Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

SV Darmstadt 98 v Arminia Bielefeld

2026-09-11 16:30 UTC — Bundesliga 2 - Germany

Resultado del partido

46 corredores (14 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

SV Darmstadt 98 (Local)

Predicción 35.14%2.85momio equitativo
EV -0.898%
Ventaja -0.318%
Kelly -0.493%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.82

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
33.83%35.18%35.17%36.84%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.402.562.552.8241.67%39.03%39.22%35.46%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Arminia Bielefeld (Visitante)

Predicción 39.34%2.54momio equitativo
EV -1.65%
Ventaja -0.661%
Kelly -1.10%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.09%39.27%39.33%40.59%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.152.372.382.5046.51%42.22%42.02%40.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 25.52%3.92momio equitativo
EV -3.03%
Ventaja -0.798%
Kelly -1.08%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.89%25.55%25.50%26.39%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.303.563.603.8030.30%28.09%27.78%26.32%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: SV Darmstadt 98 (Local): 35.14%; Arminia Bielefeld (Visitante): 39.34%; Empate: 25.52%. Para SV Darmstadt 98 (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.85. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 2.82, con un valor esperado de -0.898%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (46 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 33.83%EV -0.898%E -0.318%K -0.493%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.59%EV -7.55%E -3.21%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.58%EV -4.82%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-05 23:05
Suprabets🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 33.90%EV -4.06%E -1.49%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.24%EV -9.52%E -4.14%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 25.85%EV -8.65%E -2.41%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-05 23:01
Unibet (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -5.12%E -1.89%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.63%EV -7.55%E -3.21%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -8.13%E -2.26%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-05 23:04
Coolbet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.86%EV -6.87%E -2.59%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.79%EV -3.62%E -1.48%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.34%EV -4.31%E -1.15%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-05 23:05
Fanatics🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.69%EV -6.87%E -2.59%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.41%EV -5.59%E -2.33%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -3.03%E -0.798%K -1.08%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-05 23:05
Tipico (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.46%EV -6.87%E -2.59%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.15%EV -5.59%E -2.33%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -5.58%E -1.51%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-06 01:05
1xBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.46%EV -6.87%E -2.59%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.15%EV -5.59%E -2.33%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -5.58%E -1.51%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-05 23:04
LeoVegas🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.50%EV -6.87%E -2.59%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.75%EV -9.52%E -4.14%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.75%EV -9.41%E -2.65%K -3.69%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-06 02:05
NordicBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.36%EV -6.87%E -2.59%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.25%EV -8.73%E -3.76%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.39%EV -11.96%E -3.47%K -4.88%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-05 23:05
Betsson🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.36%EV -6.87%E -2.59%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.25%EV -8.73%E -3.76%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.39%EV -11.96%E -3.47%K -4.88%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-05 23:03
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.63%EV -7.58%E -2.88%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.04%EV -5.59%E -2.33%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -5.58%E -1.51%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-05 23:04
betano_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -7.93%E -3.03%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.73%EV -9.52%E -4.14%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -8.13%E -2.26%K -3.13%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-06 02:08
Bet Victor🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -7.93%E -3.03%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.73%EV -9.52%E -4.14%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -8.13%E -2.26%K -3.13%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-06 02:08
BetMGM🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.18%EV -8.63%E -3.32%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%EV -3.62%E -1.48%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -5.58%E -1.51%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-05 23:04
SportsBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.89%EV -8.63%E -3.32%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -5.59%E -2.33%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -5.58%E -1.51%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-05 23:05
FanDuel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.89%EV -8.63%E -3.32%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -5.59%E -2.33%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -5.58%E -1.51%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-05 23:04
betfred_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.53%EV -8.63%E -3.32%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.81%EV -6.37%E -2.68%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.66%EV -8.13%E -2.26%K -3.13%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-05 23:05
theScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.50%EV -8.63%E -3.32%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.87%EV -11.49%E -5.11%K -9.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.63%EV -10.69%E -3.05%K -4.27%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-05 23:05
Betclic (FR)🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 34.07%EV -9.68%E -3.77%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 40.17%EV -14.24%E -6.53%K -12.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.76%EV -13.24%E -3.89%K -5.52%G +0.000%14.2%2026-09-05 23:05
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -10.39%E -4.07%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.39%EV -1.65%E -0.661%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -8.13%E -2.26%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-05 23:05
Casumo🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -10.39%E -4.07%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.39%EV -1.65%E -0.661%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -8.13%E -2.26%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-05 23:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -10.39%E -4.07%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.39%EV -1.65%E -0.661%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -8.13%E -2.26%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-05 23:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -10.39%E -4.07%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.39%EV -1.65%E -0.661%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -8.13%E -2.26%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-05 23:04
