Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

SV Darmstadt 98 v Arminia Bielefeld

Kickoff: 2026-09-11 16:30 UTC

Final: SV Darmstadt 98 2–1 Arminia Bielefeld

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SV Darmstadt 98 (Local)

Prediction 34.43%2.90fair odd
EV -3.60%
Edge -1.28%
Kelly -2.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.45%34.56%34.40%36.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.652.702.8040.00%37.68%37.04%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Arminia Bielefeld (Visit)

Prediction 40.01%2.50fair odd
EV -1.97%
Edge -0.806%
Kelly -1.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.99%39.89%40.04%41.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.332.322.4546.51%42.95%43.10%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.56%3.91fair odd
EV -1.60%
Edge -0.414%
Kelly -0.560%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.72%25.54%25.56%26.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.573.553.8529.85%28.03%28.17%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SV Darmstadt 98 (Local): 34.43%; Arminia Bielefeld (Visit): 40.01%; Draw: 25.56%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.91. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.85, with an expected value of -1.60%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.07%EV -3.60%E -1.28%K -2.00%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.76%EV -6.37%E -2.72%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.17%EV -3.13%E -0.826%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-08 17:10
Coolbet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.67%EV -5.32%E -1.93%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.57%EV -5.97%E -2.54%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.76%EV -1.60%E -0.414%K -0.560%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-09 01:34
Codere (IT)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.32%EV -5.32%E -1.93%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.82%EV -5.17%E -2.18%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.86%EV -6.71%E -1.84%K -2.53%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-09 04:34
1xBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.08%EV -5.32%E -1.93%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.88%EV -5.97%E -2.54%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -7.99%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-09 13:00
FanDuel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.03%EV -5.32%E -1.93%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.68%EV -7.98%E -3.47%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -5.43%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-09 16:35
Fanatics🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -5.32%E -1.93%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -7.98%E -3.47%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -7.99%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-07 03:30
BetOnline.ag🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 34.76%EV -5.66%E -2.07%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 39.85%EV -4.37%E -1.83%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.40%EV -4.15%E -1.11%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-06 16:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 34.76%EV -5.66%E -2.07%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 39.85%EV -4.37%E -1.83%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.40%EV -4.15%E -1.11%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-06 16:45
Marathon Bet🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 34.05%EV -5.66%E -2.07%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.04%EV -6.77%E -2.91%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -7.99%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-09 12:25
Suprabets🎯2.71I 36.90%NM 34.13%EV -6.70%E -2.47%K -3.92%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 40.39%EV -8.38%E -3.66%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 25.48%EV -7.22%E -1.99%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-09 00:34
Unibet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.82%EV -7.04%E -2.61%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.69%EV -2.77%E -1.14%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.49%EV -9.26%E -2.61%K -3.63%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-09 09:45
Casumo🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.82%EV -7.04%E -2.61%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.69%EV -2.77%E -1.14%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.49%EV -9.26%E -2.61%K -3.63%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-09 09:45
Unibet (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.82%EV -7.04%E -2.61%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.69%EV -2.77%E -1.14%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.49%EV -9.26%E -2.61%K -3.63%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-09 09:45
Unibet (NL)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.82%EV -7.04%E -2.61%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.69%EV -2.77%E -1.14%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.49%EV -9.26%E -2.61%K -3.63%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-09 09:45
Grosvenor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.82%EV -7.04%E -2.61%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.69%EV -2.77%E -1.14%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.49%EV -9.26%E -2.61%K -3.63%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-09 09:45
betPARX🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.82%EV -7.04%E -2.61%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.69%EV -2.77%E -1.14%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.49%EV -9.26%E -2.61%K -3.63%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-09 09:45
Svenska Spel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.82%EV -7.04%E -2.61%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.69%EV -2.77%E -1.14%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.49%EV -9.26%E -2.61%K -3.63%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-09 09:45
ATG (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.82%EV -7.04%E -2.61%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.69%EV -2.77%E -1.14%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.49%EV -9.26%E -2.61%K -3.63%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-09 09:45
DraftKings🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.74%EV -7.04%E -2.61%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.91%EV -5.97%E -2.54%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.35%EV -5.43%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-08 16:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.56%EV -7.04%E -2.61%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.56%EV -7.98%E -3.47%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -4.15%E -1.11%K -1.51%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-09 01:34
Unibet (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -7.04%E -2.61%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.63%EV -5.97%E -2.54%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -7.99%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-05 23:04
SportsBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.44%EV -7.04%E -2.61%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.43%EV -7.98%E -3.47%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -5.43%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-09 01:30
theScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -7.04%E -2.61%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.15%EV -7.98%E -3.47%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -7.99%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-09 16:35
888sport🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -7.04%E -2.61%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -7.98%E -3.47%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -10.54%E -3.01%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-07 19:40
William Hill🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -7.04%E -2.61%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -7.98%E -3.47%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -10.54%E -3.01%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-07 19:39
888sport (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -7.04%E -2.61%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -7.98%E -3.47%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -10.54%E -3.01%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-07 19:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -7.04%E -2.61%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -7.98%E -3.47%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -10.54%E -3.01%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-07 19:39
betano_uk🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.90%EV -7.04%E -2.61%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.68%EV -9.98%E -4.43%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -7.99%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-07 19:40
