Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Nagoya Grampus v FC Machida Zelvia

Início: 2026-09-06 09:03 UTC

Final: Nagoya Grampus 1–3 FC Machida Zelvia

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

50 casas de apostas (16 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Nagoya Grampus (Local)

Previsão 30.71%3.26odd justa
EV -2.04%
Vantagem -0.639%
Kelly -0.931%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.19

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
29.64%30.66%30.72%31.86%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.803.033.003.1935.71%33.05%33.33%31.35%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

FC Machida Zelvia (Visitante)

Previsão 41.90%2.39odd justa
EV -1.96%
Vantagem -0.837%
Kelly -1.46%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.34

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
40.43%41.96%41.85%43.39%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.052.182.192.3448.78%45.86%45.77%42.74%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 27.39%3.65odd justa
EV -1.39%
Vantagem -0.385%
Kelly -0.534%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.60

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
26.59%27.38%27.42%28.36%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.203.373.403.6031.25%29.71%29.41%27.78%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Nagoya Grampus (Local): 30.71%; FC Machida Zelvia (Visitante): 41.90%; Empate: 27.39%. Para Empate, essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.65. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 3.60, com valor esperado de -1.39%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (50 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
1xBet🎯3.19I 31.35%NM 29.78%EV -2.04%E -0.639%K -0.931%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.85%EV -4.89%E -2.15%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.36%EV -8.24%E -2.46%K -3.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-06 08:50
ATG (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -3.27%E -1.04%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.14%EV -9.08%E -4.18%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.14%EV -5.50%E -1.59%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-06 08:25
Svenska Spel🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -3.27%E -1.04%K -1.52%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.14%EV -9.08%E -4.18%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.14%EV -5.50%E -1.59%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-06 08:25
Pinnacle🎯3.13I 31.95%NM 30.93%EV -3.88%E -1.24%K -1.82%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.73%EV -2.80%E -1.20%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 27.35%EV -3.03%E -0.856%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-06 08:55
Coolbet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.87%EV -4.80%E -1.55%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.54%EV -5.73%E -2.55%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.59%EV -1.39%E -0.385%K -0.534%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-06 07:25
Unibet (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -4.80%E -1.55%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -5.73%E -2.55%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-06 07:15
BetMGM🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -4.80%E -1.55%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.82%E -3.56%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-06 07:15
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -4.80%E -1.55%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -9.92%E -4.61%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-06 07:15
BetRivers🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -4.80%E -1.55%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.11%EV -10.34%E -4.83%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.13%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-06 08:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.76%EV -4.80%E -1.55%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.11%EV -10.34%E -4.83%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.13%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-06 08:25
Unibet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -4.80%E -1.55%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -11.18%E -5.27%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-06 08:25
TABtouch🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -4.80%E -1.55%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -11.18%E -5.27%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-06 08:25
Unibet (NL)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -4.80%E -1.55%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -11.18%E -5.27%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-06 08:25
Unibet (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -4.80%E -1.55%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -11.18%E -5.27%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-06 08:25
Casumo🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -4.80%E -1.55%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -11.18%E -5.27%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-06 08:25
Grosvenor🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -4.80%E -1.55%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -11.18%E -5.27%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-06 08:25
betPARX🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -4.80%E -1.55%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -11.18%E -5.27%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-06 08:25
DraftKings🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.99%EV -6.34%E -2.08%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -5.73%E -2.55%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.00%EV -4.13%E -1.18%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-06 07:25
Bovada🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -6.34%E -2.08%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.84%EV -5.73%E -2.55%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.29%EV -5.50%E -1.59%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-06 08:53
Virgin Bet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.74%EV -6.34%E -2.08%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.19%EV -12.01%E -5.72%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.07%EV -8.24%E -2.46%K -3.50%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-06 08:25
PMU (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.74%EV -6.34%E -2.08%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.19%EV -12.01%E -5.72%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.07%EV -8.24%E -2.46%K -3.50%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-06 08:25
LiveScore Bet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.74%EV -6.34%E -2.08%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.19%EV -12.01%E -5.72%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.07%EV -8.24%E -2.46%K -3.50%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-06 08:25
Marathon Bet🎯3.04I 32.89%NM 30.71%EV -6.64%E -2.19%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 41.67%EV -6.15%E -2.74%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.62%EV -7.41%E -2.19%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-06 08:54
BetOnline.ag🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.86%EV -7.87%E -2.62%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.84%EV -1.96%E -0.837%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.30%EV -4.13%E -1.18%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-06 08:54
LowVig.ag🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.86%EV -7.87%E -2.62%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.84%EV -1.96%E -0.837%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.30%EV -4.13%E -1.18%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-06 08:54
