La escuela de los momiosEspañol
Erzgebirge Aue v MSV Duisburg
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Erzgebirge Aue (Local)
Predicción 22.52%4.44momio equitativo
EV -0.890%
Ventaja -0.202%
Kelly -0.262%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.40
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.73%22.76%22.19%24.56%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.604.104.204.4027.78%24.41%23.81%22.73%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
MSV Duisburg (Visitante)
Predicción 55.34%1.81momio equitativo
EV -3.16%
Ventaja -1.81%
Kelly -4.22%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.75
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
52.79%55.14%55.66%57.02%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.571.651.651.7563.69%60.51%60.61%57.14%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Empate
Predicción 22.14%4.52momio equitativo
EV -1.48%
Ventaja -0.332%
Kelly -0.429%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.45
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.27%22.10%22.15%25.11%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.303.953.904.4530.30%25.34%25.64%22.47%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (42 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -0.890%E -0.202%K -0.262%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.02%EV -11.46%E -7.16%K -19.11%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.25%EV -9.23%E -2.25%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-05-08 16:50 |
| LeoVegas | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.99%EV -2.02%E -0.464%K -0.602%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.99%EV -8.14%E -4.91%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.02%EV -15.87%E -4.18%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-05-08 16:49 |
| Unibet (SE) | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.92%EV -2.02%E -0.464%K -0.602%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.14%EV -8.70%E -5.27%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -15.87%E -4.18%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-08 16:49 |
| Virgin Bet | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.92%EV -2.02%E -0.464%K -0.602%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.14%EV -8.70%E -5.27%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -15.87%E -4.18%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-08 16:49 |
| Unibet (NL) | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.92%EV -2.02%E -0.464%K -0.602%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.14%EV -8.70%E -5.27%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -15.87%E -4.18%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-08 16:49 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.92%EV -2.02%E -0.464%K -0.602%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.14%EV -8.70%E -5.27%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -15.87%E -4.18%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-08 16:49 |
| LiveScore Bet | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.92%EV -2.02%E -0.464%K -0.602%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.14%EV -8.70%E -5.27%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -15.87%E -4.18%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-08 16:50 |
| Grosvenor | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.92%EV -2.02%E -0.464%K -0.602%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.14%EV -8.70%E -5.27%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -15.87%E -4.18%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-08 16:49 |
| Casumo | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.92%EV -2.02%E -0.464%K -0.602%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.14%EV -8.70%E -5.27%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -15.87%E -4.18%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-08 16:49 |
| TABtouch | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.92%EV -2.02%E -0.464%K -0.602%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.14%EV -8.70%E -5.27%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -15.87%E -4.18%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-08 16:49 |
| Unibet | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.92%EV -2.02%E -0.464%K -0.602%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.14%EV -8.70%E -5.27%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -15.87%E -4.18%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-08 16:49 |
| Svenska Spel | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.92%EV -2.02%E -0.464%K -0.602%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.14%EV -8.70%E -5.27%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -15.87%E -4.18%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-08 16:49 |
| ATG (SE) | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.92%EV -2.02%E -0.464%K -0.602%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.14%EV -8.70%E -5.27%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -15.87%E -4.18%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-05-08 16:49 |
| Pinnacle | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -3.14%E -0.731%K -0.952%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.55%EV -7.04%E -4.19%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 21.35%EV -1.48%E -0.332%K -0.429%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-08 16:44 |
| Coolbet | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.53%EV -3.14%E -0.731%K -0.952%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.44%EV -9.25%E -5.64%K -14.45%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.04%EV -7.01%E -1.67%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-08 16:54 |
| NordicBet | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.74%EV -4.27%E -1.00%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -8.70%E -5.27%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.26%EV -8.12%E -1.96%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-08 16:54 |
| Betsson | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.74%EV -4.27%E -1.00%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -8.70%E -5.27%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.26%EV -8.12%E -1.96%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-08 16:53 |
| Tipico (DE) | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.26%EV -5.40%E -1.28%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.99%EV -7.59%E -4.54%K -11.33%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.75%EV -4.80%E -1.12%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-08 16:54 |
| Unibet (UK) | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -5.40%E -1.28%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.59%E -4.54%K -11.33%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -7.01%E -1.67%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-08 16:53 |
| Codere (IT) | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.88%EV -5.40%E -1.28%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.70%EV -8.70%E -5.27%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.42%EV -9.23%E -2.25%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-08 16:54 |