Grosvenor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -10.39%E -4.07%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.39%EV -1.65%E -0.661%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -8.13%E -2.26%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-05 23:05
betPARX🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -10.39%E -4.07%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.39%EV -1.65%E -0.661%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -8.13%E -2.26%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-05 23:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -10.39%E -4.07%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.39%EV -1.65%E -0.661%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -8.13%E -2.26%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-05 23:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -10.39%E -4.07%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.39%EV -1.65%E -0.661%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -8.13%E -2.26%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-05 23:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.34%EV -10.39%E -4.07%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.61%EV -5.59%E -2.33%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -5.58%E -1.51%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-05 23:05
Betr (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.34%EV -10.39%E -4.07%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.61%EV -5.59%E -2.33%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -5.58%E -1.51%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-05 23:05
Bovada🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.80%EV -10.39%E -4.07%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.84%EV -7.55%E -3.21%K -5.59%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -8.13%E -2.26%K -3.13%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-05 23:03
NetBet (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.19%EV -10.39%E -4.07%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 40.17%EV -14.63%E -6.74%K -12.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.64%EV -13.24%E -3.89%K -5.52%G +0.000%14.7%2026-09-06 01:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.06%EV -10.39%E -4.07%K -6.70%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.40%EV -15.42%E -7.17%K -13.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.54%EV -13.24%E -3.89%K -5.52%G +0.000%15.1%2026-09-05 23:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.17%EV -12.14%E -4.86%K -8.10%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.99%EV -6.37%E -2.68%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.84%EV -10.69%E -3.05%K -4.27%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-05 23:05
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.17%EV -12.14%E -4.86%K -8.10%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.99%EV -6.37%E -2.68%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.84%EV -10.69%E -3.05%K -4.27%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-05 23:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -12.14%E -4.86%K -8.10%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 38.09%EV -6.77%E -2.85%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -10.69%E -3.05%K -4.27%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-05 23:05
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -12.14%E -4.86%K -8.10%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 38.09%EV -6.77%E -2.85%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -10.69%E -3.05%K -4.27%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-05 23:05
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.95%EV -12.14%E -4.86%K -8.10%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.08%EV -9.52%E -4.14%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -8.13%E -2.26%K -3.13%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-05 23:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.08%EV -12.14%E -4.86%K -8.10%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.86%EV -13.45%E -6.12%K -11.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.06%EV -10.69%E -3.05%K -4.27%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-05 23:05
TABtouch🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.50%EV -12.85%E -5.18%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.26%EV -4.41%E -1.81%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.24%EV -11.96%E -3.47%K -4.88%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-05 23:04
BetRivers🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.79%EV -13.90%E -5.67%K -9.59%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.09%EV -4.41%E -1.81%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.12%EV -11.96%E -3.47%K -4.88%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-05 23:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.79%EV -13.90%E -5.67%K -9.59%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.09%EV -4.41%E -1.81%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.12%EV -11.96%E -3.47%K -4.88%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-05 23:04
Sky Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.32%EV -13.90%E -5.67%K -9.59%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.46%EV -11.49%E -5.11%K -9.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.22%EV -15.79%E -4.78%K -6.87%G +0.000%15.6%2026-09-05 23:04
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 34.96%EV -13.90%E -5.67%K -9.59%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 39.84%EV -15.42%E -7.17%K -13.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.19%EV -13.24%E -3.89%K -5.52%G +0.000%16.7%2026-09-05 23:04
LiveScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.84%EV -15.66%E -6.52%K -11.18%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.15%EV -6.37%E -2.68%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.01%EV -13.24%E -3.89%K -5.52%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-05 23:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.84%EV -15.66%E -6.52%K -11.18%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.15%EV -6.37%E -2.68%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.01%EV -13.24%E -3.89%K -5.52%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-05 23:05
PMU (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.84%EV -15.66%E -6.52%K -11.18%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.15%EV -6.37%E -2.68%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.01%EV -13.24%E -3.89%K -5.52%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-05 23:04
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.78I 35.97%NM 34.25%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.69%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.06%5.0%2026-09-05 23:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.78I 35.97%NM 34.25%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.69%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.06%5.0%2026-09-05 23:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.78I 35.97%NM 34.25%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.69%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.06%5.0%2026-09-05 23:05
Smarkets2.74I 36.50%NM 34.34%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.56%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.09%6.3%2026-09-05 23:05