Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Cruz Azul v Santos Laguna

Início: 2026-09-06 23:02 UTC

Final: Cruz Azul 1–0 Santos Laguna

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

49 casas de apostas (17 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Cruz Azul (Local)

Previsão 68.87%1.45odd justa
EV -1.51%
Vantagem -1.06%
Kelly -3.52%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.43

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
65.69%68.75%68.68%70.59%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.241.331.331.4380.65%74.94%75.19%69.93%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Santos Laguna (Visitante)

Previsão 12.97%7.71odd justa
EV +3.73%
Vantagem +0.466%
Kelly +0.532%
Crescimento +0.020%

pressupondo odds máximas de 8.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
11.71%12.92%13.22%14.89%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
6.007.147.008.0016.67%14.00%14.29%12.50%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 18.16%5.51odd justa
EV -1.56%
Vantagem -0.287%
Kelly -0.352%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 5.42

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
17.48%18.33%18.10%20.29%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
4.555.035.105.4221.98%19.89%19.61%18.45%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Cruz Azul (Local): 68.87%; Santos Laguna (Visitante): 12.97%; Empate: 18.16%. Para Santos Laguna (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 7.71. 7 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 8.00, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +3.73%.

Odds das casas de apostas (49 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
Bet Victor🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.44%EV -8.40%E -6.32%K -25.46%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.71%EV +3.73%E +0.466%K +0.532%G +0.020%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.85%EV -4.64%E -0.884%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 23:00
betano_uk🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.44%EV -8.40%E -6.32%K -25.46%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.71%EV +3.73%E +0.466%K +0.532%G +0.020%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.85%EV -4.64%E -0.884%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 23:01
Betsson🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.88%EV -6.34%E -4.66%K -17.60%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.83%EV +1.13%E +0.145%K +0.167%G +0.002%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.29%EV -17.36%E -3.81%K -4.89%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-06 22:29
NordicBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.88%EV -6.34%E -4.66%K -17.60%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.83%EV +1.13%E +0.145%K +0.167%G +0.002%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.29%EV -17.36%E -3.81%K -4.89%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-06 22:34
Tipico (DE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.59%EV -10.47%E -8.05%K -34.89%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.76%EV +1.13%E +0.145%K +0.167%G +0.002%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.65%EV -5.55%E -1.07%K -1.32%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-06 22:20
Pinnacle🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.83%EV -4.96%E -3.59%K -13.05%G +0.000%7.78I 12.85%NM 12.39%EV +0.875%E +0.112%K +0.129%G +0.001%5.42I 18.45%NM 17.78%EV -1.56%E -0.287%K -0.352%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-06 22:55
SportsBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.30%EV -8.40%E -6.32%K -25.46%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.06%EV +0.486%E +0.063%K +0.072%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.64%EV -3.73%E -0.705%K -0.869%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 22:45
Marathon Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.65%EV -8.40%E -6.32%K -25.46%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.19%EV -1.46%E -0.192%K -0.221%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.16%EV -7.37%E -1.44%K -1.80%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-06 22:50
Coolbet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.05%EV -4.96%E -3.59%K -13.05%G +0.000%7.55I 13.25%NM 12.62%EV -2.11%E -0.279%K -0.322%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.33%EV -5.55%E -1.07%K -1.32%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-06 12:40
1xBet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.44%EV -4.96%E -3.59%K -13.05%G +0.000%7.54I 13.26%NM 12.71%EV -2.24%E -0.297%K -0.342%G +0.000%5.37I 18.62%NM 17.85%EV -2.46%E -0.459%K -0.564%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-06 22:59
ATG (SE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.86%EV -7.71%E -5.76%K -22.69%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -2.76%E -0.367%K -0.424%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.66%EV -3.73%E -0.705%K -0.869%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-06 23:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.86%EV -7.71%E -5.76%K -22.69%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -2.76%E -0.367%K -0.424%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.66%EV -3.73%E -0.705%K -0.869%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-06 23:00
PlayUp🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.14%EV -6.34%E -4.66%K -17.60%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -2.76%E -0.367%K -0.424%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.51%EV -13.72%E -2.89%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-06 22:35
FanDuel🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.17%EV -9.09%E -6.89%K -28.41%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.35%EV -2.76%E -0.367%K -0.424%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.48%EV -3.73%E -0.705%K -0.869%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-06 22:40
