Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Atlante FC v Toluca

Início: 2026-08-15 23:00 UTC

Final: Atlante FC 0–0 Toluca

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

47 casas de apostas (16 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Atlante FC (Local)

Previsão 17.89%5.59odd justa
EV +3.78%
Vantagem +0.652%
Kelly +0.788%
Crescimento +0.030%

pressupondo odds máximas de 5.80

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
16.27%17.86%17.86%19.43%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
4.605.205.255.8021.74%19.23%19.05%17.24%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Toluca (Visitante)

Previsão 58.91%1.70odd justa
EV -0.439%
Vantagem -0.259%
Kelly -0.636%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.69

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
56.78%58.92%58.98%61.97%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.401.551.551.6971.43%64.66%64.52%59.17%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 23.19%4.31odd justa
EV -0.264%
Vantagem -0.061%
Kelly -0.080%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.30

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
21.76%23.22%23.16%25.05%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.654.004.004.3027.40%25.02%25.00%23.26%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Atlante FC (Local): 17.89%; Toluca (Visitante): 58.91%; Empate: 23.19%. Para Atlante FC (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 5.59. 4 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 5.80, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +3.78%.

Odds das casas de apostas (47 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
Coolbet🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV +3.78%E +0.652%K +0.788%G +0.030%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.32%EV -6.92%E -4.38%K -11.93%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.25%EV -4.90%E -1.20%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-15 22:55
Svenska Spel🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV +2.89%E +0.502%K +0.608%G +0.018%1.51I 66.23%NM 61.97%EV -11.04%E -7.31%K -21.65%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.76%EV -0.264%E -0.061%K -0.080%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-15 22:54
ATG (SE)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV +2.89%E +0.502%K +0.608%G +0.018%1.51I 66.23%NM 61.97%EV -11.04%E -7.31%K -21.65%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.76%EV -0.264%E -0.061%K -0.080%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-15 22:54
BetRivers🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.48%EV +0.203%E +0.036%K +0.044%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -11.63%E -7.75%K -23.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.98%EV -2.58%E -0.615%K -0.807%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 22:34
GTbets🎯5.53I 18.08%NM 16.96%EV -1.05%E -0.190%K -0.232%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.36%EV -6.92%E -4.38%K -11.93%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 23.68%EV -8.15%E -2.06%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-15 22:49
BetOnline.ag🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.53%EV -1.59%E -0.288%K -0.353%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.51%EV -4.56%E -2.82%K -7.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.96%EV -2.58%E -0.615%K -0.807%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-15 22:40
LowVig.ag🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.53%EV -1.59%E -0.288%K -0.353%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.51%EV -4.56%E -2.82%K -7.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.96%EV -2.58%E -0.615%K -0.807%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-15 22:39
betPARX🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -1.59%E -0.288%K -0.353%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -11.63%E -7.75%K -23.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -2.58%E -0.615%K -0.807%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-15 22:52
Unibet (SE)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -1.59%E -0.288%K -0.353%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -11.63%E -7.75%K -23.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -2.58%E -0.615%K -0.807%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-15 22:54
Grosvenor🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -1.59%E -0.288%K -0.353%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -11.63%E -7.75%K -23.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -2.58%E -0.615%K -0.807%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-15 22:50
Unibet (NL)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -1.59%E -0.288%K -0.353%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -11.63%E -7.75%K -23.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -2.58%E -0.615%K -0.807%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-15 22:54
Casumo🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -1.59%E -0.288%K -0.353%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -11.63%E -7.75%K -23.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -2.58%E -0.615%K -0.807%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-15 22:54
Unibet🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -1.59%E -0.288%K -0.353%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -11.63%E -7.75%K -23.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -2.58%E -0.615%K -0.807%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-15 22:54
Pinnacle🎯5.46I 18.32%NM 17.67%EV -2.30%E -0.422%K -0.516%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.19%EV -3.97%E -2.44%K -6.31%G +0.000%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.14%EV -3.28%E -0.786%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-15 22:50
Marathon Bet🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.49%EV -5.17%E -0.975%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.04%EV -7.51%E -4.78%K -13.17%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.47%EV -8.38%E -2.12%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-15 22:53
TABtouch🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 16.95%EV -5.17%E -0.975%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 61.13%EV -13.40%E -9.12%K -28.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.92%EV -4.90%E -1.20%K -1.58%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-15 22:54
1xBet🎯5.28I 18.94%NM 18.17%EV -5.52%E -1.05%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.78%EV -0.439%E -0.259%K -0.636%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 25.05%EV -11.16%E -2.92%K -3.95%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-15 22:49
DraftKings🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.01%EV -6.06%E -1.15%K -1.43%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.47%EV -6.33%E -3.98%K -10.73%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -2.58%E -0.615%K -0.807%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-15 22:40
Fanatics🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.91%EV -6.06%E -1.15%K -1.43%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.15%EV -6.33%E -3.98%K -10.73%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.94%EV -4.90%E -1.20%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-15 22:39
Betway🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.68%EV -6.06%E -1.15%K -1.43%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.12%EV -7.51%E -4.78%K -13.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -7.22%E -1.81%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-15 22:54
Bet Right🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.55%EV -6.06%E -1.15%K -1.43%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.43%EV -8.69%E -5.60%K -15.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -7.22%E -1.81%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-15 22:44
Virgin Bet🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 16.85%EV -6.06%E -1.15%K -1.43%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 61.02%EV -14.58%E -10.05%K -32.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.12%EV -7.22%E -1.81%K -2.41%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-15 22:54