BetAnything🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.86%EV -7.87%E -2.62%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.84%EV -1.96%E -0.837%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.30%EV -4.13%E -1.18%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-06 08:54
SportsBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -7.87%E -2.62%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -5.73%E -2.55%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-06 08:14
FanDuel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -7.87%E -2.62%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -5.73%E -2.55%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-06 07:25
PlayUp🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -7.87%E -2.62%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.84%EV -7.82%E -3.56%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -8.24%E -2.46%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-06 08:54
Betsson🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -7.87%E -2.62%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.45%EV -6.99%E -3.15%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -9.60%E -2.91%K -4.18%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-06 07:15
NordicBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.87%E -2.62%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -7.82%E -3.56%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.60%E -2.91%K -4.18%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-06 07:15
Fanatics🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -7.87%E -2.62%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -7.82%E -3.56%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.60%E -2.91%K -4.18%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-06 07:20
888sport🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -7.87%E -2.62%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -7.82%E -3.56%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -10.97%E -3.38%K -4.88%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-06 08:54
888sport (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -7.87%E -2.62%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -7.82%E -3.56%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -10.97%E -3.38%K -4.88%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-06 08:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -7.87%E -2.62%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -7.82%E -3.56%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -10.97%E -3.38%K -4.88%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-06 08:54
William Hill🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -7.87%E -2.62%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -7.82%E -3.56%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -10.97%E -3.38%K -4.88%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-06 08:54
Betclic (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -7.87%E -2.62%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -9.92%E -4.61%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.60%E -2.91%K -4.18%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-06 08:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -7.87%E -2.62%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -12.01%E -5.72%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -10.97%E -3.38%K -4.88%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-06 07:15
Neds🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -7.87%E -2.62%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -12.01%E -5.72%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -10.97%E -3.38%K -4.88%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-06 07:15
Coral🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -7.87%E -2.62%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -12.01%E -5.72%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -10.97%E -3.38%K -4.88%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-06 07:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -7.87%E -2.62%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -12.01%E -5.72%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -10.97%E -3.38%K -4.88%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-06 07:15
Unibet (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -7.87%E -2.62%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -14.11%E -6.88%K -13.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -9.60%E -2.91%K -4.18%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-06 08:35
Bet Right🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.17%EV -9.41%E -3.19%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.79%EV -7.82%E -3.56%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-06 07:25
Winamax (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.87%EV -9.41%E -3.19%K -4.82%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.35%EV -9.92%E -4.61%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-06 07:15
Betr (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -10.94%E -3.77%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -9.92%E -4.61%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -6.87%E -2.02%K -2.86%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-06 07:25
Paddy Power🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -11.56%E -4.01%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.14%EV -7.82%E -3.56%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -9.60%E -2.91%K -4.18%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-06 08:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -11.56%E -4.01%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.14%EV -7.82%E -3.56%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -9.60%E -2.91%K -4.18%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-06 08:45
BoyleSports🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -11.56%E -4.01%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.70%EV -9.92%E -4.61%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.17%EV -9.60%E -2.91%K -4.18%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-06 07:15
Winamax (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.05%EV -12.48%E -4.38%K -6.75%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.14%EV -12.01%E -5.72%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.81%EV -9.60%E -2.91%K -4.18%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-06 07:15
Sky Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -14.01%E -5.01%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.43%EV -7.82%E -3.56%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.80%EV -12.34%E -3.86%K -5.61%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-06 08:15
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook◎3.20I 31.25%NM 30.93%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.58%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.49%1.0%2026-09-06 08:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.20I 31.25%NM 30.81%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.42%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.77%1.4%2026-09-06 08:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.20I 31.25%NM 30.81%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.42%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.77%1.4%2026-09-06 08:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.20I 31.25%NM 30.81%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.42%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.77%1.4%2026-09-06 08:50
Kalshi◎3.23I 30.96%NM 30.39%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.12%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.49%1.9%2026-09-06 08:55
Smarkets◎3.15I 31.75%NM 30.81%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.47%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.73%3.1%2026-09-06 08:55