Language:English
V-Varen Nagasaki v Nagoya Grampus
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
V-Varen Nagasaki (Local)
Prediction 29.50%3.39fair odd
EV -4.12%
Edge -1.27%
Kelly -1.83%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.77%29.48%29.49%30.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.103.103.2533.90%32.25%32.26%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Nagoya Grampus (Visit)
Prediction 44.48%2.25fair odd
EV -3.47%
Edge -1.60%
Kelly -2.97%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.17
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.11%44.44%44.50%45.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.962.082.102.1751.02%48.00%47.62%46.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.01%3.84fair odd
EV -2.44%
Edge -0.652%
Kelly -0.889%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.01%26.08%26.01%27.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.333.493.423.7530.03%28.68%29.20%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: V-Varen Nagasaki (Local): 29.50%; Nagoya Grampus (Visit): 44.48%; Draw: 26.01%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.84. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.75, with an expected value of -2.44%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.38%EV -4.12%E -1.27%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 2.13I 46.95%NM 44.82%EV -5.25%E -2.47%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.80%EV -3.75%E -1.01%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-06 11:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.24I 30.86%NM 29.40%EV -4.41%E -1.36%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 2.13I 46.95%NM 44.72%EV -5.25%E -2.47%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 3.68I 27.17%NM 25.88%EV -4.27%E -1.16%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-06 11:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.74%EV -5.59%E -1.75%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.89%EV -5.70%E -2.69%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.38%EV -2.44%E -0.652%K -0.889%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-06 10:24 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -5.59%E -1.75%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.12%EV -6.59%E -3.14%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.27%EV -2.44%E -0.652%K -0.889%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-09 10:04 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.43%EV -5.59%E -1.75%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.42%EV -5.70%E -2.69%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -6.35%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-09 09:04 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.43%EV -5.59%E -1.75%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.42%EV -5.70%E -2.69%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -6.35%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-09 09:04 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -5.59%E -1.75%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -6.59%E -3.14%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -8.95%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-09 10:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -5.59%E -1.75%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -8.81%E -4.30%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -8.95%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-09 11:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.35%EV -6.18%E -1.94%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.87%EV -7.48%E -3.59%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 3.62I 27.62%NM 25.78%EV -5.83%E -1.61%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-06 10:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.74%EV -7.07%E -2.24%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.60%EV -6.59%E -3.14%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -5.05%E -1.38%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-09 10:16 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -7.07%E -2.24%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.14%EV -3.47%E -1.60%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.14%EV -10.25%E -2.97%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-07 10:09 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -7.07%E -2.24%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.14%EV -3.47%E -1.60%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.14%EV -10.25%E -2.97%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-07 10:09 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -7.07%E -2.24%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.99%EV -7.48%E -3.59%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -3.75%E -1.01%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-06 10:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.63%EV -7.07%E -2.24%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -6.59%E -3.14%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -6.35%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-09 10:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -7.07%E -2.24%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.18%EV -7.48%E -3.59%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.64%EV -10.25%E -2.97%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-07 10:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.88%EV -7.07%E -2.24%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.37%EV -8.81%E -4.30%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -11.55%E -3.40%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-07 10:09 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -8.54%E -2.76%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -6.59%E -3.14%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -6.35%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-08 10:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.85%EV -8.54%E -2.76%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.14%EV -8.81%E -4.30%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.01%EV -3.75%E -1.01%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-06 10:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -8.54%E -2.76%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.11%EV -4.81%E -2.25%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.13%EV -11.55%E -3.40%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-07 10:09 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -8.54%E -2.76%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.11%EV -4.81%E -2.25%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.13%EV -11.55%E -3.40%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-07 10:09 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.54%E -2.76%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -5.70%E -2.69%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -11.55%E -3.40%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-07 10:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.54%E -2.76%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -5.70%E -2.69%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -11.55%E -3.40%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-07 10:09 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.54%E -2.76%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -5.70%E -2.69%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -11.55%E -3.40%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-07 10:09 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.54%E -2.76%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -5.70%E -2.69%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -11.55%E -3.40%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-07 10:08 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.54%E -2.76%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -5.70%E -2.69%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -11.55%E -3.40%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-07 10:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.54%E -2.76%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -5.70%E -2.69%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -11.55%E -3.40%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-07 10:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.54%E -2.76%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -5.70%E -2.69%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -11.55%E -3.40%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-07 10:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -8.54%E -2.76%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -6.59%E -3.14%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -11.55%E -3.40%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-06 11:15 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -8.54%E -2.76%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -6.59%E -3.14%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -11.55%E -3.40%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-06 11:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -8.54%E -2.76%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -6.59%E -3.14%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -11.55%E -3.40%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-06 11:14 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -8.54%E -2.76%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -6.59%E -3.14%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -11.55%E -3.40%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-06 11:14 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -8.54%E -2.76%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -8.81%E -4.30%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -8.95%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-06 10:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -8.54%E -2.76%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -11.04%E -5.52%K -11.04%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -6.35%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-07 10:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.98%EV -10.02%E -3.28%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.61%EV -8.81%E -4.30%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -6.35%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-06 10:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.74%EV -10.02%E -3.28%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.19%EV -6.59%E -3.14%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.07%EV -12.85%E -3.84%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-07 10:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.74%EV -10.02%E -3.28%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.19%EV -6.59%E -3.14%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.07%EV -12.85%E -3.84%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-07 10:09 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.74%EV -10.02%E -3.28%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.19%EV -6.59%E -3.14%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.07%EV -12.85%E -3.84%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-07 10:09 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.98%EV -10.02%E -3.28%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 44.64%EV -11.92%E -6.02%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.38%EV -12.85%E -3.84%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-08 10:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.03I 33.00%NM 28.94%EV -10.61%E -3.50%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 44.73%EV -12.81%E -6.54%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 26.33%EV -13.37%E -4.02%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-09-07 10:08 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.55%EV -11.49%E -3.83%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.64%EV -6.59%E -3.14%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.81%EV -7.65%E -2.15%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-09 15:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -11.49%E -3.83%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -8.81%E -4.30%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -11.55%E -3.40%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-08 10:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -11.49%E -3.83%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -8.81%E -4.30%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -11.55%E -3.40%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-08 10:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -11.49%E -3.83%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -8.81%E -4.30%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -11.55%E -3.40%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-08 10:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -11.49%E -3.83%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -8.81%E -4.30%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -11.55%E -3.40%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-08 10:04 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -11.49%E -3.83%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -11.04%E -5.52%K -11.04%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -8.95%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-09 10:04 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -11.49%E -3.83%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -11.04%E -5.52%K -11.04%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -8.95%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-07 10:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -11.49%E -3.83%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -11.04%E -5.52%K -11.04%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -8.95%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-09-07 07:35 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.78%EV -12.97%E -4.40%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 44.37%EV -11.92%E -6.02%K -12.17%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.84%EV -11.55%E -3.40%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-09-07 10:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 3.23I 30.96%NM 29.75% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 44.28% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.97% | 4.1% | 2026-09-09 10:19 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.54% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.86% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60% | 4.2% | 2026-09-09 16:51 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.54% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.86% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60% | 4.2% | 2026-09-09 16:51 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.54% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.86% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60% | 4.2% | 2026-09-09 16:51 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.64% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.73% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.63% | 5.4% | 2026-09-09 16:20 |