Language:English
MSV Duisburg v FC Viktoria Köln 1904
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
MSV Duisburg (Local)
Prediction 62.82%1.59fair odd
EV -2.63%
Edge -1.70%
Kelly -4.78%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.39%62.89%62.88%66.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.431.441.5573.53%69.80%69.44%64.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
FC Viktoria Köln 1904 (Visit)
Prediction 15.91%6.29fair odd
EV +14.37%
Edge +2.00%
Kelly +2.32%
Growth +0.334%
assuming max odds 7.19
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.11%15.76%15.93%18.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.755.875.757.1921.05%17.03%17.39%13.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 21.27%4.70fair odd
EV -0.019%
Edge -0.004%
Kelly -0.005%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.79%21.35%21.20%23.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.304.404.7027.03%23.25%22.73%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: MSV Duisburg (Local): 62.82%; FC Viktoria Köln 1904 (Visit): 15.91%; Draw: 21.27%. For FC Viktoria Köln 1904 (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.29. 15 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.19, corresponding to a positive expected value of +14.37%.
Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.46%EV -9.54%E -6.62%K -21.68%G +0.000% | 7.19I 13.91%NM 13.11%EV +14.37%E +2.00%K +2.32%G +0.334% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.42%EV -6.40%E -1.45%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-16 11:25 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 64.04%EV -10.79%E -7.60%K -25.70%G +0.000% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 13.78%EV +4.98%E +0.755%K +0.890%G +0.044% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.18%EV -12.78%E -3.12%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-05-16 11:16 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.76%EV -10.79%E -7.60%K -25.70%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV +3.39%E +0.522%K +0.617%G +0.021% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.87%EV -0.019%E -0.004%K -0.005%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-16 11:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.12%EV -13.31%E -9.64%K -35.02%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV +3.39%E +0.522%K +0.617%G +0.021% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -2.15%E -0.467%K -0.596%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-16 10:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 65.83%EV -13.31%E -9.64%K -35.02%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.98%EV +3.39%E +0.522%K +0.617%G +0.021% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.19%EV -4.27%E -0.950%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-16 10:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 65.83%EV -13.31%E -9.64%K -35.02%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.98%EV +3.39%E +0.522%K +0.617%G +0.021% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.19%EV -4.27%E -0.950%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-16 10:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 65.83%EV -13.31%E -9.64%K -35.02%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.98%EV +3.39%E +0.522%K +0.617%G +0.021% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.19%EV -4.27%E -0.950%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-16 10:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 65.83%EV -13.31%E -9.64%K -35.02%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.98%EV +3.39%E +0.522%K +0.617%G +0.021% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.19%EV -4.27%E -0.950%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-16 10:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 65.83%EV -13.31%E -9.64%K -35.02%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.98%EV +3.39%E +0.522%K +0.617%G +0.021% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.19%EV -4.27%E -0.950%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-16 10:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 65.83%EV -13.31%E -9.64%K -35.02%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.98%EV +3.39%E +0.522%K +0.617%G +0.021% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.19%EV -4.27%E -0.950%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-16 10:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 65.83%EV -13.31%E -9.64%K -35.02%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.98%EV +3.39%E +0.522%K +0.617%G +0.021% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.19%EV -4.27%E -0.950%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-16 10:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 65.83%EV -13.31%E -9.64%K -35.02%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.98%EV +3.39%E +0.522%K +0.617%G +0.021% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.19%EV -4.27%E -0.950%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-16 10:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 65.83%EV -13.31%E -9.64%K -35.02%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.98%EV +3.39%E +0.522%K +0.617%G +0.021% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.19%EV -4.27%E -0.950%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-16 10:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 65.83%EV -13.31%E -9.64%K -35.02%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.98%EV +3.39%E +0.522%K +0.617%G +0.021% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.19%EV -4.27%E -0.950%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-16 10:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 65.83%EV -13.31%E -9.64%K -35.02%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.98%EV +3.39%E +0.522%K +0.617%G +0.021% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.19%EV -4.27%E -0.950%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-16 10:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.00%EV -6.40%E -4.29%K -13.06%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 14.90%EV -1.38%E -0.222%K -0.265%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.10%EV -14.91%E -3.73%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-16 11:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.00%EV -6.40%E -4.29%K -13.06%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 14.90%EV -1.38%E -0.222%K -0.265%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.10%EV -14.91%E -3.73%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-16 11:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.65%EV -8.91%E -6.14%K -19.80%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -4.56%E -0.760%K -0.912%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.97%EV -6.40%E -1.45%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-16 11:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 64.90%EV -14.56%E -10.71%K -40.46%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.71%EV -4.56%E -0.760%K -0.912%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.39%EV -7.89%E -1.82%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-05-16 11:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.04%EV -7.03%E -4.75%K -14.64%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV -8.54%E -1.48%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -4.27%E -0.950%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-16 11:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.12%EV -7.03%E -4.75%K -14.64%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.99%EV -8.54%E -1.48%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -10.66%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-16 11:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.08%EV -9.54%E -6.62%K -21.68%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.80%EV -8.54%E -1.48%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.12%EV -8.53%E -1.98%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-05-16 11:19 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 63.71%EV -10.79%E -7.60%K -25.70%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.73%EV -8.54%E -1.48%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.56%EV -6.40%E -1.45%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-05-16 11:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.96%EV -7.65%E -5.21%K -16.28%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.24%EV -9.33%E -1.64%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.80%EV -5.34%E -1.20%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-16 11:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.96%EV -7.65%E -5.21%K -16.28%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.24%EV -9.33%E -1.64%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.80%EV -5.34%E -1.20%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-16 11:05 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 62.79%EV -8.28%E -5.67%K -18.00%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.37%EV -10.92%E -1.95%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.84%EV -6.40%E -1.45%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-05-16 11:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.20%EV -3.88%E -2.54%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.02%EV -12.51%E -2.28%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.78%EV -8.53%E -1.98%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-16 11:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.29%EV -7.65%E -5.21%K -16.28%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -12.51%E -2.28%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.79%EV -0.019%E -0.004%K -0.005%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-16 11:05 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.32%EV -9.54%E -6.62%K -21.68%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.32%EV -12.51%E -2.28%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.37%EV -10.66%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-16 11:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 62.32%EV -12.05%E -8.61%K -30.13%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 15.86%EV -12.51%E -2.28%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.81%EV -14.91%E -3.73%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-05-16 11:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 63.65%EV -14.56%E -10.71%K -40.46%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 15.74%EV -12.51%E -2.28%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.61%EV -10.66%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 15.5% | 2026-05-16 10:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.84%EV -9.54%E -6.62%K -21.68%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.96%EV -16.49%E -3.14%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.20%EV -10.66%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-05-16 11:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.84%EV -9.54%E -6.62%K -21.68%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.96%EV -16.49%E -3.14%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.20%EV -10.66%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-05-16 11:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 61.86%EV -12.05%E -8.61%K -30.13%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.49%EV -16.49%E -3.14%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.65%EV -14.91%E -3.73%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 15.5% | 2026-05-16 10:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.39%EV -2.63%E -1.70%K -4.78%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -20.47%E -4.09%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.51%EV -18.10%E -4.70%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-05-16 11:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 60.67%EV -7.03%E -4.75%K -14.64%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.96%EV -20.47%E -4.09%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.38%EV -10.66%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-16 11:25 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 60.67%EV -7.03%E -4.75%K -14.64%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.96%EV -20.47%E -4.09%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.38%EV -10.66%E -2.54%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-16 11:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -5.77%E -3.85%K -11.54%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -20.47%E -4.09%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -14.91%E -3.73%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-16 11:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -5.77%E -3.85%K -11.54%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -20.47%E -4.09%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -14.91%E -3.73%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-16 11:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.36%EV -5.77%E -3.85%K -11.54%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -20.47%E -4.09%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.83%EV -17.04%E -4.37%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-05-16 11:24 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 59.77%EV -12.05%E -8.61%K -30.13%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 17.62%EV -24.44%E -5.15%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 22.62%EV -21.29%E -5.75%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 19.5% | 2026-05-16 11:23 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 61.96% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.79% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.25% | 2.1% | 2026-05-16 11:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 61.96% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.79% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.25% | 2.1% | 2026-05-16 11:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 61.96% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.79% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.25% | 2.1% | 2026-05-16 11:25 |