BetRivers🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.54%EV -8.40%E -6.32%K -25.46%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.33%EV -2.76%E -0.367%K -0.424%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.13%EV -7.37%E -1.44%K -1.80%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-06 22:44
Unibet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.94%EV -9.09%E -6.89%K -28.41%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.31%EV -2.76%E -0.367%K -0.424%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.75%EV -5.55%E -1.07%K -1.32%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-06 23:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.94%EV -9.09%E -6.89%K -28.41%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.31%EV -2.76%E -0.367%K -0.424%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.75%EV -5.55%E -1.07%K -1.32%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-06 23:00
Grosvenor🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.94%EV -9.09%E -6.89%K -28.41%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.31%EV -2.76%E -0.367%K -0.424%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.75%EV -5.55%E -1.07%K -1.32%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-06 23:00
Casumo🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.94%EV -9.09%E -6.89%K -28.41%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.31%EV -2.76%E -0.367%K -0.424%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.75%EV -5.55%E -1.07%K -1.32%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-06 23:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.94%EV -9.09%E -6.89%K -28.41%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.31%EV -2.76%E -0.367%K -0.424%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.75%EV -5.55%E -1.07%K -1.32%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-06 23:00
betPARX🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.94%EV -9.09%E -6.89%K -28.41%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.31%EV -2.76%E -0.367%K -0.424%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.75%EV -5.55%E -1.07%K -1.32%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-06 22:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.96%EV -2.20%E -1.55%K -5.25%G +0.000%7.12I 14.04%NM 13.55%EV -7.68%E -1.08%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.22I 19.16%NM 18.49%EV -5.19%E -0.994%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-05 23:05
LowVig.ag🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.96%EV -2.20%E -1.55%K -5.25%G +0.000%7.12I 14.04%NM 13.55%EV -7.68%E -1.08%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.22I 19.16%NM 18.49%EV -5.19%E -0.994%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-05 23:05
Fliff🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.81%EV -8.40%E -6.32%K -25.46%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 12.89%EV -7.94%E -1.12%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -9.18%E -1.84%K -2.30%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-06 22:55
Fanatics🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.34%E -4.66%K -17.60%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -9.24%E -1.32%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.82%EV -4.64%E -0.884%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-06 22:14
Betway🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.34%E -4.66%K -17.60%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -9.24%E -1.32%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.82%EV -4.64%E -0.884%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-06 22:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -7.02%E -5.20%K -20.07%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -9.24%E -1.32%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.73%EV -4.64%E -0.884%K -1.09%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-06 22:25
DraftKings🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.20%EV -6.34%E -4.66%K -17.60%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV -9.24%E -1.32%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.55%EV -9.18%E -1.84%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-06 23:00
BetUS🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.64%EV -7.71%E -5.76%K -22.69%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.14%EV -9.24%E -1.32%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.21%EV -8.28%E -1.64%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-06 22:55
Bet Right🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.52%EV -7.71%E -5.76%K -22.69%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -9.24%E -1.32%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -9.18%E -1.84%K -2.30%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-06 22:55
TABtouch🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.17%EV -10.47%E -8.05%K -34.89%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -9.24%E -1.32%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -9.18%E -1.84%K -2.30%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-06 23:00
