Modello predefinitoMedia interquartile (Lista Curata)

Cagliari v Arezzo

Inizio: 2026-08-14 16:31 UTC

Finale: Cagliari 1–0 Arezzo

Quote di chiusura — probabilità e valore atteso calcolati dalle ultime quote registrate prima dell’inizio secondo il modello selezionato. L’incontro è iniziato, quindi non sono dati in tempo reale. Valuti l’affidabilità delle previsioni probabilistiche di ciascun modello rispetto a tutti i risultati definitivi →

Testa a testa

30 bookmaker (9 nell’analisi )

Probabilità stimata di ciascun risultato secondo il modello: Media interquartile (Lista Curata)

Cagliari (Casa)

Previsione 57.28%1.75quota equa
EV -4.91%
Vantaggio -2.96%
Kelly -7.44%
Crescita +0.000%

ipotizzando la quota massima 1.66

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
55.96%57.48%57.23%61.27%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.
Distribuzione delle quote
1.491.581.601.6667.11%63.16%62.50%60.24%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.

Arezzo (Trasferta)

Previsione 17.93%5.58quota equa
EV +7.60%
Vantaggio +1.27%
Kelly +1.52%
Crescita +0.116%

ipotizzando la quota massima 6.00

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
15.33%17.68%18.10%19.33%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.
Distribuzione delle quote
4.705.315.256.0021.28%18.83%19.05%16.67%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.

Pareggio

Previsione 24.78%4.03quota equa
EV +4.09%
Vantaggio +0.974%
Kelly +1.28%
Crescita +0.052%

ipotizzando la quota massima 4.20

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
22.46%24.84%24.67%25.90%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.
Distribuzione delle quote
3.503.843.804.2028.57%26.03%26.32%23.81%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.

Alle ultime quote prima dell’inizio, Media interquartile (Lista Curata) stimava per Testa a testa: Cagliari (Casa): 57.28%; Arezzo (Trasferta): 17.93%; Pareggio: 24.78%. Per Arezzo (Trasferta), questa stima equivaleva a una quota decimale equa di 5.58. 7 bookmaker offrivano quote di chiusura superiori a tale livello; la migliore era 6.00, corrispondente a un valore atteso positivo del +7.60%.

Quote dei bookmaker (30 bookmaker)

Non siamo affiliati ad alcun bookmaker e non ricaviamo nulla dalle operazioni svolte presso di essi.

