Language:English
Erzgebirge Aue v MSV Duisburg
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Erzgebirge Aue (Local)
Prediction 22.52%4.44fair odd
EV -0.890%
Edge -0.202%
Kelly -0.262%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.73%22.76%22.19%24.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.104.204.4027.78%24.41%23.81%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
MSV Duisburg (Visit)
Prediction 55.34%1.81fair odd
EV -3.16%
Edge -1.81%
Kelly -4.22%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.79%55.14%55.66%57.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.651.651.7563.69%60.51%60.61%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 22.14%4.52fair odd
EV -1.48%
Edge -0.332%
Kelly -0.429%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.27%22.10%22.15%25.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.953.904.4530.30%25.34%25.64%22.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Erzgebirge Aue (Local): 22.52%; MSV Duisburg (Visit): 55.34%; Draw: 22.14%. For Erzgebirge Aue (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.44. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.40, with an expected value of -0.890%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (42 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -0.890%E -0.202%K -0.262%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.02%EV -11.46%E -7.16%K -19.11%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.25%EV -9.23%E -2.25%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-08 16:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.99%EV -2.02%E -0.464%K -0.602%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.99%EV -8.14%E -4.91%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.02%EV -15.87%E -4.18%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-08 16:49 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.92%EV -2.02%E -0.464%K -0.602%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.14%EV -8.70%E -5.27%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -15.87%E -4.18%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-08 16:49 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.92%EV -2.02%E -0.464%K -0.602%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.14%EV -8.70%E -5.27%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -15.87%E -4.18%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-08 16:49 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.92%EV -2.02%E -0.464%K -0.602%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.14%EV -8.70%E -5.27%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -15.87%E -4.18%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-08 16:49 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.92%EV -2.02%E -0.464%K -0.602%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.14%EV -8.70%E -5.27%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -15.87%E -4.18%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-08 16:49 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.92%EV -2.02%E -0.464%K -0.602%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.14%EV -8.70%E -5.27%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -15.87%E -4.18%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-08 16:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.92%EV -2.02%E -0.464%K -0.602%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.14%EV -8.70%E -5.27%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -15.87%E -4.18%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-08 16:49 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.92%EV -2.02%E -0.464%K -0.602%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.14%EV -8.70%E -5.27%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -15.87%E -4.18%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-08 16:49 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.92%EV -2.02%E -0.464%K -0.602%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.14%EV -8.70%E -5.27%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -15.87%E -4.18%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-08 16:49 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.92%EV -2.02%E -0.464%K -0.602%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.14%EV -8.70%E -5.27%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -15.87%E -4.18%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-08 16:49 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.92%EV -2.02%E -0.464%K -0.602%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.14%EV -8.70%E -5.27%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -15.87%E -4.18%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-08 16:49 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.92%EV -2.02%E -0.464%K -0.602%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.14%EV -8.70%E -5.27%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -15.87%E -4.18%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-08 16:49 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -3.14%E -0.731%K -0.952%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.55%EV -7.04%E -4.19%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.35%EV -1.48%E -0.332%K -0.429%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-08 16:44 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.53%EV -3.14%E -0.731%K -0.952%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.44%EV -9.25%E -5.64%K -14.45%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.04%EV -7.01%E -1.67%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-08 16:54 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.74%EV -4.27%E -1.00%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -8.70%E -5.27%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.26%EV -8.12%E -1.96%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-08 16:54 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.74%EV -4.27%E -1.00%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -8.70%E -5.27%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.26%EV -8.12%E -1.96%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-08 16:53 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.26%EV -5.40%E -1.28%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.99%EV -7.59%E -4.54%K -11.33%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.75%EV -4.80%E -1.12%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-08 16:54 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -5.40%E -1.28%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.59%E -4.54%K -11.33%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -7.01%E -1.67%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-08 16:53 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.88%EV -5.40%E -1.28%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.70%EV -8.70%E -5.27%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.42%EV -9.23%E -2.25%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-08 