Paddy Power🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.17%EV -10.47%E -8.05%K -34.89%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -9.24%E -1.32%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -9.18%E -1.84%K -2.30%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-06 22:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.17%EV -10.47%E -8.05%K -34.89%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -9.24%E -1.32%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -9.18%E -1.84%K -2.30%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-06 22:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 69.25%EV -11.85%E -9.25%K -42.30%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.66%EV -9.24%E -1.32%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.09%EV -11.00%E -2.24%K -2.82%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-06 23:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 69.25%EV -11.85%E -9.25%K -42.30%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.66%EV -9.24%E -1.32%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.09%EV -11.00%E -2.24%K -2.82%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-06 23:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 69.25%EV -11.85%E -9.25%K -42.30%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.66%EV -9.24%E -1.32%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.09%EV -11.00%E -2.24%K -2.82%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-06 23:00
GTbets🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.48%EV -1.51%E -1.06%K -3.52%G +0.000%6.86I 14.58%NM 14.07%EV -11.05%E -1.61%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.23I 19.12%NM 18.45%EV -5.01%E -0.957%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-06 22:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 69.35%EV -14.60%E -11.77%K -60.83%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 12.74%EV -12.48%E -1.85%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 17.91%EV -12.82%E -2.67%K -3.37%G +0.000%16.3%2026-09-06 23:00
LeoVegas🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.53%EV -8.40%E -6.32%K -25.46%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.60%EV -13.13%E -1.96%K -2.30%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.87%EV -7.37%E -1.44%K -1.80%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-06 23:00
betfred_uk🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.00%EV -8.40%E -6.32%K -25.46%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -15.72%E -2.42%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.09%EV -9.18%E -1.84%K -2.30%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-06 21:30
BoyleSports🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.00%EV -8.40%E -6.32%K -25.46%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -15.72%E -2.42%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.09%EV -9.18%E -1.84%K -2.30%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-06 22:59
888sport🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.95%EV -8.40%E -6.32%K -25.46%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.70%EV -15.72%E -2.42%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.36%EV -16.45%E -3.58%K -4.57%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-06 22:20
William Hill🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.95%EV -8.40%E -6.32%K -25.46%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.70%EV -15.72%E -2.42%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.36%EV -16.45%E -3.58%K -4.57%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-06 23:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.95%EV -8.40%E -6.32%K -25.46%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.70%EV -15.72%E -2.42%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.36%EV -16.45%E -3.58%K -4.57%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-06 22:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.95%EV -8.40%E -6.32%K -25.46%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.70%EV -15.72%E -2.42%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.36%EV -16.45%E -3.58%K -4.57%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-06 22:20
Sky Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 67.99%EV -10.47%E -8.05%K -34.89%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.60%EV -15.72%E -2.42%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.41%EV -12.82%E -2.67%K -3.37%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-06 22:45
NetBet (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 67.31%EV -10.47%E -8.05%K -34.89%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.67%EV -17.02%E -2.66%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.02%EV -16.45%E -3.58%K -4.57%G +0.000%14.3%2026-09-06 23:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 66.69%EV -7.71%E -5.76%K -22.69%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.30%EV -18.96%E -3.03%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.01%EV -14.63%E -3.11%K -3.95%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-06 22:55
Neds🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.69%EV -6.34%E -4.66%K -17.60%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.89%EV -22.20%E -3.70%K -4.44%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.42%EV -16.45%E -3.58%K -4.57%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-06 19:45
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.39I 71.94%NM 71.15%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.50%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.35%1.1%2026-09-06 22:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.39I 71.94%NM 71.15%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.50%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.35%1.1%2026-09-06 22:55
Matchbook◎1.38I 72.46%NM 71.10%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.68%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.21%1.9%2026-09-06 23:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.38I 72.46%NM 70.89%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.65%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.47%2.2%2026-09-06 23:00
Smarkets◎1.37I 72.99%NM 71.00%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.31%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.69%2.8%2026-09-06 23:00
Kalshi◎1.37I 72.99%NM 70.88%8.33I 12.00%NM 11.66%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.46%3.0%2026-09-06 23:00