Language:English
Nagoya Grampus v FC Machida Zelvia
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Nagoya Grampus (Local)
Prediction 30.71%3.26fair odd
EV -2.04%
Edge -0.639%
Kelly -0.931%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.19
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.64%30.66%30.72%31.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.033.003.1935.71%33.05%33.33%31.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
FC Machida Zelvia (Visit)
Prediction 41.90%2.39fair odd
EV -1.96%
Edge -0.837%
Kelly -1.46%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.34
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.43%41.96%41.85%43.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.182.192.3448.78%45.86%45.77%42.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.39%3.65fair odd
EV -1.39%
Edge -0.385%
Kelly -0.534%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.59%27.38%27.42%28.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.373.403.6031.25%29.71%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nagoya Grampus (Local): 30.71%; FC Machida Zelvia (Visit): 41.90%; Draw: 27.39%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.65. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.60, with an expected value of -1.39%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.19I 31.35%NM 29.78%EV -2.04%E -0.639%K -0.931%G +0.000% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 41.85%EV -4.89%E -2.15%K -3.85%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.36%EV -8.24%E -2.46%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-06 08:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -3.27%E -1.04%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.14%EV -9.08%E -4.18%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.14%EV -5.50%E -1.59%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-06 08:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -3.27%E -1.04%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.14%EV -9.08%E -4.18%K -7.76%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.14%EV -5.50%E -1.59%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-06 08:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.13I 31.95%NM 30.93%EV -3.88%E -1.24%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.73%EV -2.80%E -1.20%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.54I 28.25%NM 27.35%EV -3.03%E -0.856%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-09-06 08:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.87%EV -4.80%E -1.55%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.54%EV -5.73%E -2.55%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.59%EV -1.39%E -0.385%K -0.534%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-06 07:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -4.80%E -1.55%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -5.73%E -2.55%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-06 07:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -4.80%E -1.55%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.82%E -3.56%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-06 07:15 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -4.80%E -1.55%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -9.92%E -4.61%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-06 07:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -4.80%E -1.55%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.11%EV -10.34%E -4.83%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.13%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-06 08:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -4.80%E -1.55%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.11%EV -10.34%E -4.83%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.13%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-06 08:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -4.80%E -1.55%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -11.18%E -5.27%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-06 08:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -4.80%E -1.55%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -11.18%E -5.27%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-06 08:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -4.80%E -1.55%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -11.18%E -5.27%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-06 08:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -4.80%E -1.55%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -11.18%E -5.27%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-06 08:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -4.80%E -1.55%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -11.18%E -5.27%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-06 08:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -4.80%E -1.55%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -11.18%E -5.27%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-06 08:25 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -4.80%E -1.55%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -11.18%E -5.27%K -9.98%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-06 08:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.99%EV -6.34%E -2.08%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -5.73%E -2.55%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.00%EV -4.13%E -1.18%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-06 07:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -6.34%E -2.08%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.84%EV -5.73%E -2.55%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.29%EV -5.50%E -1.59%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-06 08:53 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.74%EV -6.34%E -2.08%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.19%EV -12.01%E -5.72%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.07%EV -8.24%E -2.46%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-06 08:25 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.74%EV -6.34%E -2.08%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.19%EV -12.01%E -5.72%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.07%EV -8.24%E -2.46%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-06 08:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.74%EV -6.34%E -2.08%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.19%EV -12.01%E -5.72%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.07%EV -8.24%E -2.46%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-06 08:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.04I 32.89%NM 30.71%EV -6.64%E -2.19%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 41.67%EV -6.15%E -2.74%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 27.62%EV -7.41%E -2.19%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-06 08:54 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.86%EV -7.87%E -2.62%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.84%EV -1.96%E -0.837%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.30%EV -4.13%E -1.18%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-06 08:54 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.86%EV -7.87%E -2.62%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.84%EV -1.96%E -0.837%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.30%EV -4.13%E -1.18%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-06 08:54 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.86%EV -7.87%E -2.62%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.84%EV -1.96%E -0.837%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.30%EV -4.13%E -1.18%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-06 08:54 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -7.87%E -2.62%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -5.73%E -2.55%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-06 08:14 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -7.87%E -2.62%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -5.73%E -2.55%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-06 07:25 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -7.87%E -2.62%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.84%EV -7.82%E -3.56%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -8.24%E -2.46%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-06 08:54 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -7.87%E -2.62%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 41.45%EV -6.99%E -3.15%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -9.60%E -2.91%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-06 07:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.87%E -2.62%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -7.82%E -3.56%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.60%E -2.91%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-06 07:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.87%E -2.62%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -7.82%E -3.56%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.60%E -2.91%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-06 07:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -7.87%E -2.62%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -7.82%E -3.56%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -10.97%E -3.38%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-06 08:54 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -7.87%E -2.62%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -7.82%E -3.56%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -10.97%E -3.38%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-06 08:54 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -7.87%E -2.62%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -7.82%E -3.56%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -10.97%E -3.38%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-06 08:54 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -7.87%E -2.62%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -7.82%E -3.56%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -10.97%E -3.38%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-06 08:54 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -7.87%E -2.62%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -9.92%E -4.61%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.60%E -2.91%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-06 08:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -7.87%E -2.62%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -12.01%E -5.72%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -10.97%E -3.38%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-06 07:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -7.87%E -2.62%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -12.01%E -5.72%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -10.97%E -3.38%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-06 07:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -7.87%E -2.62%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -12.01%E -5.72%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -10.97%E -3.38%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-06 07:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -7.87%E -2.62%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -12.01%E -5.72%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -10.97%E -3.38%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-06 07:15 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -7.87%E -2.62%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -14.11%E -6.88%K -13.44%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -9.60%E -2.91%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-06 08:35 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.17%EV -9.41%E -3.19%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.79%EV -7.82%E -3.56%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-06 07:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.87%EV -9.41%E -3.19%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.35%EV -9.92%E -4.61%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-06 07:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -10.94%E -3.77%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -9.92%E -4.61%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-06 07:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -11.56%E -4.01%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.14%EV -7.82%E -3.56%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -9.60%E -2.91%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-06 08:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -11.56%E -4.01%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.14%EV -7.82%E -3.56%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -9.60%E -2.91%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-06 08:45 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -11.56%E -4.01%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.70%EV -9.92%E -4.61%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.17%EV -9.60%E -2.91%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-06 07:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.05%EV -12.48%E -4.38%K -6.75%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.14%EV -12.01%E -5.72%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.81%EV -9.60%E -2.91%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-09-06 07:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -14.01%E -5.01%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.43%EV -7.82%E -3.56%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.80%EV -12.34%E -3.86%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-06 08:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.93% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.58% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.49% | 1.0% | 2026-09-06 08:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.81% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.42% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.77% | 1.4% | 2026-09-06 08:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.81% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.42% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.77% | 1.4% | 2026-09-06 08:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.81% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.42% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.77% | 1.4% | 2026-09-06 08:50 |
| Kalshi◎ | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.39% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 42.12% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.49% | 1.9% | 2026-09-06 08:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.81% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 41.47% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.73% | 3.1% | 2026-09-06 08:55 |