The School of Odds
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Cagliari v Arezzo

2026-08-14 16:30 UTC — Coppa Italia

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cagliari (Local)

Prediction 66.46%1.50fair odd
EV -5.63%
Edge -3.96%
Kelly -13.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.61%66.57%66.34%70.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.311.371.361.4276.34%73.17%73.53%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Arezzo (Visit)

Prediction 12.88%7.76fair odd
EV +9.51%
Edge +1.12%
Kelly +1.27%
Growth +0.120%

assuming max odds 8.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.00%12.84%13.05%13.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.507.707.508.5015.38%12.99%13.33%11.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.66%4.84fair odd
EV +3.29%
Edge +0.658%
Kelly +0.823%
Growth +0.027%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.70%20.60%20.61%21.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.334.654.655.0023.09%21.49%21.51%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Cagliari (Local): 66.46%; Arezzo (Visit): 12.88%; Draw: 20.66%. For Arezzo (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.76. 13 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 8.50, producing a positive expected value of +9.51%.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
betfred_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.07%EV -6.96%E -4.97%K -17.39%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.21%EV +9.51%E +1.12%K +1.27%G +0.120%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.72%EV -4.97%E -1.08%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-13 09:49
Unibet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.72%EV -10.28%E -7.62%K -29.37%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.07%EV +9.51%E +1.12%K +1.27%G +0.120%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.21%EV +1.23%E +0.250%K +0.314%G +0.004%6.2%2026-08-13 09:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.72%EV -10.28%E -7.62%K -29.37%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.07%EV +9.51%E +1.12%K +1.27%G +0.120%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.21%EV +1.23%E +0.250%K +0.314%G +0.004%6.2%2026-08-13 09:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.72%EV -10.28%E -7.62%K -29.37%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.07%EV +9.51%E +1.12%K +1.27%G +0.120%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.21%EV +1.23%E +0.250%K +0.314%G +0.004%6.2%2026-08-13 09:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.72%EV -10.28%E -7.62%K -29.37%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.07%EV +9.51%E +1.12%K +1.27%G +0.120%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.21%EV +1.23%E +0.250%K +0.314%G +0.004%6.2%2026-08-13 09:49
ATG (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.72%EV -10.28%E -7.62%K -29.37%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.07%EV +9.51%E +1.12%K +1.27%G +0.120%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.21%EV +1.23%E +0.250%K +0.314%G +0.004%6.2%2026-08-13 09:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.30%EV -11.61%E -8.73%K -35.18%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV +9.51%E +1.12%K +1.27%G +0.120%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV +3.29%E +0.658%K +0.823%G +0.027%7.0%2026-08-13 09:49
Paddy Power🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.30%EV -11.61%E -8.73%K -35.18%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV +9.51%E +1.12%K +1.27%G +0.120%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV +3.29%E +0.658%K +0.823%G +0.027%7.0%2026-08-13 09:55
SportsBet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 70.12%EV -12.94%E -9.88%K -41.74%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.13%EV +6.29%E +0.762%K +0.867%G +0.054%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.75%EV +1.23%E +0.250%K +0.314%G +0.004%8.9%2026-08-13 09:49
Sky Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.14%EV -11.61%E -8.73%K -35.18%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.50%EV +3.06%E +0.383%K +0.438%G +0.013%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.36%EV -1.87%E -0.394%K -0.499%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-13 09:50
Grosvenor🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.00%EV -11.61%E -8.73%K -35.18%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.47%EV +3.06%E +0.383%K +0.438%G +0.013%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.53%EV -2.91%E -0.618%K -0.785%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-13 09:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.16%EV -12.27%E -9.30%K -38.36%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.41%EV +3.06%E +0.383%K +0.438%G +0.013%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.42%EV -2.91%E -0.618%K -0.785%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-13 09:49
LiveScore Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.16%EV -12.27%E -9.30%K -38.36%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.41%EV +3.06%E +0.383%K +0.438%G +0.013%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.42%EV -2.91%E -0.618%K -0.785%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-13 09:50
Codere (IT)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.47%EV -6.96%E -4.97%K -17.39%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.43%EV -2.09%E -0.275%K -0.316%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.10%EV -2.91%E -0.618%K -0.785%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-13 10:55
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.64%EV -6.96%E -4.97%K -17.39%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.63%EV -3.38%E -0.450%K -0.520%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -0.840%E -0.175%K -0.221%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-13 10:54
Unibet (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.50%EV -6.96%E -4.97%K -17.39%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.60%EV -3.38%E -0.450%K -0.520%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -1.87%E -0.394%K -0.499%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-13 10:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.07%EV -6.96%E -4.97%K -17.39%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.52%EV -3.38%E -0.450%K -0.520%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.41%EV -4.97%E -1.08%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-13 10:55
betano_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.09%EV -9.62%E -7.07%K -26.71%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -3.38%E -0.450%K -0.520%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -9.10%E -2.07%K -2.68%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-13 09:53
Bet Victor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.09%EV -9.62%E -7.07%K -26.71%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -3.38%E -0.450%K -0.520%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -9.10%E -2.07%K -2.68%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-13 09:53
BoyleSports🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.87%EV -9.62%E -7.07%K -26.71%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.13%EV -3.38%E -0.450%K -0.520%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.00%EV -10.55%E -2.44%K -3.17%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-13 13:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 68.35%EV -12.27%E -9.30%K -38.36%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.03%EV -3.38%E -0.450%K -0.520%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV -4.97%E -1.08%K -1.38%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-13 09:50
Pinnacle🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.34%EV -5.63%E -3.96%K -13.40%G +0.000%7.22I 13.85%NM 13.05%EV -6.98%E -0.967%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.57I 21.88%NM 20.61%EV -5.59%E -1.22%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-13 09:50
Betway🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.18%EV -6.96%E -4.97%K -17.39%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -9.82%E -1.40%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -7.04%E -1.56%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-13 09:49
BetMGM🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.18%EV -6.96%E -4.97%K -17.39%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -9.82%E -1.40%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -7.04%E -1.56%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-13 10:50
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.87%EV -6.96%E -4.97%K -17.39%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -9.82%E -1.40%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -9.10%E -2.07%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-13 10:50
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.87%EV -6.96%E -4.97%K -17.39%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -9.82%E -1.40%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -9.10%E -2.07%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-13 10:49
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.87%EV -6.96%E -4.97%K -17.39%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -9.82%E -1.40%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -9.10%E -2.07%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-13 10:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.87%EV -6.96%E -4.97%K -17.39%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -9.82%E -1.40%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -9.10%E -2.07%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-13 10:49
Tipico (DE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.61%EV -6.96%E -4.97%K -17.39%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.51%EV -12.40%E -1.82%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -9.10%E -2.07%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-13 12:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.45%EV -9.62%E -7.07%K -26.71%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -16.26%E -2.50%K -2.96%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.65%EV -4.97%E -1.08%K -1.38%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-13 10:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.47I 68.03%NM 67.02%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.02%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.96%1.5%2026-08-13 12:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.47I 68.03%NM 67.02%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.02%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.96%1.5%2026-08-13 12:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.47I 68.03%NM 67.02%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.02%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.96%1.5%2026-08-13 12:40

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