Language:English
Cagliari v Arezzo
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Cagliari (Local)
Prediction 57.28%1.75fair odd
EV -4.91%
Edge -2.96%
Kelly -7.44%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.66
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.96%57.48%57.23%61.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.491.581.601.6667.11%63.16%62.50%60.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Arezzo (Visit)
Prediction 17.93%5.58fair odd
EV +7.60%
Edge +1.27%
Kelly +1.52%
Growth +0.116%
assuming max odds 6.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.33%17.68%18.10%19.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.705.315.256.0021.28%18.83%19.05%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 24.78%4.03fair odd
EV +4.09%
Edge +0.974%
Kelly +1.28%
Growth +0.052%
assuming max odds 4.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.46%24.84%24.67%25.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.843.804.2028.57%26.03%26.32%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cagliari (Local): 57.28%; Arezzo (Visit): 17.93%; Draw: 24.78%. For Arezzo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.58. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.60%.
Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.13%EV -12.36%E -8.08%K -23.32%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.33%EV +7.60%E +1.27%K +1.52%G +0.116% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -7.06%E -1.88%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-14 16:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.27%EV -11.79%E -7.65%K -21.82%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.27%EV +4.02%E +0.692%K +0.837%G +0.034% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV +4.09%E +0.974%K +1.28%G +0.052% | 6.0% | 2026-08-14 16:24 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.27%EV -11.79%E -7.65%K -21.82%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.27%EV +4.02%E +0.692%K +0.837%G +0.034% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV +4.09%E +0.974%K +1.28%G +0.052% | 6.0% | 2026-08-14 16:24 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.27%EV -11.79%E -7.65%K -21.82%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.27%EV +4.02%E +0.692%K +0.837%G +0.034% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV +4.09%E +0.974%K +1.28%G +0.052% | 6.0% | 2026-08-14 16:24 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.27%EV -11.79%E -7.65%K -21.82%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.27%EV +4.02%E +0.692%K +0.837%G +0.034% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV +4.09%E +0.974%K +1.28%G +0.052% | 6.0% | 2026-08-14 16:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.27%EV -11.79%E -7.65%K -21.82%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.27%EV +4.02%E +0.692%K +0.837%G +0.034% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV +4.09%E +0.974%K +1.28%G +0.052% | 6.0% | 2026-08-14 16:24 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.70%EV -4.91%E -2.96%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 5.58I 17.92%NM 17.16%EV +0.071%E +0.013%K +0.015%G +0.000% | 3.81I 26.25%NM 25.14%EV -5.57%E -1.46%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-14 16:24 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.84%EV -7.20%E -4.45%K -11.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.33%EV -1.36%E -0.248%K -0.303%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.83%EV -0.864%E -0.216%K -0.288%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-14 16:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.52%EV -14.08%E -9.38%K -28.15%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.50%EV -1.36%E -0.248%K -0.303%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.98%EV -2.10%E -0.532%K -0.713%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-14 16:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.52%EV -14.08%E -9.38%K -28.15%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.50%EV -1.36%E -0.248%K -0.303%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.98%EV -2.10%E -0.532%K -0.713%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-14 16:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.52%EV -14.08%E -9.38%K -28.15%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.50%EV -1.36%E -0.248%K -0.303%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.98%EV -2.10%E -0.532%K -0.713%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-14 16:14 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 60.50%EV -14.65%E -9.83%K -29.90%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.39%EV -1.36%E -0.248%K -0.303%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.11%EV -3.34%E -0.857%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-14 16:24 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.50%EV -10.07%E -6.41%K -17.66%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.33%EV -4.95%E -0.934%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -5.82%E -1.53%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-14 16:04 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.19%EV -5.48%E -3.32%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -5.85%E -1.11%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.83%EV -5.82%E -1.53%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-14 16:19 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.19%EV -5.48%E -3.32%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -5.85%E -1.11%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.83%EV -5.82%E -1.53%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-14 16:24 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.79%EV -7.78%E -4.83%K -12.75%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.72%EV -5.85%E -1.11%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.49%EV -5.82%E -1.53%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-14 16:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.25%EV -9.49%E -6.01%K -16.37%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.53%EV -5.85%E -1.11%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -5.82%E -1.53%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-14 16:14 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.13%EV -4.91%E -2.96%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -6.74%E -1.30%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.63%EV -4.58%E -1.19%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 16:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.68%EV -5.48%E -3.32%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -10.33%E -2.07%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.61%EV -5.82%E -1.53%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-14 16:25 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -10.07%E -6.41%K -17.66%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -10.33%E -2.07%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -0.864%E -0.216%K -0.288%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-14 15:59 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.76%EV -7.20%E -4.45%K -11.62%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.39%EV -10.33%E -2.07%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.85%EV -8.30%E -2.24%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-14 16:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.44%EV -8.35%E -5.22%K -13.91%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.38%EV -10.33%E -2.07%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -5.82%E -1.53%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-14 16:15 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.52%EV -7.78%E -4.83%K -12.75%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.20%EV -10.33%E -2.07%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -10.78%E -2.99%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-14 16:18 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.52%EV -7.78%E -4.83%K -12.75%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.20%EV -10.33%E -2.07%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -10.78%E -2.99%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-14 16:18 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.90%EV -10.07%E -6.41%K -17.66%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -10.33%E -2.07%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -5.82%E -1.53%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-14 16:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.96%EV -7.20%E -4.45%K -11.62%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.13%EV -10.33%E -2.07%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -13.26%E -3.79%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-14 16:24 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.12%EV -7.78%E -4.83%K -12.75%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.07%EV -10.33%E -2.07%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -13.26%E -3.79%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-14 16:24 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.12%EV -7.78%E -4.83%K -12.75%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.07%EV -10.33%E -2.07%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -13.26%E -3.79%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-14 16:24 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.12%EV -7.78%E -4.83%K -12.75%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.07%EV -10.33%E -2.07%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -13.26%E -3.79%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-14 16:24 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.77%EV -8.35%E -5.22%K -13.91%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.33%EV -15.71%E -3.34%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -5.82%E -1.53%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-14 16:24 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.71I 58.48%NM 58.23% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.88% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.89% | 0.4% | 2026-08-14 16:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.37% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.82% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81% | 0.8% | 2026-08-14 16:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.37% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.82% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81% | 0.8% | 2026-08-14 16:25 |