16:54 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.54%EV -5.40%E -1.28%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.84%EV -10.36%E -6.39%K -16.70%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.62%EV -11.44%E -2.86%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-05-08 16:54 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.32%EV -5.40%E -1.28%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 56.30%EV -12.02%E -7.56%K -20.37%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.38%EV -11.44%E -2.86%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-08 16:54 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.29%EV -5.40%E -1.28%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.19%EV -10.36%E -6.39%K -16.70%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.53%EV -15.87%E -4.18%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-08 16:54 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -7.65%E -1.87%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.84%EV -8.14%E -4.91%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.56%EV -4.80%E -1.12%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-08 16:54 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -9.90%E -2.48%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.50%EV -6.48%E -3.84%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.47%EV -9.23%E -2.25%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-08 16:54 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.60%EV -9.90%E -2.48%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.79%EV -8.70%E -5.27%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.60%EV -11.44%E -2.86%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-05-08 16:49 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.97%EV -9.90%E -2.48%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 54.59%EV -10.91%E -6.78%K -17.89%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.44%EV -16.98%E -4.53%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-05-08 16:54 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.92%EV -12.15%E -3.12%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.17%EV -8.70%E -5.27%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.92%EV -13.66%E -3.50%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-08 16:54 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.92%EV -12.15%E -3.12%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.17%EV -8.70%E -5.27%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.92%EV -13.66%E -3.50%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-08 16:54 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.92%EV -12.15%E -3.12%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.17%EV -8.70%E -5.27%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.92%EV -13.66%E -3.50%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-08 16:54 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.92%EV -12.15%E -3.12%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.17%EV -8.70%E -5.27%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.92%EV -13.66%E -3.50%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-08 16:54 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.69%EV -13.28%E -3.45%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.60%EV -7.59%E -4.54%K -11.33%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -7.01%E -1.67%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-08 16:54 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -14.41%E -3.79%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.27%EV -3.16%E -1.81%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -7.01%E -1.67%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-08 16:54 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -14.41%E -3.79%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.27%EV -3.16%E -1.81%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -7.01%E -1.67%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-08 16:54 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.75%EV -14.41%E -3.79%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.10%EV -5.93%E -3.49%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.15%EV -13.66%E -3.50%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-08 16:54 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.75%EV -14.41%E -3.79%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.10%EV -5.93%E -3.49%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.15%EV -13.66%E -3.50%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-08 16:54 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.75%EV -14.41%E -3.79%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.10%EV -5.93%E -3.49%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.15%EV -13.66%E -3.50%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-08 16:54 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 22.72%EV -14.41%E -3.79%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 53.30%EV -10.36%E -6.39%K -16.70%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.98%EV -20.30%E -5.64%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 15.8% | 2026-05-08 16:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.56%EV -15.53%E -4.14%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.17%EV -5.93%E -3.49%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.27%EV -4.14%E -0.955%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-08 16:54 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 22.10%EV -15.53%E -4.14%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 52.79%EV -13.12%E -8.36%K -23.02%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 25.11%EV -26.94%E -8.16%K -11.71%G +0.000% | 20.7% | 2026-05-08 16:54 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 22.50%EV -16.66%E -4.50%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 53.02%EV -13.12%E -8.36%K -23.02%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 24.48%EV -24.73%E -7.27%K -10.30%G +0.000% | 20.1% | 2026-05-08 16:53 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.26%EV -18.91%E -5.25%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 53.91%EV -10.36%E -6.39%K -16.70%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.83%EV -11.44%E -2.86%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 14.5% | 2026-05-08 16:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.42% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 55.67% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.91% | 1.5% | 2026-05-08 16:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.42% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 55.67% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.91% | 1.5% | 2026-05-08 16:49 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.42% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 55.67% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.91% | 1.5% | 2026-05-08 16:54 |