BookmakerCasaTrasferta ▼PareggioMargineAggiornamento
BoyleSports🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.13%EV -12.36%E -8.08%K -23.32%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.33%EV +7.60%E +1.27%K +1.52%G +0.116%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -7.06%E -1.88%K -2.57%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-14 16:25
Unibet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.27%EV -11.79%E -7.65%K -21.82%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.27%EV +4.02%E +0.692%K +0.837%G +0.034%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV +4.09%E +0.974%K +1.28%G +0.052%6.0%2026-08-14 16:24
Unibet (SE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.27%EV -11.79%E -7.65%K -21.82%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.27%EV +4.02%E +0.692%K +0.837%G +0.034%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV +4.09%E +0.974%K +1.28%G +0.052%6.0%2026-08-14 16:24
Unibet (NL)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.27%EV -11.79%E -7.65%K -21.82%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.27%EV +4.02%E +0.692%K +0.837%G +0.034%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV +4.09%E +0.974%K +1.28%G +0.052%6.0%2026-08-14 16:24
Svenska Spel🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.27%EV -11.79%E -7.65%K -21.82%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.27%EV +4.02%E +0.692%K +0.837%G +0.034%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV +4.09%E +0.974%K +1.28%G +0.052%6.0%2026-08-14 16:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.27%EV -11.79%E -7.65%K -21.82%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.27%EV +4.02%E +0.692%K +0.837%G +0.034%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV +4.09%E +0.974%K +1.28%G +0.052%6.0%2026-08-14 16:24
Pinnacle🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.70%EV -4.91%E -2.96%K -7.44%G +0.000%5.58I 17.92%NM 17.16%EV +0.071%E +0.013%K +0.015%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 25.14%EV -5.57%E -1.46%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-14 16:24
betfred_uk🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.84%EV -7.20%E -4.45%K -11.62%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.33%EV -1.36%E -0.248%K -0.303%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.83%EV -0.864%E -0.216%K -0.288%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-14 16:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.52%EV -14.08%E -9.38%K -28.15%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.50%EV -1.36%E -0.248%K -0.303%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.98%EV -2.10%E -0.532%K -0.713%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-14 16:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.52%EV -14.08%E -9.38%K -28.15%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.50%EV -1.36%E -0.248%K -0.303%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.98%EV -2.10%E -0.532%K -0.713%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-14 16:15
Grosvenor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.52%EV -14.08%E -9.38%K -28.15%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.50%EV -1.36%E -0.248%K -0.303%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.98%EV -2.10%E -0.532%K -0.713%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-14 16:14
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 60.50%EV -14.65%E -9.83%K -29.90%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.39%EV -1.36%E -0.248%K -0.303%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.11%EV -3.34%E -0.857%K -1.15%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-14 16:24
Tipico (DE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.50%EV -10.07%E -6.41%K -17.66%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.33%EV -4.95%E -0.934%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -5.82%E -1.53%K -2.08%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-14 16:04
Coral🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.19%EV -5.48%E -3.32%K -8.44%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -5.85%E -1.11%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.83%EV -5.82%E -1.53%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-14 16:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.19%EV -5.48%E -3.32%K -8.44%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -5.85%E -1.11%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.83%EV -5.82%E -1.53%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-14 16:24
Betway🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.79%EV -7.78%E -4.83%K -12.75%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.72%EV -5.85%E -1.11%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.49%EV -5.82%E -1.53%K -2.08%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-14 16:25
SportsBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.25%EV -9.49%E -6.01%K -16.37%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.53%EV -5.85%E -1.11%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -5.82%E -1.53%K -2.08%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-14 16:14
Codere (IT)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.13%EV -4.91%E -2.96%K -7.44%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -6.74%E -1.30%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.63%EV -4.58%E -1.19%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-14 16:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.68%EV -5.48%E -3.32%K -8.44%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.71%EV -10.33%E -2.07%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.61%EV -5.82%E -1.53%K -2.08%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-14 16:25
Sky Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.60%EV -10.07%E -6.41%K -17.66%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -10.33%E -2.07%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -0.864%E -0.216%K -0.288%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-14 15:59
BetMGM🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.76%EV -7.20%E -4.45%K -11.62%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.39%EV -10.33%E -2.07%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.85%EV -8.30%E -2.24%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-14 16:19
Paddy Power🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.44%EV -8.35%E -5.22%K -13.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.38%EV -10.33%E -2.07%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -5.82%E -1.53%K -2.08%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-14 16:15
betano_uk🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.52%EV -7.78%E -4.83%K -12.75%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.20%EV -10.33%E -2.07%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -10.78%E -2.99%K -4.15%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-14 16:18
Bet Victor🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.52%EV -7.78%E -4.83%K -12.75%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.20%EV -10.33%E -2.07%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -10.78%E -2.99%K -4.15%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-14 16:18
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.90%EV -10.07%E -6.41%K -17.66%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -10.33%E -2.07%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -5.82%E -1.53%K -2.08%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-14 16:20
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.96%EV -7.20%E -4.45%K -11.62%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.13%EV -10.33%E -2.07%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -13.26%E -3.79%K -5.30%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-14 16:24
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.12%EV -7.78%E -4.83%K -12.75%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.07%EV -10.33%E -2.07%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -13.26%E -3.79%K -5.30%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-14 16:24
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.12%EV -7.78%E -4.83%K -12.75%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.07%EV -10.33%E -2.07%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -13.26%E -3.79%K -5.30%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-14 16:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.12%EV -7.78%E -4.83%K -12.75%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.07%EV -10.33%E -2.07%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -13.26%E -3.79%K -5.30%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-14 16:24
Winamax (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.77%EV -8.35%E -5.22%K -13.91%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.33%EV -15.71%E -3.34%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -5.82%E -1.53%K -2.08%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-14 16:24
Margine = Margine (overround) · I = Probabilità implicita · NM = Probabilità senza margine · EV = Valore atteso · E = Vantaggio · K = Criterio di Kelly · G = Crescita del capitale

Aggiornamento indica quando ciascun bookmaker ha modificato la quota per l’ultima volta: un orario meno recente significa che la quota non si è mossa, non che sia obsoleta. I bookmaker assenti da circa 15 minuti vengono normalmente esclusi; solo se tace il flusso dell’intero mercato si mostrano le ultime quote registrate.

Borse di scommesse (3)

BookmakerCasaTrasfertaPareggioMargine ▲Aggiornamento
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.71I 58.48%NM 58.23%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.88%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.89%0.4%2026-08-14 16:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.70I 58.82%NM 58.37%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.82%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81%0.8%2026-08-14 16:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.70I 58.82%NM 58.37%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.82%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81%0.8%2026-08-14 16:25