The School of Odds

Atlante FC v Toluca

2026-08-15 23:00 UTC — Liga MX

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Atlante FC (Local)

Prediction 16.67%6.00fair odd
EV -4.15%
Edge -0.721%
Kelly -0.873%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.15%16.76%16.67%18.23%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.755.245.005.7521.05%19.07%20.00%17.39%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Toluca (Visit)

Prediction 60.18%1.66fair odd
EV -4.32%
Edge -2.72%
Kelly -7.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.59

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.05%59.78%60.18%61.39%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.451.531.531.5968.97%65.39%65.36%62.89%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 23.15%4.32fair odd
EV -2.76%
Edge -0.657%
Kelly -0.862%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.46%23.46%23.15%25.26%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.503.783.804.2028.57%26.48%26.32%23.81%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet5.75I 17.39%NM 16.64%EV -4.15%E -0.721%K -0.873%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.57%EV -4.92%E -3.11%K -8.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -2.76%E -0.657%K -0.862%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-26 11:30
SportsBet5.70I 17.54%NM 16.32%EV -4.98%E -0.874%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.42%EV -7.33%E -4.76%K -13.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -7.39%E -1.85%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-26 11:30
FanDuel5.70I 17.54%NM 16.15%EV -4.98%E -0.874%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.39%EV -9.73%E -6.49%K -19.47%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.46%EV -5.07%E -1.24%K -1.64%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-26 11:29
1xBet5.67I 17.64%NM 16.61%EV -5.48%E -0.967%K -1.17%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.24%EV -4.32%E -2.72%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.15%EV -9.70%E -2.49%K -3.35%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-26 11:30
Marathon Bet5.55I 18.02%NM 16.70%EV -7.48%E -1.35%K -1.64%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.78%EV -6.73%E -4.34%K -12.23%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 23.52%EV -8.78%E -2.23%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-26 13:05
LeoVegas5.10I 19.61%NM 17.67%EV -14.98%E -2.94%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.91%EV -7.93%E -5.18%K -14.96%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.41%EV -10.86%E -2.82%K -3.81%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-26 11:30
Paddy Power5.00I 20.00%NM 17.70%EV -16.65%E -3.33%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.01%EV -9.73%E -6.49%K -19.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.29%EV -12.02%E -3.16%K -4.29%G +0.000%13.0%2026-07-26 11:30
William Hill5.00I 20.00%NM 17.69%EV -16.65%E -3.33%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 57.05%EV -6.73%E -4.34%K -12.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.26%EV -18.97%E -5.42%K -7.59%G +0.000%13.1%2026-07-26 11:40
888sport5.00I 20.00%NM 17.55%EV -16.65%E -3.33%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 57.37%EV -7.93%E -5.18%K -14.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.08%EV -18.97%E -5.42%K -7.59%G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-26 11:35
888sport (SE)5.00I 20.00%NM 17.55%EV -16.65%E -3.33%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 57.37%EV -7.93%E -5.18%K -14.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.08%EV -18.97%E -5.42%K -7.59%G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-26 11:35
Mr Green (SE)5.00I 20.00%NM 17.55%EV -16.65%E -3.33%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 57.37%EV -7.93%E -5.18%K -14.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.08%EV -18.97%E -5.42%K -7.59%G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-26 11:35
Betclic (FR)4.95I 20.20%NM 17.39%EV -17.48%E -3.53%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 59.35%EV -12.74%E -8.79%K -28.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.26%EV -14.34%E -3.87%K -5.31%G +0.000%16.2%2026-07-26 11:30
Sky Bet4.75I 21.05%NM 18.23%EV -20.82%E -4.38%K -5.55%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 57.72%EV -9.73%E -6.49%K -19.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.05%EV -16.65%E -4.63%K -6.40%G +0.000%15.5%2026-07-26 11:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.