Bet Victor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.90%EV -7.04%E -2.61%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.68%EV -9.98%E -4.43%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -7.99%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-07 19:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.86%EV -8.76%E -3.31%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.17%EV -7.98%E -3.47%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -5.43%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-09 01:34
Betr (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.86%EV -8.76%E -3.31%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.17%EV -7.98%E -3.47%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -5.43%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-09 01:33
Bovada🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.79%EV -8.76%E -3.31%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.23%EV -5.97%E -2.54%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.97%EV -9.26%E -2.61%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-08 17:13
PlayUp🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.62%EV -8.76%E -3.31%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.89%EV -7.98%E -3.47%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -7.99%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-09 04:14
LeoVegas🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.50%EV -8.76%E -3.31%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.75%EV -7.98%E -3.47%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.75%EV -9.26%E -2.61%K -3.63%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-06 13:10
NordicBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.36%EV -8.76%E -3.31%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.25%EV -7.18%E -3.09%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.39%EV -11.82%E -3.43%K -4.82%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-05 23:05
Betsson🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.36%EV -8.76%E -3.31%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.25%EV -7.18%E -3.09%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.39%EV -11.82%E -3.43%K -4.82%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-05 23:03
Betclic (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.32%EV -8.76%E -3.31%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 40.06%EV -9.18%E -4.04%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.62%EV -9.26%E -2.61%K -3.63%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-09 16:41
Unibet (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.45%EV -8.76%E -3.31%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.23%EV -13.98%E -6.50%K -12.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.33%EV -10.54%E -3.01%K -4.22%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-09 16:35
betfred_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -9.79%E -3.74%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.73%EV -7.98%E -3.47%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -7.99%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-06 16:45
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.58%EV -9.79%E -3.74%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.26%EV -9.98%E -4.43%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -7.99%E -2.22%K -3.07%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-09 01:34
BetMGM🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.18%EV -10.48%E -4.03%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%EV -1.97%E -0.806%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -5.43%E -1.47%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-05 23:04
Tipico (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.13%EV -10.48%E -4.03%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -3.97%E -1.66%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -2.87%E -0.756%K -1.03%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-08 20:55
TABtouch🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.83%EV -10.48%E -4.03%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.54%EV -5.97%E -2.54%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -13.10%E -3.85%K -5.46%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-09 09:44
Sky Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.19%EV -10.48%E -4.03%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.41%EV -11.98%E -5.44%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.40%EV -10.54%E -3.01%K -4.22%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-09 01:30
BetRivers🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.16%EV -12.20%E -4.79%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 38.48%EV -6.77%E -2.91%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -13.10%E -3.85%K -5.46%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-09 09:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.16%EV -12.20%E -4.79%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 38.48%EV -6.77%E -2.91%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -13.10%E -3.85%K -5.46%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-09 09:44
Winamax (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.07%EV -12.20%E -4.79%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.74%EV -9.98%E -4.43%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.19%EV -9.26%E -2.61%K -3.63%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-07 02:15
LiveScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.84%EV -12.20%E -4.79%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.63%EV -7.98%E -3.47%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.52%EV -14.38%E -4.29%K -6.12%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-09 09:45
Virgin Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.84%EV -12.20%E -4.79%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.63%EV -7.98%E -3.47%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.52%EV -14.38%E -4.29%K -6.12%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-09 09:44
PMU (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.84%EV -12.20%E -4.79%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.63%EV -7.98%E -3.47%K -6.13%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.52%EV -14.38%E -4.29%K -6.12%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-09 09:45
NetBet (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.19%EV -12.20%E -4.79%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 40.17%EV -13.18%E -6.07%K -11.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.64%EV -13.10%E -3.85%K -5.46%G +0.000%14.7%2026-09-09 16:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.17%EV -13.93%E -5.57%K -9.28%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.99%EV -4.77%E -2.01%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.84%EV -10.54%E -3.01%K -4.22%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-05 23:05
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.17%EV -13.93%E -5.57%K -9.28%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.99%EV -4.77%E -2.01%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.84%EV -10.54%E -3.01%K -4.22%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-05 23:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -13.93%E -5.57%K -9.28%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 38.09%EV -5.17%E -2.18%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -10.54%E -3.01%K -4.22%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-05 23:05
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -13.93%E -5.57%K -9.28%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 38.09%EV -5.17%E -2.18%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -10.54%E -3.01%K -4.22%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-05 23:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.08%EV -13.93%E -5.57%K -9.28%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.86%EV -11.98%E -5.44%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.06%EV -10.54%E -3.01%K -4.22%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-07 02:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.86I 34.97%NM 34.31%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.21%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.48%1.9%2026-09-09 13:15
Matchbook◎2.78I 35.97%NM 34.60%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.08%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.31%4.0%2026-09-09 17:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.76I 36.23%NM 34.77%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.98%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.25%4.2%2026-09-09 17:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.76I 36.23%NM 34.77%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.98%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.25%4.2%2026-09-09 17:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.76I 36.23%NM 34.77%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.98%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.25%4.2%2026-09-09 17:40
Smarkets◎2.74I 36.50%NM 34.82%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.08%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.10%4.8%2026-09-09 16:21