Language:English
MSV Duisburg v TSG Hoffenheim II
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
MSV Duisburg (Local)
Prediction 53.47%1.87fair odd
EV -3.75%
Edge -2.08%
Kelly -4.69%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.32%53.47%53.51%54.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.721.701.8062.50%58.30%58.82%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
TSG Hoffenheim II (Visit)
Prediction 23.39%4.27fair odd
EV -1.75%
Edge -0.417%
Kelly -0.548%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.13%23.42%23.38%24.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.873.854.2028.57%25.87%25.97%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 23.14%4.32fair odd
EV -0.750%
Edge -0.175%
Kelly -0.228%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.29
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.85%23.10%23.10%25.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.833.754.2930.77%26.14%26.67%23.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: MSV Duisburg (Local): 53.47%; TSG Hoffenheim II (Visit): 23.39%; Draw: 23.14%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.32. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.29, with an expected value of -0.750%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.67%EV -3.75%E -2.08%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -11.11%E -2.92%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -9.77%E -2.51%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-18 08:13 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.35%E -3.02%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%EV -6.43%E -1.61%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%EV -7.46%E -1.86%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-18 10:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.03%EV -5.35%E -3.02%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -8.77%E -2.25%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -5.15%E -1.26%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-18 10:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.03%EV -5.35%E -3.02%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -8.77%E -2.25%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV -5.15%E -1.26%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-18 10:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 51.91%EV -5.89%E -3.35%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.73%EV -9.94%E -2.58%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -13.24%E -3.53%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-18 11:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.05%EV -6.42%E -3.67%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.66%EV -9.94%E -2.58%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.29%EV -13.24%E -3.53%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-18 11:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.05%EV -6.42%E -3.67%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.66%EV -9.94%E -2.58%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.29%EV -13.24%E -3.53%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-18 11:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.05%EV -6.42%E -3.67%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.66%EV -9.94%E -2.58%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.29%EV -13.24%E -3.53%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-18 11:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.05%EV -6.42%E -3.67%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.66%EV -9.94%E -2.58%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.29%EV -13.24%E -3.53%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-18 11:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.05%EV -6.42%E -3.67%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.66%EV -9.94%E -2.58%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.29%EV -13.24%E -3.53%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-18 11:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.05%EV -6.42%E -3.67%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.66%EV -9.94%E -2.58%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.29%EV -13.24%E -3.53%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-18 11:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.05%EV -6.42%E -3.67%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.66%EV -9.94%E -2.58%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.29%EV -13.24%E -3.53%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-18 11:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.05%EV -6.42%E -3.67%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.66%EV -9.94%E -2.58%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.29%EV -13.24%E -3.53%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-18 11:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.05%EV -6.42%E -3.67%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.66%EV -9.94%E -2.58%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.29%EV -13.24%E -3.53%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-18 11:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.05%EV -6.42%E -3.67%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.66%EV -9.94%E -2.58%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.29%EV -13.24%E -3.53%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-18 11:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.74%EV -6.96%E -4.00%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 4.13I 24.21%NM 23.06%EV -3.39%E -0.821%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 4.29I 23.31%NM 22.20%EV -0.750%E -0.175%K -0.228%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-18 11:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.73%EV -7.49%E -4.33%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV -1.75%E -0.417%K -0.548%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.14%EV -10.93%E -2.84%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-18 11:30 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.96%EV -9.10%E -5.35%K -12.99%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.25%EV -1.75%E -0.417%K -0.548%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -5.15%E -1.26%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-18 11:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.49%EV -9.10%E -5.35%K -12.99%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.45%EV -7.60%E -1.92%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.06%EV -2.83%E -0.674%K -0.885%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-18 11:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.99%EV -9.10%E -5.35%K -12.99%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -11.11%E -2.92%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -2.83%E -0.674%K -0.885%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-18 11:05 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.90%EV -9.10%E -5.35%K -12.99%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -6.43%E -1.61%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.20%EV -8.62%E -2.18%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-18 11:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.74%EV -9.10%E -5.35%K -12.99%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.13%EV -7.60%E -1.92%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.13%EV -8.62%E -2.18%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-18 11:14 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.48%EV -9.10%E -5.35%K -12.99%G +0.000% | 3.82I 26.18%NM 23.80%EV -10.64%E -2.79%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -7.46%E -1.86%K -2.49%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-18 09:59 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.24%EV -9.10%E -5.35%K -12.99%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.63%EV -6.43%E -1.61%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.13%EV -13.24%E -3.53%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-04-18 11:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.10%EV -9.10%E -5.35%K -12.99%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.45%EV -9.94%E -2.58%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.45%EV -10.93%E -2.84%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-04-18 10:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.78%EV -9.10%E -5.35%K -12.99%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.61%EV -11.11%E -2.92%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.61%EV -12.09%E -3.18%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-18 10:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.78%EV -9.10%E -5.35%K -12.99%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.61%EV -11.11%E -2.92%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.61%EV -12.09%E -3.18%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-18 10:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.78%EV -9.10%E -5.35%K -12.99%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.61%EV -11.11%E -2.92%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.61%EV -12.09%E -3.18%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-18 10:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.76%EV -9.10%E -5.35%K -12.99%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.00%EV -8.77%E -2.25%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.24%EV -14.40%E -3.89%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-18 11:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.76%EV -9.10%E -5.35%K -12.99%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.00%EV -8.77%E -2.25%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.24%EV -14.40%E -3.89%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-18 11:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.76%EV -9.10%E -5.35%K -12.99%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.00%EV -8.77%E -2.25%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.24%EV -14.40%E -3.89%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-18 11:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.76%EV -9.10%E -5.35%K -12.99%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.00%EV -8.77%E -2.25%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.24%EV -14.40%E -3.89%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-18 11:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.18%EV -10.70%E -6.41%K -15.97%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.62%EV -6.43%E -1.61%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.20%EV -9.77%E -2.51%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-04-18 11:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.22%EV -10.70%E -6.41%K -15.97%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.39%EV -11.11%E -2.92%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.39%EV -12.09%E -3.18%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-04-18 11:29 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 52.18%EV -10.70%E -6.41%K -15.97%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.90%EV -18.13%E -5.18%K -7.25%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 22.93%EV -12.09%E -3.18%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-04-18 10:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 51.87%EV -10.70%E -6.41%K -15.97%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.06%EV -15.79%E -4.39%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.06%EV -16.71%E -4.64%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 15.4% | 2026-04-18 11:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 53.36%EV -11.77%E -7.13%K -18.11%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.17%EV -11.11%E -2.92%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.48%EV -13.24%E -3.53%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-04-18 11:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 51.32%EV -13.37%E -8.26%K -21.57%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.10%EV -15.79%E -4.39%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 25.58%EV -24.81%E -7.63%K -11.03%G +0.000% | 20.3% | 2026-04-18 11:30 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 52.22%EV -14.44%E -9.03%K -24.07%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.21%EV -15.79%E -4.39%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 24.57%EV -21.34%E -6.28%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 19.7% | 2026-04-18 10:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.53% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.49% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.99% | 1.2% | 2026-04-18 11:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.53% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.49% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.99% | 1.2% | 2026-04-18 11:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.23% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.37% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.40% | 1.7% | 2026-04-18 11:30 |