LiveScore Bet🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 16.85%EV -6.06%E -1.15%K -1.43%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 61.02%EV -14.58%E -10.05%K -32.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.12%EV -7.22%E -1.81%K -2.41%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-15 22:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 16.78%EV -6.06%E -1.15%K -1.43%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 61.19%EV -15.17%E -10.53%K -34.47%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.03%EV -7.22%E -1.81%K -2.41%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-15 22:50
BetUS🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -6.95%E -1.34%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.91%EV -5.15%E -3.20%K -8.45%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.85%EV -3.74%E -0.902%K -1.19%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 22:54
FanDuel🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.92%EV -6.95%E -1.34%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.35%EV -7.51%E -4.78%K -13.17%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -4.90%E -1.20%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 22:54
SportsBet🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.89%EV -6.95%E -1.34%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.86%EV -6.92%E -4.38%K -11.93%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -7.22%E -1.81%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-15 22:54
Tipico (DE)🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.68%EV -6.95%E -1.34%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.33%EV -8.69%E -5.60%K -15.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.99%EV -7.22%E -1.81%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-15 22:45
PMU (FR)🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 16.81%EV -8.74%E -1.71%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 61.22%EV -17.52%E -12.52%K -43.81%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.98%EV -9.54%E -2.45%K -3.29%G +0.000%16.7%2026-08-15 22:54
betano_uk🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -10.53%E -2.11%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.47%EV -5.74%E -3.59%K -9.57%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -4.90%E -1.20%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-15 22:54
Bet Victor🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.67%EV -10.53%E -2.11%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.99%EV -5.15%E -3.20%K -8.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -7.22%E -1.81%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 22:55
Unibet (UK)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -10.53%E -2.11%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.14%EV -5.74%E -3.59%K -9.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -7.22%E -1.81%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-15 22:45
PlayUp🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.44%EV -10.53%E -2.11%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.62%EV -5.74%E -3.59%K -9.57%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.94%EV -10.70%E -2.78%K -3.75%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-15 22:40
LeoVegas🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -10.53%E -2.11%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -7.51%E -4.78%K -13.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -7.22%E -1.81%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-15 22:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.16%EV -10.53%E -2.11%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 58.57%EV -8.69%E -5.60%K -15.79%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.28%EV -9.54%E -2.45%K -3.29%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-15 22:54
Paddy Power🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -10.53%E -2.11%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.53%EV -9.86%E -6.45%K -18.61%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.56%EV -11.86%E -3.12%K -4.24%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-15 22:54
betfred_uk🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.85%EV -10.53%E -2.11%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 58.34%EV -9.86%E -6.45%K -18.61%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.80%EV -13.02%E -3.47%K -4.73%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-15 22:45
NordicBet🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.74%EV -12.32%E -2.51%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.40%EV -5.74%E -3.59%K -9.57%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.86%EV -10.70%E -2.78%K -3.75%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-15 22:40
Betsson🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.74%EV -12.32%E -2.51%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.40%EV -5.74%E -3.59%K -9.57%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.86%EV -10.70%E -2.78%K -3.75%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-15 22:40
NetBet (FR)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 17.90%EV -12.32%E -2.51%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 58.08%EV -11.04%E -7.31%K -21.65%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.03%EV -15.34%E -4.20%K -5.79%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-15 22:54
William Hill🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.54%EV -14.11%E -2.94%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 57.41%EV -8.69%E -5.60%K -15.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.05%EV -14.18%E -3.83%K -5.25%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-15 22:34
888sport🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.40%EV -14.11%E -2.94%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 57.73%EV -9.86%E -6.45%K -18.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.87%EV -14.18%E -3.83%K -5.25%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-15 22:34
888sport (SE)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.40%EV -14.11%E -2.94%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 57.73%EV -9.86%E -6.45%K -18.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.87%EV -14.18%E -3.83%K -5.25%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-15 22:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.40%EV -14.11%E -2.94%K -3.71%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 57.73%EV -9.86%E -6.45%K -18.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.87%EV -14.18%E -3.83%K -5.25%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-15 22:34
Sky Bet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 18.62%EV -15.01%E -3.16%K -4.00%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 57.80%EV -9.86%E -6.45%K -18.61%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.58%EV -13.02%E -3.47%K -4.73%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-15 22:54
Betclic (FR)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 18.59%EV -15.01%E -3.16%K -4.00%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 57.35%EV -9.28%E -6.02%K -17.18%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 24.06%EV -14.88%E -4.05%K -5.57%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-15 22:53
Neds🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.43%EV -17.69%E -3.85%K -4.91%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 57.66%EV -8.69%E -5.60%K -15.79%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.91%EV -9.54%E -2.45%K -3.29%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-15 22:40
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook5.70I 17.54%NM 17.52%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.79%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.69%0.2%2026-08-15 22:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)5.60I 17.86%NM 17.71%1.66I 60.24%NM 59.75%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54%0.8%2026-08-15 22:54
Kalshi5.56I 17.99%NM 17.82%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.41%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.77%0.9%2026-08-15 22:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)5.60I 17.86%NM 17.68%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.29%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.03%1.0%2026-08-15 22:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)5.50I 18.18%NM 17.98%1.66I 60.24%NM 59.56%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.47%1.2%2026-08-15 22:55
Smarkets5.50I 18.18%NM 17.88%1.66I 60.24%NM 59.25%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.87%1.7%2026-08-15 22:55