Language:English
Guadalajara v Cruz Azul
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Guadalajara (Local)
Prediction 41.43%2.41fair odd
EV -2.21%
Edge -0.938%
Kelly -1.63%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.36
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.99%41.47%41.48%42.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.202.202.3648.78%45.42%45.45%42.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Cruz Azul (Visit)
Prediction 30.58%3.27fair odd
EV +0.908%
Edge +0.275%
Kelly +0.395%
Growth +0.004%
assuming max odds 3.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.77%30.55%30.53%31.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.053.053.3036.36%32.82%32.79%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.99%3.57fair odd
EV +1.03%
Edge +0.286%
Kelly +0.396%
Growth +0.004%
assuming max odds 3.61
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.77%27.98%28.00%29.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.253.253.6134.72%30.72%30.77%27.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Guadalajara (Local): 41.43%; Cruz Azul (Visit): 30.58%; Draw: 27.99%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.57. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.61, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.03%.
Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.84%EV -4.29%E -1.86%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 31.38%EV -5.82%E -1.89%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.61I 27.70%NM 26.77%EV +1.03%E +0.286%K +0.396%G +0.004% | 3.5% | 2026-05-17 01:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.84%EV -4.29%E -1.86%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 31.38%EV -5.82%E -1.89%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.61I 27.70%NM 26.77%EV +1.03%E +0.286%K +0.396%G +0.004% | 3.5% | 2026-05-17 01:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.01%EV -2.21%E -0.938%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 3.17I 31.55%NM 30.53%EV -3.07%E -0.968%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.46%EV -4.84%E -1.42%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-05-17 00:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.32%EV -6.77%E -3.01%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 3.21I 31.15%NM 29.67%EV -1.84%E -0.574%K -0.834%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.01%EV -4.84%E -1.42%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-17 00:31 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -4.70%E -2.04%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -8.27%E -2.76%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -4.84%E -1.42%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-17 01:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.77%E -3.01%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -8.27%E -2.76%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -4.84%E -1.42%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-17 00:49 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -6.77%E -3.01%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -8.27%E -2.76%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -4.84%E -1.42%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-17 00:19 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.35%EV -10.92%E -5.08%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.87%EV -9.79%E -3.32%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV -4.84%E -1.42%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-05-16 08:20 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.26I 44.25%NM 42.07%EV -6.36%E -2.81%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 3.19I 31.35%NM 29.80%EV -2.46%E -0.770%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 28.13%EV -5.40%E -1.60%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-15 20:51 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.71%EV -7.60%E -3.41%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.86%EV +0.908%E +0.275%K +0.395%G +0.004% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.43%EV -6.24%E -1.86%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-17 00:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.71%EV -7.60%E -3.41%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.86%EV +0.908%E +0.275%K +0.395%G +0.004% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.43%EV -6.24%E -1.86%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-17 00:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -6.77%E -3.01%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -5.21%E -1.68%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -6.24%E -1.86%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-15 16:54 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.86%EV -6.77%E -3.01%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -11.32%E -3.90%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -6.24%E -1.86%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-17 00:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 41.95%EV -5.11%E -2.23%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 3.29I 30.40%NM 29.20%EV +0.602%E +0.183%K +0.263%G +0.002% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 28.85%EV -6.80%E -2.04%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-17 01:01 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -4.70%E -2.04%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -5.21%E -1.68%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -7.64%E -2.32%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-17 00:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.89%EV -9.67%E -4.44%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -0.621%E -0.191%K -0.276%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.34%EV -7.64%E -2.32%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-17 00:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.89%EV -9.67%E -4.44%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -0.621%E -0.191%K -0.276%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.34%EV -7.64%E -2.32%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-17 00:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.89%EV -9.67%E -4.44%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -0.621%E -0.191%K -0.276%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.34%EV -7.64%E -2.32%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-17 00:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.89%EV -9.67%E -4.44%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -0.621%E -0.191%K -0.276%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.34%EV -7.64%E -2.32%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-17 00:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.89%EV -9.67%E -4.44%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -0.621%E -0.191%K -0.276%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.34%EV -7.64%E -2.32%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-17 00:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.89%EV -9.67%E -4.44%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -0.621%E -0.191%K -0.276%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.34%EV -7.64%E -2.32%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-17 00:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -6.77%E -3.01%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -5.21%E -1.68%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -7.64%E -2.32%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-17 00:40 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -4.70%E -2.04%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -8.27%E -2.76%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -7.64%E -2.32%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-17 00:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -6.77%E -3.01%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -8.27%E -2.76%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -7.64%E -2.32%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-17 00:50 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -8.84%E -4.02%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -8.27%E -2.76%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -7.64%E -2.32%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-16 23:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.12%EV -3.87%E -1.67%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.24%EV -8.88%E -2.98%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -9.04%E -2.78%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-17 01:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.12%EV -3.87%E -1.67%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.24%EV -8.88%E -2.98%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -9.04%E -2.78%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-17 01:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 42.74%EV -10.50%E -4.86%K -9.05%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.85%EV -2.15%E -0.672%K -0.977%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -9.04%E -2.78%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-17 00:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.86%EV -10.92%E -5.08%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -2.15%E -0.672%K -0.977%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -9.04%E -2.78%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-17 00:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.99%EV -4.70%E -2.04%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -11.32%E -3.90%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -9.04%E -2.78%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-17 00:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.06%EV -8.84%E -4.02%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.15%EV -11.32%E -3.90%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.79%EV -9.04%E -2.78%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-17 00:50 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.97%EV -8.84%E -4.02%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.30%EV -11.93%E -4.14%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.73%EV -9.04%E -2.78%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-17 00:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 41.96%EV -12.99%E -6.18%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 30.92%EV -12.85%E -4.51%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.12%EV -9.04%E -2.78%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-05-16 08:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.16%EV -6.77%E -3.01%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 3.06I 32.68%NM 30.26%EV -6.43%E -2.10%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 3.24I 30.86%NM 28.58%EV -9.32%E -2.88%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-17 01:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.82%EV -12.16%E -5.74%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.82%EV -3.68%E -1.17%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.37%EV -10.44%E -3.26%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-17 00:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 42.82%EV -12.16%E -5.74%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.82%EV -3.68%E -1.17%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.37%EV -10.44%E -3.26%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-17 00:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.75%EV -8.84%E -4.02%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 31.24%EV -12.24%E -4.26%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -10.44%E -3.26%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-17 01:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.75%EV -8.84%E -4.02%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 31.24%EV -12.24%E -4.26%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -10.44%E -3.26%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-05-17 01:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.35%EV -10.92%E -5.08%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.87%EV -11.93%E -4.14%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.78%EV -10.44%E -3.26%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-05-17 00:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 42.82%EV -15.06%E -7.35%K -14.34%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.75%EV -9.79%E -3.32%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.43%EV -10.44%E -3.26%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-05-17 00:41 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 42.26%EV -13.82%E -6.64%K -12.79%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 30.10%EV -10.71%E -3.67%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 27.64%EV -11.00%E -3.46%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-05-17 00:40 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -8.84%E -4.02%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.81%EV -6.74%E -2.21%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -11.84%E -3.76%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-17 00:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.66%EV -12.99%E -6.18%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -5.21%E -1.68%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.44%EV -11.84%E -3.76%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-05-17 00:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 42.74%EV -14.64%E -7.11%K -13.82%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.86%EV -6.74%E -2.21%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.40%EV -13.24%E -4.27%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-05-17 00:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 42.74%EV -14.64%E -7.11%K -13.82%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.86%EV -6.74%E -2.21%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.40%EV -13.24%E -4.27%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-05-17 00:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.13%EV -8.84%E -4.02%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.44%EV -11.32%E -3.90%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.43%EV -16.04%E -5.35%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-05-17 00:41 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 40.68%EV -10.92%E -5.08%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.16%EV -11.32%E -3.90%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.16%EV -16.04%E -5.35%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-05-17 01:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 40.68%EV -10.92%E -5.08%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.16%EV -11.32%E -3.90%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.16%EV -16.04%E -5.35%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-05-17 01:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 40.68%EV -10.92%E -5.08%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.16%EV -11.32%E -3.90%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.16%EV -16.04%E -5.35%K -8.02%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-05-17 01:01 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 40.47%EV -12.16%E -5.74%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 30.64%EV -14.38%E -5.14%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 28.89%EV -16.88%E -5.68%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 16.6% | 2026-05-17 01:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 40.12%EV -12.99%E -6.18%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 30.63%EV -15.91%E -5.79%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 29.25%EV -19.40%E -6.74%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 18.7% | 2026-05-17 00:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.99% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.49% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.52% | 0.9% | 2026-05-17 01:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.19% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.38% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.43% | 1.3% | 2026-05-17 01:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.19% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.38% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.43% | 1.3% | 2026-05-17 01:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.82% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.37% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.80% | 1.3% | 2026-05-17 01:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 41.83% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.59% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.58% | 2.2% | 2026-05-17 01:05 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.87% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 31.41% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.72% | 5.1% | 2026-05-17 01:00 |