| betfred_uk | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.54%EV -5.40%E -1.28%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.84%EV -10.36%E -6.39%K -16.70%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.62%EV -11.44%E -2.86%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-05-08 16:54 |
| theScore Bet | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.32%EV -5.40%E -1.28%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 56.30%EV -12.02%E -7.56%K -20.37%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.38%EV -11.44%E -2.86%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-08 16:54 |
| Paddy Power | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.29%EV -5.40%E -1.28%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.19%EV -10.36%E -6.39%K -16.70%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.53%EV -15.87%E -4.18%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-08 16:54 |
| Winamax (DE) | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -7.65%E -1.87%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.84%EV -8.14%E -4.91%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.56%EV -4.80%E -1.12%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-08 16:54 |
| Fanatics | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -9.90%E -2.48%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.50%EV -6.48%E -3.84%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.47%EV -9.23%E -2.25%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-08 16:54 |
| PlayUp | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.60%EV -9.90%E -2.48%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.79%EV -8.70%E -5.27%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.60%EV -11.44%E -2.86%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-05-08 16:49 |
| SportsBet | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.97%EV -9.90%E -2.48%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 54.59%EV -10.91%E -6.78%K -17.89%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.44%EV -16.98%E -4.53%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-05-08 16:54 |
| Neds | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.92%EV -12.15%E -3.12%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.17%EV -8.70%E -5.27%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.92%EV -13.66%E -3.50%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-08 16:54 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.92%EV -12.15%E -3.12%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.17%EV -8.70%E -5.27%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.92%EV -13.66%E -3.50%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-08 16:54 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.92%EV -12.15%E -3.12%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.17%EV -8.70%E -5.27%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.92%EV -13.66%E -3.50%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-08 16:54 |
| Coral | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.92%EV -12.15%E -3.12%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.17%EV -8.70%E -5.27%K -13.38%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.92%EV -13.66%E -3.50%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-08 16:54 |
| Suprabets | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.69%EV -13.28%E -3.45%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.60%EV -7.59%E -4.54%K -11.33%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -7.01%E -1.67%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-08 16:54 |
| BetOnline.ag | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -14.41%E -3.79%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.27%EV -3.16%E -1.81%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -7.01%E -1.67%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-08 16:54 |
| LowVig.ag | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -14.41%E -3.79%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.27%EV -3.16%E -1.81%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -7.01%E -1.67%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-08 16:54 |
| 888sport | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.75%EV -14.41%E -3.79%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.10%EV -5.93%E -3.49%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.15%EV -13.66%E -3.50%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-08 16:54 |
| 888sport (SE) | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.75%EV -14.41%E -3.79%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.10%EV -5.93%E -3.49%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.15%EV -13.66%E -3.50%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-08 16:54 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.75%EV -14.41%E -3.79%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.10%EV -5.93%E -3.49%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.15%EV -13.66%E -3.50%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-05-08 16:54 |
| Sky Bet | 3.80I 26.32%NM 22.72%EV -14.41%E -3.79%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 53.30%EV -10.36%E -6.39%K -16.70%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.98%EV -20.30%E -5.64%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 15.8% | 2026-05-08 16:54 |
| Betway | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.56%EV -15.53%E -4.14%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.17%EV -5.93%E -3.49%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.27%EV -4.14%E -0.955%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-08 16:54 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 3.75I 26.67%NM 22.10%EV -15.53%E -4.14%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 52.79%EV -13.12%E -8.36%K -23.02%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 25.11%EV -26.94%E -8.16%K -11.71%G +0.000% | 20.7% | 2026-05-08 16:54 |
| Bet Victor | 3.70I 27.03%NM 22.50%EV -16.66%E -4.50%K -6.17%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 53.02%EV -13.12%E -8.36%K -23.02%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 24.48%EV -24.73%E -7.27%K -10.30%G +0.000% | 20.1% | 2026-05-08 16:53 |
| BoyleSports | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.26%EV -18.91%E -5.25%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 53.91%EV -10.36%E -6.39%K -16.70%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.83%EV -11.44%E -2.86%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 14.5% | 2026-05-08 16:55 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (3)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.42% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 55.67% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.91% | 1.5% | 2026-05-08 16:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.42% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 55.67% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.91% | 1.5% | 2026-05-08 16:49 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.42% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 55.67% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.91% | 1.5% | 2026-05-08 16:54 |