.23%EV -14.39%E -2.67%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-18 15:09 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.37%EV -2.53%E -1.95%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -12.89%E -1.36%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.59%EV -8.84%E -1.54%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-19 00:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.37%EV -2.53%E -1.95%K -8.43%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -12.89%E -1.36%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.59%EV -8.84%E -1.54%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-19 00:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.50%EV -4.78%E -3.76%K -17.70%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV -12.89%E -1.36%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -11.22%E -2.00%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-18 23:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.50%EV -4.78%E -3.76%K -17.70%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV -12.89%E -1.36%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -11.22%E -2.00%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-18 23:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.50%EV -4.78%E -3.76%K -17.70%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV -12.89%E -1.36%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -11.22%E -2.00%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-19 00:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.50%EV -4.78%E -3.76%K -17.70%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV -12.89%E -1.36%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -11.22%E -2.00%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-18 23:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.50%EV -4.78%E -3.76%K -17.70%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV -12.89%E -1.36%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -11.22%E -2.00%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-18 23:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.50%EV -4.78%E -3.76%K -17.70%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV -12.89%E -1.36%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67%EV -11.22%E -2.00%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-19 00:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.54%EV -4.03%E -3.15%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.77%EV -12.89%E -1.36%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.69%EV -16.77%E -3.19%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-18 15:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 75.40%EV -10.03%E -8.36%K -50.13%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.52%EV -12.89%E -1.36%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.08%EV -4.88%E -0.813%K -0.976%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-04-19 01:04 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.06%EV -8.53%E -6.99%K -38.76%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.51%EV -12.89%E -1.36%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.43%EV -12.81%E -2.33%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-04-19 00:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 74.38%EV -10.03%E -8.36%K -50.13%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.40%EV -12.89%E -1.36%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.23%EV -12.81%E -2.33%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-04-19 00:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 74.86%EV -12.28%E -10.49%K -72.21%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.22%EV -12.89%E -1.36%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 15.92%EV -12.81%E -2.33%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-04-19 00:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 74.29%EV -11.53%E -9.77%K -64.04%G +0.000% | 9.25I 10.81%NM 9.48%EV -15.19%E -1.64%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.23%EV -14.39%E -2.67%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-04-19 00:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.10%EV -6.28%E -5.02%K -25.11%G +0.000% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.07%EV -15.64%E -1.70%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 5.85I 17.09%NM 15.83%EV -7.26%E -1.24%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-19 00:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.04%EV -5.53%E -4.39%K -21.26%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV -17.48%E -1.94%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -12.81%E -2.33%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-19 00:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.20%EV -6.28%E -5.02%K -25.11%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.17%EV -17.48%E -1.94%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -12.81%E -2.33%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-19 00:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 73.13%EV -7.03%E -5.67%K -29.28%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.08%EV -17.48%E -1.94%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.79%EV -14.39%E -2.67%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-04-19 00:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 73.13%EV -7.03%E -5.67%K -29.28%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.08%EV -17.48%E -1.94%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.79%EV -14.39%E -2.67%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-04-19 00:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 74.84%EV -9.28%E -7.67%K -44.18%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.06%EV -17.48%E -1.94%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.09%EV -4.88%E -0.813%K -0.976%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-04-19 00:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 73.29%EV -7.78%E -6.32%K -33.82%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.02%EV -17.48%E -1.94%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.69%EV -14.39%E -2.67%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-04-18 23:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 72.49%EV -8.53%E -6.99%K -38.76%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.83%EV -17.48%E -1.94%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.69%EV -20.73%E -4.15%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-04-18 19:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 72.49%EV -8.53%E -6.99%K -38.76%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.83%EV -17.48%E -1.94%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.69%EV -20.73%E -4.15%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-04-18 19:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 72.49%EV -8.53%E -6.99%K -38.76%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.83%EV -17.48%E -1.94%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.69%EV -20.73%E -4.15%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-04-18 19:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 72.49%EV -8.53%E -6.99%K -38.76%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.83%EV -17.48%E -1.94%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.69%EV -20.73%E -4.15%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-04-18 19:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 74.14%EV -10.78%E -9.06%K -56.72%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.38%EV -22.06%E -2.60%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 15.48%EV -9.64%E -1.69%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-04-19 00:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 73.01%EV -10.03%E -8.36%K -50.13%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.31%EV -22.06%E -2.60%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.69%EV -16.77%E -3.19%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-04-19 00:15 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 73.01%EV -10.03%E -8.36%K -50.13%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.31%EV -22.06%E -2.60%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.69%EV -16.77%E -3.19%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-04-19 00:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 78.07% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.34% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.58% | 0.9% | 2026-04-19 01:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.85% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.61% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.54% | 1.1% | 2026-04-19 00:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.85% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.61% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.54% | 1.1% | 2026-04-19 00:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.85% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.61% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.54% | 1.1% | 2026-04-19 00:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.26I 79.37%NM 77.99% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.56% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.45% | 1.8% | 2026-04-19 01:05 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.66% | 11.11I 9.00%NM 8.74% | 7.14I 14.01%NM 13.60% | 3.0% | 2026-04-19 00:35 |