Language:English
Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC v Nagoya Grampus
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC (Local)
Prediction 59.99%1.67fair odd
EV -3.42%
Edge -2.12%
Kelly -5.60%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.61
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.74%60.13%59.99%62.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.531.531.6168.97%65.52%65.36%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Nagoya Grampus (Visit)
Prediction 18.71%5.34fair odd
EV +4.80%
Edge +0.857%
Kelly +1.04%
Growth +0.050%
assuming max odds 5.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.73%18.61%18.77%19.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.055.005.6022.22%19.81%20.00%17.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 21.30%4.70fair odd
EV -3.31%
Edge -0.730%
Kelly -0.936%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.54
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.41%21.26%21.24%22.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.304.344.5425.00%23.25%23.04%22.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hiroshima Sanfrecce FC (Local): 59.99%; Nagoya Grampus (Visit): 18.71%; Draw: 21.30%. For Nagoya Grampus (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.34. 15 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.80%.
Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.45%EV -10.02%E -6.68%K -20.03%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.73%EV +4.80%E +0.857%K +1.04%G +0.050% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -4.17%E -0.926%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-02 09:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.45%EV -10.02%E -6.68%K -20.03%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.73%EV +4.80%E +0.857%K +1.04%G +0.050% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -4.17%E -0.926%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-02 09:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.49%EV -7.02%E -4.53%K -12.76%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.33%EV +2.93%E +0.532%K +0.651%G +0.019% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.18%EV -4.17%E -0.926%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-02 08:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.13%EV -10.62%E -7.12%K -21.66%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.83%EV +2.93%E +0.532%K +0.651%G +0.019% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.04%EV -6.30%E -1.43%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-02 09:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.13%EV -10.62%E -7.12%K -21.66%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.83%EV +2.93%E +0.532%K +0.651%G +0.019% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.04%EV -6.30%E -1.43%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-02 09:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.29%EV -11.22%E -7.58%K -23.37%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV +2.93%E +0.532%K +0.651%G +0.019% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.95%EV -6.30%E -1.43%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-02 09:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.29%EV -11.22%E -7.58%K -23.37%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV +2.93%E +0.532%K +0.651%G +0.019% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.95%EV -6.30%E -1.43%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-02 09:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.29%EV -11.22%E -7.58%K -23.37%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV +2.93%E +0.532%K +0.651%G +0.019% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.95%EV -6.30%E -1.43%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-02 09:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.29%EV -11.22%E -7.58%K -23.37%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV +2.93%E +0.532%K +0.651%G +0.019% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.95%EV -6.30%E -1.43%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-02 09:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.29%EV -11.22%E -7.58%K -23.37%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV +2.93%E +0.532%K +0.651%G +0.019% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.95%EV -6.30%E -1.43%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-02 09:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.29%EV -11.22%E -7.58%K -23.37%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV +2.93%E +0.532%K +0.651%G +0.019% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.95%EV -6.30%E -1.43%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-02 09:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.29%EV -11.22%E -7.58%K -23.37%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV +2.93%E +0.532%K +0.651%G +0.019% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.95%EV -6.30%E -1.43%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-02 09:03 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 62.27%EV -12.42%E -8.50%K -26.99%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.83%EV +1.06%E +0.196%K +0.240%G +0.003% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.90%EV -7.36%E -1.69%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-02 09:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 62.27%EV -12.42%E -8.50%K -26.99%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.83%EV +1.06%E +0.196%K +0.240%G +0.003% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.90%EV -7.36%E -1.69%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-02 09:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 62.43%EV -13.02%E -8.98%K -28.92%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.76%EV +1.06%E +0.196%K +0.240%G +0.003% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.81%EV -7.36%E -1.69%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-02 09:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.68%EV -4.62%E -2.90%K -7.83%G +0.000% | 5.34I 18.73%NM 18.07%EV -0.067%E -0.013%K -0.015%G +0.000% | 4.54I 22.03%NM 21.25%EV -3.31%E -0.730%K -0.936%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-09-02 09:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.75%EV -4.62%E -2.90%K -7.83%G +0.000% | 5.31I 18.83%NM 17.89%EV -0.628%E -0.118%K -0.146%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.35%EV -9.49%E -2.23%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-02 09:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.76%EV -7.02%E -4.53%K -12.76%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.64%EV -1.75%E -0.334%K -0.412%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.59%EV -12.68%E -3.09%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-02 09:45 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.55%EV -8.82%E -5.80%K -16.95%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.53%EV -1.75%E -0.334%K -0.412%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -10.55%E -2.51%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-02 08:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.54%EV -7.62%E -4.95%K -14.10%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.93%EV -2.69%E -0.517%K -0.640%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.53%EV -7.79%E -1.80%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-02 09:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.53%EV -7.62%E -4.95%K -14.10%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.28%EV -4.56%E -0.894%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -6.30%E -1.43%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-02 08:34 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.24%EV -3.42%E -2.12%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV -6.43%E -1.29%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.68%EV -6.30%E -1.43%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-02 09:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.24%EV -3.42%E -2.12%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV -6.43%E -1.29%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.68%EV -6.30%E -1.43%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-02 09:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.14%EV -5.82%E -3.70%K -10.20%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.88%EV -6.43%E -1.29%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.98%EV -4.17%E -0.926%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-02 09:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.71%EV -6.42%E -4.11%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.63%EV -6.43%E -1.29%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.66%EV -8.43%E -1.96%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-02 08:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.71%EV -6.42%E -4.11%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.63%EV -6.43%E -1.29%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.66%EV -8.43%E -1.96%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-02 08:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.01%EV -7.02%E -4.53%K -12.76%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -6.43%E -1.29%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.38%EV -7.36%E -1.69%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-02 08:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.22%EV -10.02%E -6.68%K -20.03%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.37%EV -6.43%E -1.29%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.41%EV -4.17%E -0.926%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-02 08:54 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -10.02%E -6.68%K -20.03%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -6.43%E -1.29%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -10.55%E -2.51%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-02 08:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.62%EV -5.82%E -3.70%K -10.20%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.10%EV -8.30%E -1.69%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -6.30%E -1.43%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-02 09:40 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.62%EV -5.82%E -3.70%K -10.20%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.10%EV -8.30%E -1.69%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -6.30%E -1.43%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-02 09:38 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.37%EV -7.02%E -4.53%K -12.76%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 18.97%EV -9.24%E -1.90%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.65%EV -9.49%E -2.23%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-02 09:40 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.18%EV -5.82%E -3.70%K -10.20%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.36%EV -10.17%E -2.12%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.46%EV -7.79%E -1.80%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-02 08:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.10%EV -7.02%E -4.53%K -12.76%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.09%EV -10.17%E -2.12%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.81%EV -10.55%E -2.51%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-02 08:49 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 59.87%EV -8.82%E -5.80%K -16.95%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.96%EV -10.17%E -2.12%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.17%EV -8.43%E -1.96%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-02 09:43 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.42%EV -8.22%E -5.37%K -15.50%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.94%EV -10.17%E -2.12%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -10.55%E -2.51%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-02 08:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.42%EV -8.22%E -5.37%K -15.50%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.94%EV -10.17%E -2.12%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -10.55%E -2.51%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-02 08:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.42%EV -8.22%E -5.37%K -15.50%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.94%EV -10.17%E -2.12%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -10.55%E -2.51%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-02 08:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 59.73%EV -8.82%E -5.80%K -16.95%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.91%EV -10.17%E -2.12%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.36%EV -9.49%E -2.23%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-02 09:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.30%EV -8.22%E -5.37%K -15.50%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.10%EV -11.11%E -2.34%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.60%EV -10.55%E -2.51%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-02 08:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 59.30%EV -8.22%E -5.37%K -15.50%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.10%EV -11.11%E -2.34%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.60%EV -10.55%E -2.51%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-02 09:45 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 59.22%EV -9.42%E -6.24%K -18.46%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.23%EV -12.98%E -2.79%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 21.55%EV -11.62%E -2.80%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-02 09:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 59.67%EV -8.82%E -5.80%K -16.95%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.72%EV -13.92%E -3.03%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.61%EV -6.30%E -1.43%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-02 09:40 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.31%EV -8.22%E -5.37%K -15.50%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.39%EV -13.92%E -3.03%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.30%EV -14.81%E -3.70%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-02 08:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.74%EV -7.02%E -4.53%K -12.76%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.89%EV -15.79%E -3.51%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.37%EV -14.81%E -3.70%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-02 08:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.74%EV -7.02%E -4.53%K -12.76%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.89%EV -15.79%E -3.51%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.37%EV -14.81%E -3.70%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-02 08:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.74%EV -7.02%E -4.53%K -12.76%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.89%EV -15.79%E -3.51%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.37%EV -14.81%E -3.70%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-02 08:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.74%EV -7.02%E -4.53%K -12.76%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.89%EV -15.79%E -3.51%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.37%EV -14.81%E -3.70%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-02 08:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.45%EV -10.02%E -6.68%K -20.03%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.82%EV -15.79%E -3.51%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.74%EV -8.43%E -1.96%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-02 09:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.15%EV -10.02%E -6.68%K -20.03%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.72%EV -15.79%E -3.51%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.13%EV -10.55%E -2.51%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-09-02 09:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.43% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.02% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.55% | 0.9% | 2026-09-02 09:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.43% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.02% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.55% | 0.9% | 2026-09-02 09:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.43% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.02% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.55% | 0.9% | 2026-09-02 09:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.58% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.95% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.47% | 1.3% | 2026-09-02 09:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.73% | 5.56I 17.99%NM 17.65% | 4.76I 21.01%NM 20.62% | 1.9% | 2026-09-02 09:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 60.53% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.16% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.32% | 2.0% | 2026-09-02 09:55 |